Here is the 2nd half of 2010 Election Night for the Celebrity Senate. This part of the diary picks up at roughly 9pm Eastern.
The Celebrity Senate 2010 Elections, Part 1
9PM Eastern –
New York – This race started out very high-profile, and it was a crash course all the way. Real estate billionaire Donald Trump declared for the race very early on, and sitting senator Jennifer Lopez was unchallenged in the primary. The debates in this race got very, very personal and the attack ads were downright ridiculous and totally vicious as both Trump and Lopez waged no holds barred political warfare from start to finish. Trump finally went too far late in the race, going after J.Lo for her divorce proceedings with Marc Anthony and insinuating that she was a lesbian and therefore a godless abomination. While he trailed slightly most of the way, his numbers cratered after this, and Lopez crushed him in not only NYC but also in Buffalo, Rochester, and other cities while streaming to a 60-39 victory on election night.
Wisconsin – The badger state was home to a pretty heated contest in the general election. Democrat Danica Patrick, a very outspoken and brash voice that often infuriated her critics, and her allies with her independence and racy attitude, was never really popular. The republicans didn’t have to look far for their preferred candidate, as Packers head coach Mike McCarthy got into the race early and cleared the field. McCarthy matched Patrick’s vicious, attacking style early in the race, unleashing zingers left and right before convinced by strategists that he didn’t need to do so. Patrick only got more desperate as the national mood moved the polls toward McCarthy, and she went down by a 54-45 count. McCarthy, as you would imagine, did best in the Green Bay-based 8th CD, winning 62% of the vote there including an incredible 66% in Brown county, which was actually better than he put up in Waukesha county.
Current Count – R+5
Louisiana – This had the looks of a brutal race for Team Blue from the very beginning, as Drew Brees was one of the most popular senators in the country following a Super Bowl championship in early 2010. Furthermore, Brees, once a hard-core republican had taken a bit of a leftward tack since arriving in New Orleans. So understandably, the Saints QB thought he was going to skate by but surprisingly the democrats put up a top tier challenger in actress Reese Witherspoon, who jumped in at the last minute before the filing deadline. The race was actually quite amicable, with very few negative ads except for those launched late by the NRSC tying Witherspoon to Obama (not really hard to do, they could have just used scenes from Legally Blonde 2). Brees ultimately won the contest by a 57-42 score, the year and his personal popularity in the NOLA region just too much for Witherspoon to overcome.
Oklahoma – In what was the reddest state in the nation in 2010, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Norris was up for re-election. I don’t think I need to explain why this race went unopposed.
Kansas – Melissa Etheridge, one of three LGBT members of the Senate, along with Johnny Weir of Delaware and Ellen Degeneres of Louisiana, was set to face a tough re-election no matter what following her shocking special election triumph in 2006. But in what was developing into a tough year for Team Blue nationally, her odds seemed to go from long to infinitesimal. That was especially true after Kansas City Royals legend George Brett jumped into the race and cleared the field on the republican side. Brett swept up support in all corners of the state and went on to crush Etheridge by a 61-38 score. Etheridge actually held the line pretty well in greater KC, winning her home county of Leavenworth as well as hanging even in the 3rd congressional district, but in the rural red county, yeouch.
Current Count – R+6
South Dakota – Former wrestler turned MMA fighter Brock Lesnar was a great fit for his home state, and as it turns out, he’ll be around for six more years as this race went unopposed.
North Dakota – The race between democrat Jennifer Baumgardner and republican Greg Raymer is too close to call!
Colorado – The race between democrat Lindsey Vonn and republican Heidi Montag is too close to call!
Arizona – Democrat Steven Spielberg won this seat in 1998 and retained it in 2004, but his connections to the state had been dwindling away as he spent less and less time there. That and the national environment plus the pinkish tint of the electorate gave the republicans a great chance here. Three months before the primary they landed their preferred candidate, former Cardinals QB and noted Christian conservative Kurt Warner. The campaign against the oft-aloof Spielberg got tied down into the anti-immigration fight brewing thanks to SB 1070, shifting more support toward Warner. In the end, Spielberg was able to perform eloquently in the debates and overperformed among richer Arizonans, but got absolutely crushed by the lower-income, white Christian crowd, which went hard for Warner in his 54-44 victory.
Current count – R+7
9:08PM Eastern – We have a call in Connecticut!
Connecticut – Wrestler Paul Levesque stunned the political world with his open seat victory. His tough persona, led partly by his wrestling name, Hunter Hearst Helmsley, or Triple H, projected confidence in a climate that was hyped up within the wars following 9/11. But his war hawkish ways began to sour on the electorate as the climate turned in the democratic direction. Democrats began to line up for a shot at Levesque, whose approval ratings were still rather poor by early 2010. The democratic primary was a crowded 4-way affair, won in a plurality by actress Meg Ryan with 36%. The race was rather vicious at times, and the debates seemed less of a speech over the issues than smacktalk you might see backstage prior to a WWE match. In the end Ryan showed that she could play on Levesque’s turf, and though early returns looked good for Levesque, especially since Stamford (where WWE headquarters is) reported first, Ryan began slowly pulling ahead. At 9:08 she led by 4% with 76% in, and the race was called. The final count was Ryan 52 – Levesque 46, giving the Democrats their first pickup of the night.
Current count – R+6
9:41PM Eastern – We have a call in North Dakota!
North Dakota – What was expected to be a sleepy race overall became very animated several days into 2011 when legendary NBA coach Phil Jackson decided to retire, causing an open seat. The zenmaster’s departure prompted several D-listers on both sides to enter the race, but some bigger names came in just before the filing deadline. On the democratic side, noted author and feminist Jennifer Baumgartner jumped into the fray and won the primary going away. For the republicans, 2004 World Series of Poker champion Greg Raymer, a self-described libertarian supported by the tea party, got in and cleaned house in his primary. This race, which was surprisingly high profile for such a small state, saw a ton of television ads poured in by national committees, ostensibly due to the cheap media. Baumgartner’s firey tone contrasted with Raymer’s calm, collected nature, and perhaps this helped Raymer a bit on election night. Grand Forks and Fargo reported first, giving Baumgartner an early lead but once the more rural west came in Raymer took charge, and eventually won the race by a 53-47 count, giving the republicans their 6th pickup, and putting the overall score back to R+7
Current count – R+7
9:53PM Eastern – We have a call in North Carolina!
North Carolina – This was the site of one of the most high-profile races in the country, possible the single most high profile as two big names came in and cleared the primary field immediately. Michael Jordan jumped in for the Democrats, Richard Petty for the Republicans. The race was very close from the very beginning and despite the political environment, Jordan’s numbers really never wavered from this being a toss up race. The debates were very tight, and each shored up their bases, Jordan the urban areas and the black vote, Petty the rich suburbanites and the rural whites. On election night, Petty took the lead early, but then Raleigh reported and put Jordan ahead. Petty took the lead back with more rural and suburban Charlotte votes, but then Jordan pulled ahead again with a big number in Mecklenburg County. Finally, the Appalachian region reported, and Petty got the lead for good, leading by 3% with 92% in. Final count, Petty 51 – Jordan 48.
10pm Eastern –
Utah – Karl Malone was up for re-election this year, and he’s probably the only black man that could ever win a Senate election in Utah short of Clarence Thomas. As it was, he went unopposed.
South Carolina, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa, and Colorado are all still too close to call.
SC – Upton 49%, Colbert 48% with 81% in
MD – Dreyfus 51%, Ripken 49% with 70% in
PA – Swift 52%, Miller 48% with 61% in
IL – Vedder 48%, Ditka 48% with 70% in
IA – Kutcher 50%, Flynn Boyle 48% with 35% in
CO – Montag 51%, Vonn 48% with 45% in
10:34PM Eastern – We have a call in Pennsylvania!
Pennsylvania – This race was going to be high-profile from the get-go. Taylor Swift, a one-time independent turned democrat, had expected to face some opposition on her left flank in the primary, but luckily for her nothing of note emerged and she got through against token opponents with 67%. The republican primary was a much rougher affair. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was actually the favorite before sexual misconduct allegations emerged in the summer of 2010, killing his candidacy. The primary was eventually won by actor and former MNF announcer Dennis Miller. With the general election set, the battle became a fight between the socially conservative/economically liberal west and the socially liberal/economically conservative east. Both candidates rang up huge numbers in their respective bases, Miller’s in Butler County, Swift’s in Berks County, winning those by well over 20%. The regional divide was ostensible for much of the night, but ultimately Swift’s hold on the economically challenged, working-class whites in places like Harrisburg, Reading, Scranton, and Allentown, was tested but not blown over like it was in the west. Netting 90% in Philadelphia County sure helped too, as in the end, it was Swift 51 – Miller 49, and a huge victory for Team Blue.
11pm Eastern – It’s now 11 oclock on the East coast, and the final slate of states have now closed their polls. At this point, the republicans are up 7 seats, halfway to the mark they need to turn the majority. The Pacific states could be tough though, they have 2 seats to defend out west. So they’ll need to win a majority of those while sweeping the states still up for grabs. Really the path to the majority is to win 8 out of the following ten races…hold seats in California, Oregon, Idaho, Alaska, and Maryland, or pickup seats in South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. Honestly It would’ve been easier for them to pick up Indiana and Pennsylvania, than to hold CA, OR, or MD, so those two races were real backbreakers. Regardless though, Team Red is going to gain seats, it is just a matter of how many.
Oregon – The race between democrat Ann Curry and republican Tonya Harding is too close to call!
Nevada – The race between democrat Andre Agassi and republican Kurt Busch is too close to call!
Washington – Ken Jennings, an unabashed academic who had a habit of occasionally annoying the leadership and his opponents with his tone, was nevertheless fairly popular at home. His race became a proxy on the fight between pragmatic intellect and passionate naivety when conservative blowhard Glenn Beck jumped into the race and immediately cleared the primary field. Beck saw fundraising money from sea to shining sea pour into his coffers, and early on his advertising blitz combined with the national environment got this race into the mid single digits. But once the debates began, Jennings understandably made Beck look like a blithering idiot. Beck’s approach seemed to shout louder when called out on his lack of leadership and good judgment. By election night this one was over, Jennings won this one easily by a 57-42 count.
California – Julie Foudy, a former US soccer star who benefitted from a very divided democratic primary and a good year nationally in 2004 to win her Senate seat, was hoping for a similar result this year. As it turned out she did get both to fall in her favor, as the republicans had a good year nationally, and the democratic primary was a free for all, with 6 entrants in total. In the end, the race boiled down between actor Jake Gyllenhall and performing artist Katy Perry. The race though, ended up being fairly amicable, at least between the frontrunners. Ultimately, Perry triumphed with 40% of the vote to Gyllenhall’s 35%, with the other candidates getting the rest. Foudy held her own during the campaign, but she faced an uphill battle, especially with environmentalists, who had been gunning hard for Foudy since day 1. In the end, the democratic tilt of California came through. Perry racked up some big numbers on the coast, winning San Diego County outright and scoring 72% in LA County to negate some big Foudy numbers in the inland areas, winning 54-45 and giving democrats their 2nd pickup of the night, clinching majority.
Current count – R+6
Alaska – Republican Curt Schilling went unchallenged in 2010, he earns another 6-year term.
Hawaii – Nicole Kidman’s retirement from the Senate forced an open seat here. The republican primary was a snoozer early, with no local candidates wanting to take the plunge. Finally, a semi-carpetbagger, actor Tom Selleck, took the plunge and cleared the field. The democratic primary, as you would imagine turned into a crowded affair. The main battle soon boiled down to a 2-way between actress Bette Midler and performing artist Nicole Sherzinger. The race was razor-tight, and ended up having to go to a recount before Midler came out on top by a 45.7-45.5 count with the other candidates getting the rest. Sherzinger took the loss particularly hard, not allowing herself to even be seen in the media for weeks, prompting speculation that she might try to derail Midler’s candidacy. But that turned out to be unfounded, and largely by emphasizing her deep roots within the state, Midler built a lead that she never relinquished, winning by a wide 60-38 margin over Selleck.
At 11pm here’s the vote with the states still out:
South Carolina – Upton 48.7 – Colbert 48.6, 98% in
Maryland – Ripken 50.3 – Dreyfus 49.7, 95% in
Illinois – Ditka 51.1 – Vedder 48.6, 88% in
Iowa – Kutcher 50.2 – Flynn Boyle 48.3, 66% in
Colorado – Vonn 51.7 – Montag 47.5, 72% in
11:13pm – We have a call in Colorado!
Colorado – This quintessentially swing state was the scene of a democratic wave in 2008, but even before that, Olympic skier Lindsey Vonn had already built up quite a profile. With her no b.s. style of telling it like it is, she made many friends but also many enemies, and the republicans tried hard to take her out. The only problem was that their primary became an ugly affair that was ultimately won by a less than stellar candidate, reality tv maven Heidi Montag. As was the case with many other races, the “intelligence factor” just wasn’t there for the GOP, many voters here wanted to go red but were just turned off by Montag’s tone and general lack of knowledge on many issues. Vonn held her own in the debates and went into election night with a small lead, which she kept, winning 51-47. Key to Vonn’s coalition were big numbers in Denver and Boulder, but also her domination in the ski resort-heavy 3rd congressional district, where she put up an amazing 54% of the vote. Along with Indiana and Pennsylvania, Colorado is definitely the 3rd missed opportunity of the night for the GOP.
11:24pm – We have a call in Illinois!
Illinois – Democrat Eddie Vedder was not even fairly well known compared to most senators, and thus had a low profile going into 2010. That wasn’t a bad thing in a blue state, unless the GOP could find their diamond in the rough. Well in this state, they did, as right before the filing deadline, former Bears head coach and ESPN analyst Mike Ditka got into the race, clearing the primary field immediately. This vaulted the race into top-tier status and the money began to flow on both sides, permeating the hugely expensive Chicago media market for more than 2 months at the end of the campaign. Ditka did very well in the debates and kept himself composed and close to the vest, refusing to answer any controversial questions about ideology. His strategy was a good one, as he was able to withstand some early numbers from Chicago, actually overperforming by quite a bit, especially in the precincts near Soldier Field. By 10:30pm he had taken the lead with some strong numbers in Dupage, Kane, Lake, and Will counties. Vedder fought back briefly as places like Champaign and Bloomington downstate reported, but as the rurals finally came in, Ditka moved too far ahead, ultimately winning by a 51-49 count, putting the Republicans up to R+7 for the 3rd time.
Current count – R+7
11:54pm – We have a call in Oregon!
Oregon – Republican Tanya Harding, a 2-term senator who had won her elections when Oregon was a bit more red than today, was a vulnerable target going into 2010, her big mouth causing a lot of her problems. The democrats initially had a hard time coming up with a candidate but ended up with a pretty good one in NBC anchor Ann Curry. The two women went after one another hard, Curry bashing Harding for being a loudmouth and an embarrassment to the state, and Harding against Curry for being part of a liberal media conspiracy to submerge the people’s will. As you can imagine, this race got ugly, with tons of negative ads thrown Curry’s way in the final few weeks, to which she responded ferociously. On election night, Harding actually had the lead early thanks to the early precincts coming in from the western part of the state, but once the bigger cities like Eugene and Portland started reporting after 11, it was obvious that Harding was going down to defeat. Curry eventually won by a 53-46 count, padding her margin several days after the vote thanks to absentees, most of them in Multnomah County, which went for Curry with 83%. The result gave the democrats their third pickup of the night, a rarity in a supposed “wave election” against them.
Current Count – R+6
At 12am Eastern, here’s the vote on the remaining races, two of which appear headed to recount, pending a very long ganja break in South Carolina.
South Carolina – Upton 48.7 – Colbert 48.6 – 98% in – remaining votes appear to be out in Spartanburg and Charleston
Iowa – Kutcher 49.4 – Flynn Boyle 48.6 – 89% in
Maryland – Ripken 50.1 – Dreyfus 49.9 – 99% in – remaining votes appear to be out in Baltimore
Nevada – Busch 51 – Agassi 48 – 38% in
12:11am – We have a call in Iowa!
Iowa – Ashton Kutcher, prior to his cheating scandal which broke in 2011, was a fairly popular senator and was noted for his activism for progressive goals. In this very politically astute state, the republicans tried to take him out and nominated actress Lara Flynn Boyle. The race between the two Midwesterners turned Hollywood starlets was a close one all the way. On election night, both candidates did well in their respective bases, with Flynn Boyle overperforming in the Quad Cities are while Kutcher cleaned up in Iowa City and Des Moines, getting 75% in Johnson County and 58% in Polk County. The late votes kept the race close but a little bit after midnight the race was finally called for Kutcher, who hung on with a 50-49 victory. Along with Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Colorado, this will be a race in which the Republicans will bemoan their failures because they very well could’ve picked this one up. Kutcher is in hot water with the ethics committee currently but its doubtful he’ll resign.
12:56am – We have a call in Nevada!
Nevada – Andre Agassi was always an animated, interesting voice in the Senate. In Nevada, which never really seems to like its politicians, he was always on his toes. The republicans saw him as gaffe-prone, and with a good national environment saw a great chance to take him out. Their first few choices declined to get in the race, but nascar driver Kurt Busch did. Busch, a hyper conservative that drew a lot of support from the tea party, could never seem to run a smooth campaign. The debates were choppy on both sides with plenty of gaffes from each. The ads in the race were extremely negative in the late going, with both combatants claiming the other to be too extreme for Nevada. On election night, Busch grabbed the early lead thanks to the rural counties reporting first, but once Clark County and Las Vegas began to report, Agassi took over the lead. Washoe County came in and didn’t provide great numbers for Busch in fact he lost it outright by 2%, which was key in Agassi’s 52-47 victory.
2am – The final two races ended up going to recount…and several days later once the absentees were in and counted we had our results.
Maryland - This was a very high-profile open seat race as Republican Tom Clancy stepped away. The democratic field emerged quickly, but was never really a contest as actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus emerged as the standard bearer. Her candidacy looked imposing, and in such a blue state, the republicans felt they could only count on one man to save the seat. That one man, former Baltimore Orioles infielder Cal Ripken, got into the race right before the filing deadline, and was unchallenged in the primary. The democratic nominee turned out to be actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus. In a very interesting race, Ripken’s popularity never really seemed to mesh well with Maryland’s democratic lean, and Dreyfus held a small lead for most of the race. But the national mood made this a toss-up race going into election night. On election night, Dreyfus swept the DC suburbs and even held the margins to manageable depths in the Eastern Shore. She looked to be headed toward victory but then Baltimore reported and in a bit of a shock, the numbers were awful for her, underperforming Obama in Baltimore city by upwards of 15%. Ripken took a surprisingly good total of the minorities in Baltimore and perhaps from the goodwill from his days with the Orioles, won Baltimore county outright and did just enough to eke out a 50.1-49.9 win, keeping the seat in Republican hands. Dreyfus elected to stand down following the automatic recount confirmed the election night totals.
South Carolina – This race ended up being the classic example of why candidates and campaigns matter. Stephen Colbert, perhaps the darling of the democratic netroots as well as young people all across the country in what is often referred to as “Colbert Nation”, had the unfortunate truth of having to seek re-election in a red state. The republicans gunned hard for him and it appeared that the ole ball coach, Steve Spurrier, would save the day as he got in early. But since he comes from old dixiecrat lineage and can be a bit of a pragmatist, conservative republicans and tea partiers were never satisfied with him, and instead looked for an alternative, which they found in Caitlin Upton. Upton, more commonly known as “Miss Teen South Carolina” for her ridiculous answers in the Miss Teen USA Pageant, spewed out rhetoric and raw beliefs that would make most intellectuals cringe. But amazingly, she beat Spurrier 53 to 47 in the primary, mostly due to sweeping the piedmont region, undoing his big advantage in Columbia. The general election debates were a riot to watch, obviously. But many republicans stayed behind Upton, claiming the media to be hugely biased against her for various reasons. Colbert stayed cool and focused his efforts on the ground game, letting his name recognition speak for itself in terms of advertising…a dangerous move since Upton went hard negative on him from the start as did national committees. On election night, the vote was extremely close all night, mostly showing a small Upton lead. Colbert finally took the lead well after midnight with the last votes reporting in, leading by 238 votes out of over a million cast. During the recount process Upton pulled out just about every play in the Norm Coleman playbook, delaying certification, filing lawsuits about various ballots and processes, counting procedures, etc. Meanwhile Colbert took it in stride, claiming that “we’ll eat our Doritos from Charleston to Columbia to Spartanburg, all the way to DC”. Finally, in May after six months of drama, Upton’s last challenge was dismissed, and governor Nikki Haley certified the result, a 48.7-48.6 victory for Colbert to keep the seat in Democratic hands.
Final Result – Democrats 53 – Republicans 47 (republicans gain net of 6 seats, GOP picks up Kentucky, New Hampshire, Illinois, Kansas, Wisconsin, Missouri, Arkansas, Arizona, and North Dakota – DEMs pick up Connecticut, Oregon, and California.)