Senate 2012 Baseline Ratings:
So here we are, about eight and a half months before the 2012 elections. We’ve got a political eternity ahead of us, but it’s a great time to establish baseline ratings for the presidential, senate, and house races before most of the heavy cat fud and mudslinging gets brought out into the open. I’m starting with the Senate because the House map hasn’t been finalized yet.
2010 was the second time I did Senate race prognostications, and the first time in a public forum. It was a fairly strong night for me, but not a perfect one, as I correctly hit the 53-47 Democratic/Republican split of seats, but misfired on Pennsylvania and Nevada. (Note to self: never trust the pollsters in Nevada, they understate democratic performance by a huge margin)
For my ratings I utilize the same rating system as Charlie Cook, Safe, Likely, Lean, and Toss Up. I’ll start the overview in the Northeast and move westward.
The map:
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