The Celebrity Senate version 2.0 – The 2010 Elections - Part 1
Back in 2009, I created a diary on Swing State Project that outlined the US Senate if all the members were replaced and celebrities and famous people took their place. I did a lot of research during that time and found out the political leanings of many of our most popular figures of movies, sports, and the arts. This is the long-awaited follow up diary, outlining the 2010 celebrity senate elections.
Here's a link to my original 2009 diary on SSP: The Celebrity Senate: 111th congress
Here was the celebrity Senate of the 111th congress, with the seats up for election in 2010 in bold. Like the real congress it contained 59 democrats and 41 republicans. By the rules of my research, the celebrities did not have to currently reside in the state they represented but must have some strong connections to it. (A hard residency rule would've resulted in lots of C-listers in congress)
ME – Stephen King (D) & Joan Benoit Samuelson (R)
NH – Seth Meyers (D) & Sarah Silverman (D)
VT – Jim Cantore (D) & Lindsey Jacobellis (D)
MA – Conan Obrien (D) & Uma Thurman (D)
RI – John Cafferty (D) & Elisabeth Hasselbeck (R)
CT –Paul Levesque (R)& Seth McFarlane (D)
NY – Barbara Streisand (D) & Jennifer Lopez (D)
NJ – Bruce Springsteen (D) & Jon Bon Jovi (D)
PA –Taylor Swift (I)& Will Smith (D)
MD – Michael Phelps (D) & Tom Clancy (R)
DE – Johnny Weir (D) & Valerie Bertinelli (D)
VA – Dave Mathews (D) & Sandra Bullock (R)
NC – Chris Paul (D) & Jim Nantz (R)
SC –Stephen Colbert (D)& Vanna White (R)
GA –Jeff Foxworthy (R)& Herschel Walker (R)
AL - Nick Saban (R) & Charles Barkley (R)
FL –Chris Evert (R)& Hulk Hogan (D)
MS – Brett Favre (R) & Britney Spears (R)
TN – Hank Williams Jr. (R) & Miley Cyrus (I)
KY – George Clooney (D) & Ashley Judd (D)
WV – Lou Holtz (R) & Jennifer Garner (D)
OH – Lebron James (D) & Jim Tressel (R)
MI – Marshall Mathers (D) & Madonna Ciconne (D)
IN –John Mellancamp (D)& Peyton Manning (R)
IL – Oprah Winfrey (D) & Eddie Vedder (D)
WI – Frank Caliendo (D) & Danica Patrick (D)
MN – Vince Vaughn (R) & Jessica Biel (D)
IA –Ashton Kutcher (D)& Shawn Johnson (D)
MO –Albert Pujols (D)& Bob Costas (D)
AR – Billy Bob Thornton (D) & Maya Angelou (D)
LA – Ellen Degeneres (D) & Drew Brees (R)
TX – Beyonce Knowles (R) & Matthew McConaghey (R)
OK –Chuck Norris (R)& Phil McGraw (R)
KS –Melissa Etheridge (D)& Tom Watson (R)
NE – Daniel Whitney (R) & Tom Osbourne (R)
SD –Brock Lesnar (R)& Tom Brokaw (D)
ND – Phil Jackson (D) & Ed Schultz (D)
WY – Harrison Ford (D) & Rulon Gardner (R)
MT – Brent Musberger (R) & Levi Leipheimer (R)
CO – John Elway (R) & Lindsey Vonn (D)
NM – Demi Moore (D) & Brian Uhrlacher (R)
AZ – Phil Mickelson (R) & Steven Spielberg (D)
UT –Karl Malone (R)& Steve Young (R)
NV – Andre Agassi (D) & Jenna Jameson (D)
CA – Kevin Costner (D) & Julie Foudy (R)
ID – Lou Dobbs (R) & Chris Peterson (R)
OR – Matt Groening (D) & Tonya Harding (R)
WA –Ken Jennings (D)& Apolo Anton Ohno (D)
AK –Curt Schilling (R)& Valerie Plame (D)
HI –Nicole Kidman (D)& Bethany Hamilton (D)
And now, here goes the 2010 elections! The states go roughly from east to west according to poll closing times. Any states that were call-able based on the exit polling at close time are listed at their closing time. Any races too close to call are noted, and the write-up for that race will appear once the race is called.
7pm Eastern:
Vermont - In Vermont, one term Senator Lindsey Jacobellis decided not to run for re-election, creating an open seat situation. In an interesting twist, it turned into a winter sports battle as Jacobellis's teammate on the US olympic team, snowboarder Hannah Teter, decided to run for the seat. Former NHLer John LeClair ended up triumphing in the Republican primary. Though his early numbers looked promising, LeClair simply couldn't get over the top in a hugely blue state as Teter fought off accusations of nepotism and won the race by a 59-39 count.
Kentucky - Ashley Judd was one of the most vulnerable Senators going into the 2010 election cycle due to Barack Obama's unpopularity in the state and her personally crappy approvals, and the environment didn't help. The republican primary was a crowded affair and a close 3-way fight between singer Nick Lachey, commentator and former NFL receiver Chris Collinsworth and former NFL running back Shaun Alexander. In the end, Collinsworth was able to carry the Cincinnati-burb laden 4th CD by a huge margin due to his name rec in that area, and he edged out Alexander, a self described Christian conservative, by 3%. Race undoubtedly played a part in the outcome, as Alexander carried the more urban 3rd and 6th congressional districts. The general election ended up not being much of a contest, Collinsworth dismantled Judd by a 59-40 count, one of the worst defeats for a sitting senator in history.
Current count – R+1
Indiana – The race between democrat John Mellancamp and republican Steve Kroft is too close to call!
South Carolina – The race between democrat Stephen Colbert and republican Caitlin Upton is too close to call!
Georgia – Jeff Foxworthy was up for re-election here, and as it turned out, nobody stepped up to run against him on the Democratic side, so he won unopposed. It’s extremely unlikely he would have been in any danger anyhow.
Florida – This was a very intriguing race, especially early on. Conservative republicans in the state were never completely happy with Chris Evert’s occasional moderation, and as such, they attempted to take her out in the primary. Several unfulfilling folks got into the race and it looked like Evert would slide but right before the filing deadline, former quarterback Dan Marino announced his candidacy. Marino, picking up lots of tea party support, defeated Evert by almost 10%. Meanwhile on the democratic side, performing artist Gloria Estefan ran away with the nomination. The race was further turned upside down right before the filing deadline when actor Johnny Depp jumped in as an independent and caught fire because of his independent, almost libertarian views on things. What could’ve been a close 3-way race was turned off by the national mood though, which hit especially hard in Florida. Marino ended up winning by a 44-34-21 count with Estefan finishing 2nd and Depp 3rd. Estefan did extremely well in southeast Florida and did surprisingly well in Orlando and Tampa but got absolutely murdered in north Florida, Jacksonville, and the rural reaches elsewhere.
8pm Eastern:
New Hampshire - Sarah Silverman, one of the few jewish members of the Senate, looked to be pretty solid early on in her bid for re-election. The republican primary was not much of a contest, and was won by author Dan Brown. The race showed close polling early on and the debates made for an interesting battle of comedian wittiness against intellectual come-uppance. As the national environment trended away from Democrats, it did so especially hard in New Hampshire, pushing Brown ahead. Silverman ran a fairly effective campaign and would’ve probably held on in a neutral year but in the end, Brown defeated Silverman by a 54-46 count to give the Republicans their third pickup of the night.
Current Count – R+2
Maine – Joan Benoit Samuelson, a moderate female republican and one of the more popular senators in the country, went unchallenged in the primary and also in the general election. The democrats would have had no chance in this one.
Connecticut – The race between democrat Meg Ryan and republican Paul Levesque is too close to call!
Massachusetts – Uma Thurman’s retirement from the senate caused this race to be open, which given the year gave Republican strategists a rare chance to pick up a seat in the Bay State. But the democrats’ deep bench was their primary opposition. Matt Damon was heavily recruited, but he eventually gave his endorsement to fellow actor and friend Ben Affleck, who won the primary over comedian Dane Cook. The republicans nomination eventually went to actor and former performing artist Marc Wahlberg, a noted Christian conservative. The race appeared to be close early on but in the late going the partisan lean came through, along with a pair of strange and hideous ads launched by Wahlberg in the final weeks. Affleck won by a 58-41 count.
Pennsylvania – The race between democrat Taylor Swift and republican Dennis Miller is too close to call!
Delaware – actress Valerie Bertinelli was unchallenged in this race, she wins another 6 year term.
Maryland – The race between democrat Julia-Louis Dreyfus and republican Cal Ripken is too close to call!
North Carolina – The race between democrat Michael Jordan and republican Richard Petty is too close to call!
Alabama – No democrat stepped up to challenge republican Nick Saban. No surprise.
Ohio – This race was a bit daunting at first glance for the democrats, having to go up against uber-popular senator Jim Tressel. But in such a swing state, the dems shouldn’t have had such a difficult time finding a candidate. They went months without a standard bearer, before author Toni Morrison finally jumped in. Her candidacy was basically that of a sacrificial lamb against Tressel, who won every county in the state except for Lorain (morrison’s home), Lucas, Cuyahoga, and Mahoning en route to a 59-40 rout. Of course, Tressel would be in hot water for ethics violations early in 2011…that coupled with Lebron James’s expulsion from the Senate late in 2010 means we might have a pair of special elections in 2012. Stay tuned!
Illinois – The race between democrat Eddie Vedder and republican Mike Ditka is too close to call!
Missouri – This was perhaps the ugliest race in the nation in 2010. Democrat Albert Pujols, beloved in greater St Louis but almost universally hated in the rural white parts of the state, had always shown average favorable ratings and given Missouri’s light red tint, was headed for a tough re-election. The republican nomination fight was an ugly four way affair as each tried to angle for tea party support. It was won by author, game-show host and former Miss America Shandi Finessey. Finessey, a darling for movement conservatives, seemed tame and composed at first but the red meat came out in the last month. Her main case for victory seemed to be “Vote for me, I’m white, he’s a dirty Hispanic that supports illegal immigrant leaches…rawr!” Unfortunately, in a very red year, in a very white state, that case was more than enough as Finessey won by a 55-44 count. Pujols swept the STL area, even winning in red St Charles County and netting over 90% of the vote in St Louis city, but got absolutely destroyed in the rural areas, losing many counties by an 75-25 mark or worse, especially in the southwest near Springfield and Joplin and in the bootheel.
Current Count – R+3
Iowa – The race between democrat Ashton Kutcher and republican Lara Flynn Boyle is too close to call!
8:30PM Eastern –
Arkansas – Arkansas always had the potential to be a very ugly state in 2010 for Team Blue, and the democrats stumbled into an unexpected situation when Maya Angelou, one of the senate’s most liberal democrats and an African-American (she won the seat in a 2006 special election at the height of the Anti-Bush tide), decided not to be strictly a caretaker and run for re-election. This angered recording artist Kris Allen, who thought he had dibs on the seat. The primary was an interesting contest of young against old but also unfortunately white vs black, as Angelou racked up 99% of black democrats en route to a 50-49 heartstopper over Allen that took several days to confirm via absentee ballots. The republican primary wasn’t nearly as divisive, as Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cliff Lee, originally of Bentonville, won in a walk. The general election proceeded to be a joke, even more of a joke after Allen proved to be a very sore loser by remarking that Angelou was unelectable just weeks after the primary loss. Turns out in this case though, he was right. Lee won by a landslide 58-41 margin, Angelou carrying just Pulaski country and several heavily black counties along the Mississippi River.
Current Count – R+4
8:47PM Eastern – We have a call in Indiana!
Indiana - In this pinkish-red state, John Mellancamp was a rare breed, not only a democrat but an extremely popular one within the Hoosier State, with approvals near 60% about six months out from election day. For such a ripe pickup opportunity in terms of PVI, the republicans had an exceptionally hard time coming up with a candidate to face ole Cougar. They tried desperately to get former Colts head coach Tony Dungy into the race but he had no interest. Legendary Indiana basketball star Steve Alford was another target but he too refused to get in. In the end the primary was won by CBS news anchor Steve Kroft, probably their 5th or 6th option. In the end, Mellancamp had to sweat it out due to the bad environment but was able to scratch out a 52-47 victory on election night to keep the seat in the democratic column. Mellancamp’s victory was odd in that he underperformed Obama somewhat in Marion and Lake counties but did very well in the more rural 8th and 9th congressional districts, winning both outright and doing well in rural counties in much of the state excluding the Indy exurban donut.
So at this point, its a few minutes after 9 oclock on the East Coast, 6pm on the West Coast, and the Republicans have picked up 4 seats - Kentucky, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Arkansas. At this point Team Red needs to pick up 6 more to win control of the Senate while holding vulnerable seats in places like Connecticut, California, and Oregon. It's a longshot. From Team Blue's perspective, the night is off to a rocky start with the bad news in New Hampshire and Missouri (Kentucky and Arkansas were expected defeats), but the news from Indiana was a major morale boost as it cut off an important path to a republican majority. What will happen? Find out in...Part 2.