There's been quite a bit of fuss over some redistricting related news that came out of the buckeye state yesterday. Sources with the Plain Dealer and from the offices of democratic rep Marcy Kaptur of Toledo have spilled many details on what Ohio's congressional map could look like. Here's a recap of what we heard yesterday:
1.The Ohio GOP is shooting for a 12-4 map, which we were told all along was the most likely scenario.
2.Republicans Steve Austria of Beavercreek and Mike Turner of Dayton are being combined within one district. This district will likely cover all of Montgomery and Greene counties.
3.Democrats Marcy Kaptur of Toledo and Dennis Kucinich of Cleveland are being combined within one district. This district will hug the Lake Erie coast and combine parts of the two cities.
4.A democratic vote sink is being created in Columbus. This development was a bit of a shock to me, but is a very forward thinking and prudent move by the Ohio GOP given the city's growth and recent leftward swing.
5.Patrick Tiberi's district is being extended northward, into the north central reaches to take in cities like Marion, possibly Mansfield. It will have all of Licking County as well.
6.In exchange for the Columbus vote sink, Betty Sutton and Jim Renacci are being combined into one seat, in what could be a very competitive district stretching of southwestern Cuyahoga county down into Amish country south of Wooster.
7.Marcia Fudge's district will be extended into Akron in order to keep it majority black. Undoubtedly, this is one situation where the VRA hurts the democrats.
8.With Kaptur's district drawn in with Kucinich, Bob Latta takes in more unfriendly territory in Lucas county.
9.All of this is going to result in Jim Jordan's district being very ugly.
So, that's what we know. I put all of this information, excepting #9, into a new redistricting map, which is basically a guess as to what might emerge later this week. To the map:
Ohio North:
Ohio South:
Cleveland area:
Cincinnati area:
Columbus area:
Akron area:
District 1 - Dark Blue/Steve Chabot-R
McCain - 49.6%
Obama - 49.3%
PVI - - R+4
One of my goals here was to draw a McCain district that wasn't significantly different than the current OH-1. That's really not all that hard to do given the racial and economic divide in greater Cincinnati. Ultimately I gave Chabot more of the red suburbs north of town while some of the minority neighborhoods north and east of downtown get dropped. At R+4, this should be a much easier hold for Chabot though not completely safe.
District 2 - Green/Jean Schmidt-R
McCain - 55.6%
Obama - 42.9%
PVI - R+10
Schmidt's seat isn't significantly different from before. It loses parts of Warren County while picking up Clinton County and more of Scioto County. One of the considerations I had was not to weaken Schmidt too much since she's badly underperformed her district's lean in the past. At R+10, I don't think she's too endangered, and even if she were to lose, you'd figure the seat would flip back red with a more likeable republican 2 years later.
District 3 - Purple/Mike Turner-R vs Steve Austria-R
McCain - 49.3%
Obama - 49.2%
PVI - R+3
This district combines Turner and Austria, which definitely favors Turner given his seniority and the fact that his base in Dayton is much larger than Austria's. The district is also much more compact, taking in all of Montgomery and Greene counties with a sliver of Clark. At R+3 its now a 50/50 district from 2008 and could be interesting were it to become open, but Turner would have nothing to fear.
District 4 - Red/Jim Jordan-R
McCain - 53.7%
Obama - 44.2%
PVI - R+8
Now this district is ugly, as it was pretty much the leftovers district in the west after the Plain Dealer's/Kaptur's descriptions of Tiberi's and Latta's districts. It extends all the way from Champaign County, which includes Jordan's house, to Lorain County and even parts of western Cuyahoga! Because of the geography, I have to think the PVI and 54% McCain marks might be a bit misleading, because folks from places like Elyria, North Ridgeville, and North Olmsted are NOT going to be happy being represented by a guy from far away farm country.
District 5 - Yellow/Bob Latta-R
McCain - 49.3%
Obama - 49.0%
PVI - R+4
With Marcy Kaptur's district going east, Latta is forced to take in a lot more democratic territory in Lucas county. Places like Sylvania, Waterville, Holland, and even parts of Toledo's far west side are now in district 5. This drops the district from an 8-point McCain win to a 50/50 district in 2008. Personally I think Latta is a schmuck, and since this district is moving leftward, I think the Ohio GOP could be playing with fire here.
District 6 - Turquoise/Bill Johnson-R
McCain - 51.0%
Obama - 46.7%
PVI - R+5
One of my goals was to shore up Bill Johnson a bit and give him at least a 3-4% McCain win district, and this accomplishes that. I do that because this seat is very ancestrally democratic. He loses nearly all of Mahoning county to Ryan's district, and takes over more territory in the southeast of the state. I don't know exactly where Johnson lives, hopefully its not in Mahoning though I suppose I could adjust the lines slightly if needed. This seat would still be competitive, but probably an easier hold than before.
District 7 - Gray/Open-D
Obama - 68.0%
McCain - 30.4%
PVI - D+15
This is the Columbus vote sink, which would undoubtedly elect a democrat, and a liberal one at that. The final lines here might turn out differently, but for this I basically paralleled I-270 and stayed inside there when possible. Potential big names to run here could include former SOS Jennifer Brunner and Columbus mayor Curtis Coleman.
District 8 - Lavender/John Boehner-R
McCain - 65.1%
Obama - 33.4%
PVI - R+19
This is by far the most republican district in the state, about 5% more republican than before. It extends north to take in more rural territory since district 8's part of Montgomery was given to district 3. I don't know if they'll gerrymander a bit to unpack this seat, but either way this one's extremely safe.
District 9 - Aqua/Marcy Kaptur vs Dennis Kucinich-D
Obama - 64.2%
McCain - 34.3%
PVI - D+11
Here's the district connecting Toledo and Cleveland. The primary battle would be hugely dependant on what the lines come out to, the way I drew it the population is pretty equal between the two cities. Either way this is safely democratic.
District 10 - Pink/Tim Ryan-D
Obama - 59.4%
McCain - 38.6%
PVI - D+8
Tim Ryan's district changes a bit, and actually gets less democratic as it loses some minority sections of Akron to Fudge's district. It's further south into Mahoning county to accommodate shrinking population further north. The trendline in this district worries me, but I'd be surprised if it became competitive within the next 10 years. Its pretty ancestrally democratic too. Safe D.
District 11 - Olive Green/Marcia Fudge-D
Obama - 82.2%
McCain - 17.1%
PVI - D+29
Let me say that I hate this district. It's 50.6% black and takes in most of inner Akron along with most of Cleveland's east side. What this boils down to is racial gerrymandering disguised as a VRA district, and it doesn't represent communities of interest at all. But this is probably what we're going to get. Safe D, but a LOT of wasted votes.
District 12 - Light Blue/Patrick Tiberi-R
McCain - 56.2%
Obama - 42.3%
PVI - R+10
With Columbus getting its own district, Tiberi's seat extends north and east, taking in all of Marion, Knox, Morrow, and Licking counties as well as part of Richland. This is solidly red territory and as a result, Tiberi now has one of the most R districts in the state at 56% McCain. If I were the mapmakers, I'd push his district further east instead and give some of the red territory in the north to Gibbs, who really needs it. But the reports we're hearing doesn't seem to indicate that.
District 13 - Peach/Betty Sutton vs Jim Renacci-D/R
Obama - 49.6%
McCain - 49.0%
PVI - R+2
Now this is the marquee district of the whole map, because you have a D vs R general election fight between Sutton and Renacci, in a very competitive seat. One of the problems I had was southwest Cuyahoga county. All the democrats that couldn't fit in Kaptur/Kucinich's seat had to go somewhere, and though Jordan got a few of them, this district gets the majority of them. Sutton still has her west Summit county base as well. To balance that Renacci gets most of Medina county, all of Wayne, and even parts of hyper-red Holmes county. Obama won by less than 1% here in 2008, but many parts of this district are ancestrally democratic. Of the 12 seats the GOP thinks they should get, this is definitely the most marginal.
District 14 - Brown/Steven LaTourette
Obama - 49.8%
McCain 48.6%
PVI - R+2
Due to population loss this district had to expand a bit, and I tried to give LaTourette the least hostile territory possible, but even with that, it's nearly impossible to keep this a McCain district without excessive gerrymandering. LaTourette's pretty well entrenched and would be hard to beat, but once this seat is open, it could be a real headache for the republicans to hold at only R+2.
District 15 - Orange/Steve Stivers
McCain - 54.0%
Obama - 44.3%
PVI - R+8
The Columbus sink forces Stivers's district further west and a little bit southward as well into some democratic territory like Ross county. The majority of the district is wealthy red Columbus suburbs and exurbs as well as rural area though, and at R+8 this should be a fairly easy hold for Stivers.
District 16 - White/Bob Gibbs
McCain - 49.0%
Obama - 48.8%
PVI - R+3
If there's one seat that I'm not quite happy about, its Gibbs's. I wanted to protect Johnson, but by doing so and extending Tiberi's district to where the map describes, and by forcing Sutton and Renacci together, you're forcing Gibbs to take in most or all of Stark County while not balancing it with more red territory further west. This isn't how I would do it, but as it stands, it's now a 50/50 district from 2008, a drop from a 7-point McCain win. This seat isn't as ancestrally democratic as Johnson's, but either way Gibbs won't be happy with this map, especially if he had to face a democrat from Canton.
BOTTOM LINE:
You have 10 McCain districts and 6 Obama districts, of which 2 of the Obama seats are just barely D. That's the coalition on which the Ohio GOP expects to get their 12 seats. But a lot of their seats are marginal, especially Renacci's where he has to beat Sutton in an Obama district. Latta's district is now very interesting, as is Gibbs's. Turner and LaTourette are fine, but a retirement for either means those seats are in play as well. And I wouldn't say Chabot or Johnson is totally out of the woods yet either. Hence, the difficulties with gerrymandering a 50/50 state, there just aren't enough votes for your side to make everybody safe.
Solid R - 2, 4, 8, 12, 15
Likely R - 1, 3, 6, 14
Lean R - 5, 16
Toss Up - 13
Lean D - none
Likely D - none
Safe D - 7, 9, 10, 11