Welcome, members of Daily Kos Elections to StephenCLE's page, and my ongoing series on the "38 states of America". This series is an electoral politics based look at what the country would be like if the states were drawn by lines of communities of interest.
For those that don't know what the "38 states" are, or what the map looks like, which is probably most of you, here's the map:
Map - The 38 states of America
This series started on the old swing state project site back in May, the first three parts detailed the Northeast, Midwest, and Southeast Regions of the US. This fourth installment takes a look at the West region and will complete our state by state analysis. The fifth and final dairy in the series will take a macro look at the whole country heading into the 2012 presidential election cycle.
Recap of the states and their Cook/Sabato/Rothenberg-esque political ratings:
Northeast:
Kennebec - Solid Dem
Plymouth - Solid Dem
Mohawk - Toss Up
Hudson - Solid Dem
Susquehanna - Solid Dem
Chesapeake - Likely Dem
Allegheny - Leans Dem
Appalachia - Solid Rep
Midwest:
Erie - Solid Rep
Mackinac - Solid Dem
Wabash - Likely Rep
Dearborn - Solid Dem
Osage - Toss Up
Prairie - Likely Dem
Superior - Leans Dem
Dakota - Likely Rep
Platte - Solid Rep
Southeast:
Albemarle - Toss Up
Carolina - Likely Rep
Cumberland - Solid Rep
Piedmont - Likely Rep
Biscayne - Toss Up
Talladega - Solid Rep
Bayou - Solid Rep
Ozark - Solid Rep
Alamo - Solid Rep
West Region:
Cochise – (Arizona/New Mexico) – Total vote 2,919,091
Obama – 1,480,829 (50.7%)
McCain – 1,438,262 (49.3%)
PVI – R+2
Rating – Lean Republican
I had a hunch just by looking at the map that this state would be a very close one, potentially into recount territory, as it combined red Arizona with blue New Mexico. As luck would have it, a sliver of extreme western Texas around El Paso was added to the state, and that along with some red portions of both states being cut out, was enough to give Barack Obama an extremely tight 1% victory here. That makes it the closest state that we’ve seen so far. The Republicans have a fairly strong base in this state, and most of it is in the crazy red areas on the outskirts of Phoenix. They also do well in southern New Mexico and some of the outstate areas in Arizona. The democratic base is duel, coming mostly from cities but also from Indian reservations. Albuquerque, Santa Fe, El Paso, and inner Phoenix all have to be carried and by wide margins if the democratic candidate is to win Cochise. I’m not sure how much the McCain home state effect had on Cochise’s PVI, and I really thought about sticking it into Toss Up, but with a PVI of R+2 it probably does lean slightly republican in a neutral year. Still, you’d see tons of money and visits thrown Cochise’s way throughout the 2012 campaign.
San Luis – (Colorado & Western Great Plains) – Total vote 2,426,141
Obama – 1,264,736 (52.1%)
McCain – 1,161,405 (47.9%)
PVI – R+1
Rating – Toss Up
Our 2nd state in the West region, and it’s another barn-burner (it’ll probably be the last, don’t get used to it!) as Obama won here by a little over 4%. If you look at the county-level map of San Luis, you’d think it’s solidly republican, but most of the red counties fall in the relatively unpopulated western plains of Nebraska and Kansas. Part of Wyoming is in the state as well, but again, there’s just not enough population there to tip the balance. The republican candidate would have to run up a decent margin in the red parts of Colorado including Colorado Springs and parts of the western frontier and Denver’s southern suburban reaches. For the Democrats, the road map to victory is simple, run up big margins in your two bastions of Denver and Boulder, and then perform well enough to win in Denver’s suburban counties like Jefferson, Adams, and Arapahoe. If you’ve done that, you’ve probably won. As one of only two likely competitive states west of the Mississippi valley, you’d probably see a ton of money, visits, and campaign related agenda items thrown down in San Luis.
Bonneville – (Utah/Mormon Country) – Total Vote – 1,027,747
Obama – 376,180 (36.6%)
McCain – 651,567 (63.4%)
PVI – R+18
Rating – Solid Republican
Well, the race for 2nd reddest state in the nation ended up being an intense race between Cumberland, Bonneville, and Talladaga, and by a stock car length, it is Bonneville winning it at just over 63% McCain, though it still finishes behind Shawnee for #1. This state, which encompasses all of Utah along with some red parts of Nevada, Colorado, Idaho, and Wyoming, is pretty much the Mormon parts of America. With that comes lots and lots of straight-ticket R voters. Needless to say, if the democratic candidate is competitive in Bonneville, it’s a 1964-esque landslide in the making.
Bighorn – (West ND & SD, East MT) – Total Vote – 342,374
Obama – 141,607 (41.4%)
McCain – 200,767 (58.6%)
PVI – R+13
Rating – Solid Republican
Bighorn state is basically a conglomerate of like-minded areas in the high plains of the Dakotas and eastern Montana. It’s tiny compared to most states, and it’s also very red, with very few blue islands amid a sea of red on the county map. There’s really not much else to say as it’s probably the most low profile state on the map.
Bitteroot – (Idaho/West MT/East WA & OR) – Total Vote – 1,266,022
Obama – 537,796 (42.5%)
McCain – 728,226 (57.5%)
PVI – R+12
Rating – Solid Republican
Bitteroot state, named for the Bitteroot Mountains that run down the border of Idaho and Montana, is a solidly red state but I should point out that it had one of the bigger swings in the electorate between 2008 and 2012. In fact, Obama actually carried the portion of Montana in this state 145k to 144k, which helps his overall score. The problem is that the state is centered on Idaho, which is very, very red. The eastern parts of Washington and Oregon are very red as well.
Cascade – (Pacific Northwest Coast) – Total Vote – 3,950,810
Obama – 2,367,383 (59.9%)
McCain – 1,583,427 (40.1%)
PVI – D+7
Rating – Solid Democratic
Cascade state is our first on the Pacific Coast, and as the name suggests, the Cascade Mountains run along the eastern part of the state, with the ocean forming the west end. As a result, some of the more republican parts of Washington and Oregon were cut out, making the coastal cities of Seattle, Olympia, Portland, and Eugene even more dominant than in their present states. The pacific northwest pretty much resisted the red wave in 2010, and Cascade went even more heavily for Obama in 2008, so I’m calling this one Solid D.
El Dorado – (North CA/North NV) – Total Vote – 5,287,745
Obama – 3,420,755 (64.7%)
McCain – 1,866,990 (35.3%)
PVI – D+12
Rating – Solid Democratic
El Dorado state is centered on northern California, though it extends as far as central Nevada. Cities like Sacramento, San Francisco, Fresno, and Reno fall within the state. Due the extreme influence of the northern California coast, El Dorado is hugely democratic, one of the most liberal in the country if not the most. No republican would have a chance statewide here.
San Gabriel – (South CA/South NV) – Total Vote – 7,754,578
Obama – 4,583,424 (59.1%)
McCain – 3,171,154 (40.9%)
PVI – D+6
Rating – Likely Democratic
San Gabriel state is an interesting one that combines several dissimilar communities together in the southwest corner of the country. In here you’ve got the SoCal coastline, the Inland Empire, southern Nevada, and parts of Western Arizona all connected in a hodgepodge of sand dunes. This state is one that could go republican under the right circumstances, namely a year not like 2008, where Obama absolutely crushed McCain, winning in usually red counties like San Bernadino & Riverside, even coming close in Orange County. But to win, a republican would have to avoid getting murdered in Los Angeles County, would have to win most of the other counties outright, and squeeze out every vote in places like Yuma and Bakersfield. At 59% Obama in 2008, I’m calling this one Likely D, right on the cusp of what could possibly be considered competitive.
Kodiak – (Greater Alaska) – Total Vote – 315,116
Obama – 122,485 (38.9%)
McCain – 192,631 (61.1%)
PVI – R+15
Rating – Solid Republican
Kodiak state is pretty much the same as Alaska is now. The original permutation of the 38 states split Alaska into 2 states, Kodiak and Seward, but with Seward consisting mostly of snow-covered wilderness, I’m not sure it would even have enough population to be admitted as a state. So I’m calling Kodiak the whole state, and McCain crushed Obama here by 22%, in no small measure because of the presence of then-governor Sarah Palin. It’s hard to imagine most democratic candidates getting much of any traction here.
Kilauea – (Greater Hawaii) – Total Vote – 445,227
Obama – 324,918 (73.0%)
McCain – 120,309 (27.0%)
PVI – D+16
Rating – Solid Democratic
We finish out our analysis in the Pacific, in Hawaii, which for our purposes is now named Kilauea. Barack Obama absolutely destroyed John McCain here, and the state is also one of the most democratic in the nation. No national republican would have a chance here, George W Bush’s 45% share in 2004 is about best case scenario for Team Red.
So there you have it, we've now gone through each and every state in the Union of 38, which I've condensed to 37. We now have ratings and vote totals for every state, and in the final diary coming up we'll tally the electoral votes and see how each state would've voted in 2008, and which ones might be the ones that decide things in 2012.