This month marked the quarter pole of the 2011-2012 electoral cycle, and with it we are seeing things start to move at a rapid pace, most notably in that the newly elected republicans in the House and in State legislatures have kicked up a whirlwind of change wherever they've taken power. This has resulted in a lot of energy on both sides of the aisle for this early in the electoral cycle. We're also starting to see the results of redistricting start to trickle in - most notably with the massive map from Illinois today that was either a beautifully crafted work of art, or a hideous abstract straight from the black lagoon depending on which side of the aisle you frequent.
Last month I looked at the early baseline presidential ratings for 2012, this time I'm going to look at the Senate. A lot of these races haven't taken shape yet so it's hard to make a true prediction, but I'll assign my current ratings anyhow.
The Map:
Maine - Lean R. This race pretty much boils down to whether Olympia Snowe gets taken out in the primary by a more conservative challenger. If she does, the democrats will probably pick it up. This rating reflects the middle, where I think there's about a 35% chance Snowe will ultimately lose the primary.
Vermont - Solid D. Bernie Sanders is untouchable. Next.
Massachusetts - Toss Up. Despite some early non-movement on the democratic side and some good polling for Scott Brown, 2012 is already shaping up to be at least a somewhat difficult cycle for Team Red. I remain very bullish on this race because I have a very hard time seeing how Brown will win in a presidential year where he'll have to win at minimum 20% of Obama voters while bleeding none of the R presidential candidates votes. He may have been able to win over democrats in a low turnout special election, but in a mass turnout election with control of the Senate on the line? Color me skeptical. The democrats would do well to get some heavier bodies into the contest though, I'm not sure that Setti Warren is the best we can do.
Rhode Island - Solid D. Sheldon Whitehouse wins easily. Next.
Connecticut - Solid D. This is technically a "competitive" open seat, but with two strong candidates in Chris Murphy and Susan Bysiewicz already in on the D side, it's nearly impossible to see a republican thread the needle here with presidential turnout.
New York - Solid D. Kirsten Gillibrand. Geez, another joke of a contest. Next.
Pennsylvania - Likely D. Bob Casey is polling very well and has generally been very popular ever since his election in 2006. The only thing that's giving me a bit of pause is Obama's continues unpopularity in Pennsylvania according to the polls, but its still a very big climb for Team Red here.
Delaware - Solid D. If Team Red couldn't win here in 2010, it'll never happen. That was a once in a lifetime opportunity R primary voters threw down the drain.
Maryland - Solid D. The Northeast sure is a democratic bastion. Next.
Virginia - Toss Up. Virginia looks to be a real dogfight this cycle as Jim Webb is retiring. Two very big names have already jumped in and basically cleared the primary field, former senator George Allen for the Republicans and former governor & DNC chair Tim Kaine for the democrats. Given Obama's popularity in Virginia and Kaine's strong favorables I almost want to put this into the Lean D column, but it's still too early in the game to regard this one as anything but a tossup.
Florida - Likely D. I'm torn on this one between Lean and Likely D, and I chose likely because of the 200-ton albatross in the room for the republicans, that being governor Rick Scott, thee of the 29/57 favorable/unfavorable. That along with presidential turnout basically means Bill Nelson will win, especially against the likes of Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, or Mike Haridopolis, all of whom are flawed candidates.
Ohio - Likely D. This is almost the same as Florida, Ohio has an extremely unpopular GOP governor in John Kasich (33/56 favorable/unfavorable) and a really terrible GOP field led by former SoS Kenneth Blackwell. Sherrod Brown won't have any trouble winning this race unless Kasich rehabilitates or Obama craters here.
Michigan - Likely D. Debbie Stabenow isn't quite as popular as Bill Nelson or Sherrod Brown, but her state is more democratic, plus the republicans just can't seem to be able to find a decent candidate to challenge her. I find it very hard to believe that Dems would lose a Senate race in Michigan with Obama likely cruising atop the ticket.
Indiana - Likely R. Now here's a race that really needs some further development. Richard Lugar is an institution in Indiana, if he makes it out of the primary he'll likely win another term. If he loses though, and unlike Maine the tea partiers here already have a legit candidate in state treasurer Richard Murdock, then this could be a big opportunity for Team Blue. IN-2 congresscritter Joe Donnelly is running for the democrats and could become this cycle's Chris Coons should Lugar lose the primary.
Tennessee - Likely R. Now I was going to put Bob Corker as a sure bet for re-election, but I caught wind of some polls early in the cycle that show vulnerabilities, especially the one that showed Phil Bredesen crushing him. While I don't think Bredesen will get in (oh that would be the delightful surprise of the 2012 cycle if he did), Corker only got 51% the last time around. If a credible democratic nominee gets in and the national environment is good for Team Blue, this could be the sleeper race of the cycle.
Mississippi - Solid R - Meh, no chance here. Next.
Wisconsin - Lean D. I start this open seat contest out at Lean D because of Wisconsin's greater democratic partisan lean compared to Virginia, and the fact that Team Blue has some very strong candidates that could get in, like WI-2 and WI-3 congresscritters Tammy Baldwin and Ron Kind. The republican frontrunner (if he wants it) is former govenor Tommy Thompson, who I've always thought of as weak-sauce. Unless Paul Ryan were to reverse course and run, I doubt this one goes down to the wire in a presidential year with all the energy in the world on the left's side in WI.
Minnesota - Solid D. Minnesota is a democratic state, and Amy Klobuchar is one of the strongest democrats in the Senate from both an electoral and a competency standpoint. The task of unseating her in a presidential year is herculean.
Missouri - Toss Up. This one could very well flip. Claire McCaskill is running in a state that seems to have shifted rightward, and the GOP landed a very strong recruit in MO-2 congresscritter Todd Akin. This race is already close, and will probably stay close throughout the cycle. Honestly I'd probably give a very slight edge to the GOP since I expect Obama to lose here, but McCaskill's been counted out before and won, so I'm not going to do that this early in the cycle.
North Dakota - Lean R. This is my 2nd most likely flip on the board so far. ND-1 congresscritter Rick Berg is already in the race for the Republicans and with Kent Conrad retiring in a presidential year, you have to figure that the GOP has the advantage. Team Blue will need a top tier candidate to jump in if they want to hold the seat, which probably means either Heidi Heitkamp or Earl Pomeroy.
Nebraska - Lean R. This is definitely my #1 most likely to flip right now, I almost put this one into Likely R territory. Ben Nelson is hated by a great many in Nebraska because of the stunts he pulled during the healthcare saga. Honestly, him voting for that legislation may have ended his career. The republicans have strong candidates waiting in the wings here, and in a presidential year, it's hard to see how Nelson survives.
Texas - Likely R. I really want to believe the democrats have a chance to flip this seat, but cmon, it's Texas. I'm not writing this one off completely, but it's going to be a very uphill climb no matter who emerges from the republican primary.
Montana - Toss Up. Here's a battle between two generally popular elected officials, democratic senator John Tester and MT-1 congresscritter Denny Rehberg. This has some very similar optics to the race in Virginia and that two high-profile guys are going at it, and that the state is competitive politically, even though MT is more conservative than VA. Tester pulled out a close race last time, and it looks like he'll have to repeat that feat this time around. Obama will likely contest the state, which will help.
Wyoming - Solid R. I suppose if Dave Freudenthal were to get in...nah.
Utah - Solid R. You know, you could have Orrin Hatch get teabagged, UT republicans could put Jim Matheson into an R+25 district with a GOP gerrymander, he'll say screw it, and run for Senate instead, Mitt Romney could lose the republican primary for president because of his mormonism, prompting an all-out desertion of the GOP by mormons, and Matheson could beat Jason Chaffetz or whoever as Obama pulls off the shock of the century and carries Utah. Or not, but it's fun to dream.
Arizona - Toss Up. Now this could be the one race of the cycle that depends most on candidates getting in or not. The bottom line is this. If a generic dem like Rodney Glassman, Ed Pastor, or Phil Gordon is the nominee, then Jeff Flake or whoever wins the republican nomination has the edge to win. If the democrat is Gabrielle Giffords though, this seat moves to Likely, maybe even Solid D. She's NOT losing if she gets in, period. It's that range of possibilities that puts this race into Toss Up for the time being while we wait on word from Gabby.
Nevada - Toss Up. This is my #3 most likely flip of the cycle. Shelley Berkley is running for the democrats against Dean Heller for the republicans, two long running congresscritters. Nevada has moved leftward very quickly, and ultimately, I think in a presidential year, Obama will win here again, and will give Berkley a decent boost. Heller's pretty popular for the most part though, we'll see if voting for the Ryan budget twice cuts into that.
California - Solid D. Nothing to see here. Move on people.
Washington - Solid D. The only chance for the republicans might be if AG Rob McKenna gets in, but it looks like he's running for governor instead. This state is just too blue for a generic R to have much of a chance in a presidential year.
Hawaii - Solid D. I know it's an open seat, and supposedly if Linda Lingle runs she'll have a fleeting shot against Mazie Hirono, but with Obama netting close to 70% again atop the ballot, she'd have to run a god-like campaign or have Hirono get embroiled in a scandal in order to win. Solid D.
Current Seat Flip Rankings - (with current party in parenthesis)
1.Nebraska (DEM)
2.North Dakota (DEM)
3.Nevada (GOP)
4.Missouri (DEM)
5.Massachusetts (GOP)
6.Montana (DEM)
7.Arizona (GOP)
8.Virginia (DEM)
9.Maine (GOP)
10.Wisconsin (DEM)