Hello DKE nation, and welcome to this penultimate edition of StephenCLE’s baseline House Rankings. So far we’ve gone through the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Coastal Southeast, Great Lakes, and Interior Southeast, leaving just 3 regions of our great country to go. In this diary we will hit 2 of these remaining 3 for a nice double feature. Today we start in the Central Plains, before finishing in the Rocky Mountains. The Central Plains features the states of Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. The Rocky Mountains cover the states of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and Idaho. In all, we will look at 65 seats.
Before we start, let’s recap where we are at currently:
We have some ratings changes from earlier regions…mostly due to polling. Here’s what we have:
NY-19 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt D to Likely R (this is now a republican hold)
IA-2 – moves from Likely D to Lean D
FL-2 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D (this is now a democratic pickup)
MI-8 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R
Republican pickups so far – NY-21, NC-7, WV-3
Democratic pickups so far – NY-11, FL-2, NJ-3, AR-2
National swing – D+1
MN-1 – Tim Walz-inc vs Aaron Miller
We start the Central Plains region in Minnesota. The first district takes in most of south MN, and is held by powerful democratic incumbent Tim Walz. This mostly rural seat has been carried by Obama twice but actually has an R+1 PVI. Account manager Aaron Miller is going up against Walz this November, but he’s got just $104k in the bank. Walz isn’t exactly setting the world on fire at $542k, but he did take out his opponent by 14% in 2012 as Obama was edging Romney by 1%. A republican upset isn’t impossible here, but it would be a surprise.
Rating – Likely D
MN-2 – Mike Obermueller vs John Kline-inc
This seat in suburban Minneapolis was razor-thin close in the 2012 presidential, with Barack Obama winning by .1%. It’s R+2 in PVI, and incumbent republican John Kline is pretty powerful. He defeated opponent Mike Obermueller by 8% in 2012. Obermueller is back for another shot at Kline, in what might not be as good a year nationally for his party, but he might get good performances from Al Franken and Mark Dayton up ticket. That being said, he’s up against Kline’s massive 1.68 million warchest, and he has just $289k in the bank. I have to say that Kline is definitely favored, but Obermueller is an established candidate with some decent resources. The incumbent will be tested here.
Rating – Lean R
MN-3 – Sharon Sund vs Erik Paulsen-inc
The third district sits in Minneapolis’s western suburbs. Obama carried this district twice, doing so by 1% in 2012. However, this seat is very, very ancestrally republican, and has proven a difficult nut for democrats to crack at the local level. Incumbent Erik Paulsen ran way ahead of his underfunded democratic challenger in 2012, winning by 17%. This year might be a little more hairy for him though, as democrats appear to have landed a credible challenger in Hennepin County DFL (Democratic-Farmer-Labor) chairwoman Sharon Sund. I’m not sure about her fundraising numbers as neither Ballotpedia nor DKE is tracking them, but I have to figure somebody in her position would be well connected with donors. This district is still an uphill climb for Congressional democrats, but Sund will definitely make Paulsen work harder than he had to in 2012.
Rating – Likely R
MN-4 – Betty McCollum-inc vs Sharna Wahlgren
The Saint Paul-based 4th district is very, very democratic in nature. Incumbent Betty McCollum should have it easy against underfunded challenger Sharna Wahlgren.
Rating – Safe D
MN-5 – Keith Ellison-inc vs Doug Daggett
The Minneapolis-based 5th district is the most democratic district in Minnesota. It’s a lock that Keith Ellison, one of the few muslim members of Congress, will retain his seat.
Rating – Safe D
MN-6 – Open seat race
This is Michelle Bachmann’s seat, or at least it was, but she is retiring this cycle. The open seat is being pursued by two strong republicans in 2010 gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer and Anoka County Commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah. At R+9, this seat is not what would normally be considered competitive, but it has seen many competitive contests in recent years due to Bachmann’s nuttiness. Democratic mayor of Sartell Joe Perske will hope that this phenomenon isn’t specific to her, and that he can continue to get voters that voted against Bachmann to vote against the winner of the republican primary. I think his odds of winning are slim, but if the republican primary is particularly nasty and he is able to get national support, maybe there’s a chance.
Rating – Likely R
MN-7 – Collin Peterson-inc vs Torrey Westrom
The 7th district takes in much of western Minnesota. It is a seat that leans pretty far toward the republicans, but also features a very powerful democratic incumbent in Collin Peterson. Peterson took out his republican opponent by 26% in 2012 while Mitt Romney was beating Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. That’s impressive. Republicans are running a pretty solid candidate in state senator Torrey Westrom. He seems to have some decent political skill and some decent cash on hand too at $328k. That being said, Peterson isn’t your ordinary incumbent. I can only see him losing if there is a massive red wave in November, but we’ll keep watching this one anyway.
Rating – Likely D
MN-8 – Rick Nolan-inc vs Stewart Mills
This district, which takes in Duluth and much of the Iron Range but also more conservative counties northeast of Minneapolis-Saint Paul, is the site of a competitive contest. Rick Nolan won this seat in 2012 over Chip Cravaack by 9%, and Barack Obama won here by 6%. Given that this is a marginally democratic seat with a freshman incumbent (though given his earlier term in Congress he’s not your typical freshman) you knew republicans were going to go hard after this seat. Businessman Stewart Mills is running for the seat for the republicans, and he’s been fundraising quite well, barely running behind Nolan at $429k to $579k. The issue for Mills is twofold though. This seat is more democratic at the local level than at the national level, and Minnesota, unlike a lot of states, is looking at a democratic romp at the top of the ticket. Those two factors are enough to put this race into Lean D territory, but Nolan certainly can’t sleep on this one.
Rating – Lean D
IA-1 – Pat Murphy vs Rod Blum
The first district in Iowa takes in most of the state’s northeast. At D+5, it is the most democratic district in the state, just a smidge ahead of the neighboring 2nd. Incumbent Bruce Braley is running for the open Senate seat vacated by Tom Harkin, so this seat is open as well. There were contested primaries on both sides. The democratic primary was won by state representative Pat Murphy, who appears to have a very solid political profile. The republican primary was won by Rod Blum, a software developer and business owner. Fundraising wise both combatants are fairly tapped out after the primary round, with Blum holding a small lead. PVI-wise, this isn’t exactly fertile territory for republicans, as it didn’t even fall in 2010, plus Murphy seems pretty capable.
Rating – Likely D
IA-2 – Dave Loebsack-inc vs Marinette Miller-Meeks
The second district takes in most of southeastern Iowa, including democratic bastions in the quad cities and in Iowa City. The seat is D+5 just like the first district. Here we have a rematch of 2010 brewing. Incumbent Dave Loebsack took out his republican opponent by 13% in 2012, right in line with Barack Obama’s win over Mitt Romney. Marinette Miller-Meeks, who came within 5% of unseating Loebsack in 2010, is back for another shot this time around. In the fundraising race, Loebsack leads $709k to $269k. I get the feeling that Loebsack isn’t the strongest incumbent out there, but if Miller-Meeks couldn’t win in 2010, I’m not sure how she intends to get it done this time around.
Rating – Likely D
IA-3 – Staci Appel vs David Young
The third district stretches from Des Moines to the Mississippi River. It’s virtually even in PVI, as Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 4%, right around his national win. Incumbent Tom Latham decided to retire, which opened this seat up. There was a contested primary on the republican side that ended up being thrown to a convention after nobody cleared 35% of the vote. Chuck Grassley’s former chief of staff, David Young, was chosen by the GOP conventioneers. The democratic candidate is former state senator Staci Appel, and surprisingly, she was uncontested in the democratic primary, meaning that she was able to save her powder for the general election. That is reflected in the fact that she has over $700k in the bank right now and Young is tapped out from the primary/convention with under $100k. That’s a huge advantage. I have to figure both of these candidates are pretty astute politicians, but because of the money advantage at the moment, I’m tilting this one in Appel’s favor.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (5th democratic pickup nationally, national swing D+2)
IA-4 – Jim Mowrer vs Steve King-inc
The 4th district stretches from Ames over toward Sioux City, and takes in most of northwest Iowa. This is the home of weapons grade wingnut Steve King. This district was one of my biggest misses in 2012, where I projected democrat Christie Vilsack to beat King, and she ended up losing by 8%, about the same margin that Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by. Still, I feel that there is good reason for republicans to be concerned here. There was a poll by PPP from last year showing Generic D beating King by 4%, which was a little surprising. Democrats then went out and got a solid candidate in Iraq war veteran Jim Mowrer. Mowrer has been a fundraising star thus far, holding $717k in the bank, which beats King’s total of $443k. You never want to trailing in fundraising as an incumbent, especially when your mouth tends to make a lot of headlines. I’m feeling a little gun shy here because of my miss last cycle, but King is definitely vulnerable here.
Rating – Lean R
MO-1 – Lacy Clay-inc vs Daniel Elder
We move now into Missouri, and the first district is centered in Saint Louis. At 80% Obama, this seat is the most democratic in Missouri, and it’s a safe haven for democratic incumbent Lacy Clay.
Rating – Safe D
MO-2 – Arthur Lieber vs Ann Wagner-inc
This seat sits west of Saint Louis and takes in some suburban and exurban territory. It’s actually the third most democratic district in the state, but at R+10 PVI, it’s not exactly fertile territory. Democrat Arthur Lieber is basically a sacrificial lamb against republican incumbent Ann Wagner.
Rating – Safe R
MO-3 – Courtney Denton vs Blaine Luetkemeyer-inc
The third district takes in a lot of rural territory in the eastern portion of the state. It’s a very republican seat, and democrat Courtney Denton doesn’t have the resources needed to compete. It’s a wrap.
Rating – Safe R
MO-4 – Nate Irvin vs Vicki Hartzler-inc
The 4th district is another rural seat, taking in much of western and central Missouri. Vicki Hartzler knocked off longtime incumbent Ike Skelton in 2010, and pretty much has this seat on lockdown now. Democrat Nate Irvin, I wish you good luck, because you’re going to need it.
Rating – Safe R
MO-5 – Emanuel Cleaver-inc vs Jacob Turk
The 5th district takes in Kansas City and some territory to its east. The seat isn’t as democratic as the Saint Louis-based 1st, but at D+8, you won’t see many republican strategists looking for a pickup here. 2012 candidate Jacob Turk is back for another go, but his chances of winning are very, very small.
Rating – Safe D
MO-6 – Bill Hedge vs Sam Graves-inc
The 6th is a rural district in the state’s northwest. Another district that gave Obama less than 40% of the vote, it’s pretty safe republican territory. Incumbent Sam Graves should easily win another term.
Rating – Safe R
MO-7 – Jim Evans vs Billy Long-inc
The 7th district is centered on Springfield and Joplin, and is the most republican district in the state. Incumbent Billy Long will have no trouble holding onto his seat in November.
Rating – Safe R
MO-8 – Barbara Stocker vs Jason Smith-inc
Rounding out the Show Me State, which hasn’t shown me anything in terms of competitive House races, we have the southeastern rural 8th district. Incumbent Jason Smith looks to be safe against underfunded challenger Barbara Stocker.
Rating – Safe R
OK-1 – nobody vs Jim Bridenstine-inc
We move now into Oklahoma, which was the reddest state in the nation in 2008, and only got redder in the 2012 election. The first district is centered on Tulsa. Democrats elected not to contest this district, which Romney won 66-34.
Rating – Safe R
OK-2 – Earl Everett vs Markwayne Mullin-inc
The 2nd district takes in most of eastern Oklahoma. The seat was previously held by blue dog democrat Dan Boren, but it’ll be a long time before a democrat ever holds it again.
Rating – Safe R
OK-3 – Frankie Robbins vs Frank Lucas-inc
The 3rd district is one of the most republican districts in the nation. Incumbent Frank Lucas is a shoo-in this November.
Rating – Safe R
OK-4 – Bert Smith vs Tom Cole-inc
The 4th district is mostly rural, taking in the southwest part of the state. Incumbent Tom Cole is pretty powerful, but even if he wasn’t he wouldn’t have much chance of losing in this sea of red.
Rating – Safe R
OK-5 – Open seat race
The Oklahoma City-based 5th district is the only part of the state that is trending toward the democrats. Still, Romney won here by a 59-41 margin, so you can’t say it’s a realistic seat to win. The seat is open, and there were contested primaries on both sides, both of which went to runoffs. On the republican side, former state senator Steve Russell and Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner Patrice Douglas made the runoff. On the democratic side, state senator Al McAffrey and some dude Tom Guild will face off in the runoff election. Regardless of what happens there I have to believe the seat will stay red barring a scandal or something unforeseen.
Rating – Safe R
KS-1 – James Sherow vs Tim Huelskamp-inc
We move into Kansas now, starting in a district called the “Big First”. It takes in most of western and northern Kansas and is one of the most republican districts in the nation. Incumbent Tim Huelskamp has nothing to worry about here.
Rating – Safe R
KS-2 – Margie Wakefield vs Lynn Jenkins-inc
The 2nd district takes in rural territory in east Kansas, but also includes the state capital of Topeka and the college town of Lawrence. This was Nancy Boyda’s old seat before she was unseated by current incumbent Lynn Jenkins. Democrats found a pretty promising candidate here in attorney and Douglas County Dem Party chair Margie Wakefield. Wakefield has been in politics all her life, even serving as staff for former senator Bob Dole, so she’s got some political chops. She’s getting pounded in the money race though, holding just $236k to Jenkins’s almost 2 million. However, there seems to be somewhat of an anti-republican backlash brewing in Kansas this cycle with governor Sam Brownback locked in a toss up race and senator Pat Roberts not polling well of late. I wonder if this dynamic could trickle down the ballot, and if it does that could be huge for Wakefield. Still, this is an R+8 district, so even in the best of circumstances it won’t be easy to win.
Rating – Likely R
KS-3 – Kelly Kultala vs Kevin Yoder-inc
The third district takes in suburbs of Kansas City, and is the most democratic district in Kansas even though it is R+6. Kevin Yoder is the republican incumbent here, and it’s hard to tell how strong he is because democrats failed to contest the district in 2012. This time around, they have a pretty good candidate in former state senator Kelly Kultala. Her issue thus far has been fundraising, she had just 60k in the bank in April, and I can’t find July since neither Ballotpedia nor DKE has the numbers. That being said, it appears that the GOP in Kansas is having a really bad year, and it could trickle downballot. For that reason I feel we still have to keep an eye on this one.
Rating – Likely R
KS-4 – Perry Schuckman vs Mike Pompeo-inc
The Wichita-based 4th district saw a nasty republican primary between incumbent Mike Pompeo and former 4th district rep Todd Tiahrt. Pompeo was victorious there, so all that’s left between him and another term is underfunded democratic challenger Perry Schuckman.
Rating – Safe R
NE-1 – Dennis Crawford vs Jeff Fortenberry-inc
The first district in Nebraska covers most of the eastern part of the state not including Omaha. Incumbent Jeff Fortenberry is a powerful political figure, and this is very red territory. I don’t see democrat Dennis Crawford putting up much of a fight.
Rating – Safe R
NE-2 – Brad Ashford vs Lee Terry-inc
The Omaha-based 2nd district has been the site of some really close contests in recent years, the most notable of which saw Barack Obama beat John McCain here by 1% in 2008 to win an electoral vote. Incumbent Lee Terry is a very weak congresscritter, barely scraping by against challenger John Ewing in 2012 by 1.5%. The democrats continue to go after Terry hard. Their candidate is state representative/senator (lol, unicameral legislature) Brad Ashford. He’s a longtime veteran in Nebraska politics, so his profile should be a great fit for the seat. The crazy thing is that his fundraising hasn’t been all that good…he has just $186k in the bank compared to $681k for Terry. However, Terry seems to be uniquely unpopular, and polling is bearing that out, Terry is drawing mid 40s right now and is actually trailing Ashford as of the last survey. In the last 2 election cycles, most of the incumbents polling under 45% and/or losing to their challengers at or before Labor Day ended up losing in November. Therefore, I think Terry’s goose is cooked.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (6th democratic pickup nationally, national swing D+3)
NE-3 – Mark Sullivan vs Adrian Smith-inc
The 3rd district takes in the western 2/3 of the state and is a hugely republican district. Incumbent Adrian Smith is a lock for another term.
Rating – Safe R
SD-1 – Corinna Robinson vs Kristi Noem-inc
We now move into the one seat states, four in a row starting with South Dakota. Four years ago, Kristi Noem knocked off former incumbent Stephanie Herseth in what was as much a battle of physical attraction as it was political wits. Since then, Noem hasn’t been that strong, underperforming Mitt Romney by 4% last cycle. If the democrats had a solid candidate here this could be interesting. On paper, challenger Corinna Robinson is an Iraq War veteran with a long military background, which can often be a winner. The issue for Robinson is that she only had $20k in the bank in April…not sure about now since July isn’t up on Ballotpedia or DKE. That’s just not enough to run a winning campaign, so I think Noem should have it easy unless the fundamentals change somehow.
Rating – Safe R
ND-1 – George Sinner vs Kevin Cramer-inc
The lone seat in North Dakota is held by republican Kevin Cramer. Cramer knocked off Pam Gulleson in 2012, but underperformed Mitt Romney by 6% in doing so. The Dakotas have a history of electing democrats to Congress, so a good democratic candidate could thread the needle. State senator George Sinner is taking his shot this cycle, and he’s got some decent money behind him at $274k. Cramer isn’t exactly sitting on a warchest at $653k, so this could end up being competitive. Cramer is definitely favored though given the state’s PVI.
Rating – Likely R
MT-1 – John Lewis vs Ryan Zinke
We enter the Rocky Mountain region now, starting with the great state of Montana. Here the incumbent, Steve Daines, is running for the senate, so the seat is open. There were contested primaries on both sides, and the general election will be contested between former lieutenant governor candidate and US navy SEAL Ryan Zinke, and some dude John Lewis. It seems to me that Zinke has the stronger profile here, but he’s financially tapped out after the primary round. Lewis is leading him $623k to $97k at the moment. Unlike a lot of districts, we have a good amount of polling information here already, with PPP showing Zinke up by 5, Gravis showing him up 12, and Vox Populi showing him up 7. That pretty much computes to where I thought the race was, a republican district but one in which the democrat is well funded and has a shot at victory if he runs a great campaign.
Rating – Lean R
WY-1 – Richard Grayson vs Cynthia Lummis-inc
Wyoming is one of the reddest states in the nation, one of the three states I consider part of the “Mormon Belt” along with Utah and Idaho. Cynthia Lummis will easily win another term.
Rating – Safe R
CO-1 – Diana Degette-inc vs Martin Walsh
Heading into Colorado now, we start in the Denver-based 1st district. Incumbent Diana Degette won’t have any trouble holding down this blue urban fortress.
Rating – Safe D
CO-2 – Jared Polis-inc vs Mark Leing
The Boulder-based 2nd district isn’t as solidly democratic as the 1st, but it is very blue at D+7. Jared Polis is one of a few openly gay members of Congress, which actually isn’t a bad fit for a liberal district like this. Republican George Leing will try his best to knock him off, but he’s got a mountain to climb.
Rating – Safe D
CO-3 – Abel Tapia vs Scott Tipton-inc
The 3rd district takes in most of western Colorado. This district was held by Blue Dog John Salazar prior to 2010, when current incumbent Scott Tipton won the seat. A pink district in terms of PVI, it’s winnable for democrats in a wave or with a great candidate, but I’m not convinced that Abel Tapia is that man for Team Blue. He’s got under 100k in the bank right now, so I’m not sure he’ll be able to put up a great fight here, and Tipton’s more of an establishment republican. He won’t likely hang himself.
Rating – Safe R
CO-4 – Vic Meyers vs Ken Buck
The 4th district takes in most of rural eastern Colorado. 2010 senate candidate Ken Buck, who narrowly lost to democrat Michael Bennet that year, is the republican candidate here. This is a very republican district, so I don’t think democrat Vic Meyers has much of a chance.
Rating – Safe R
CO-5 – Irv Halter vs Doug Lamborn-inc
The Colorado Springs-based 5th district is a very republican seat. Doug Lamborn wasn’t even facing a democratic candidate in 2012, but this is a different year, and this race is somewhat intriguing. The democrats have a very solid candidate in Air Force major general Irv Halter. In addition to his military pedigree, Halter is a solid fundraiser, having 319k in the bank as of Q2. Lamborn has just 115k, which is bizarre for an incumbent. I think the district is ultimately too red for Halter to win, but if Lamborn is thinking he doesn’t need to campaign, we need to keep an eye on this one.
Rating – Likely R
CO-6 – Andrew Romanoff vs Mike Coffman-inc
This might be the marquee house race of the whole country this year. Former Colorado House Speaker and 2010 senate candidate Andrew Romanoff is in the race for the democrats. Romanoff has put up over 2 million in fundraising, easily the strongest among any democratic challenger this year other than maybe Sean Eldridge. Incumbent Mike Coffman held on barely in 2012 despite Barack Obama winning the district by 5%, so he does have some decent political skill despite having a tendency to say things he shouldn’t. He’s got over 2 million in the bank as well, so this is going to be a battle involving dumpsters upon dumpsters of dollars. In the end, I’m going with Romanoff to pick it up for the democrats. He’s more likely to stay on an even keel and not say anything dumb during the campaign.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (7th democratic pickup nationally, national swing D+4)
CO-7 – Ed Perlmutter-inc vs Don Ytterburg
The 7th district is a mostly suburban district in central Colorado. It used to be a swing district but has become democratic in recent years. Ed Perlmutter is a pretty strong incumbent, surviving even the 2010 republican wave. Republican Don Yetterburg is trying to knock out Perlmutter this year, but he’s got an uphill climb to deal with. He does have 102k in the bank to Perlmutter’s 843k, and the district isn’t solid blue in terms of PVI, so I could see this possibly becoming competitive in a wave situation, but it’s looking good for Team Blue right now.
Rating – Likely D
NM-1 – Michelle Grisham vs Mike Frese
This district covers most of central New Mexico. Incumbent Michelle Grisham won this open seat in 2012 and did so resoundingly. I don’t expect anything different this time as she is up against underfunded republican Mike Frese.
Rating – Safe D
NM-2 – Roxanne Lara vs Steve Pearce-inc
This pinkish district in southern New Mexico went democratic in the 2008 wave, but has been reliably republican outside of that aberration. Representative Steve Pearce has been pretty strong in terms of his ability to get re-elected here. That being said, he didn’t face much of a challenge in 2012, and this time he’s got a potential fight on his hands. Former Eddy County Commissioner Roxanne Lara is running for the democrats. She has a strong profile and has been fundraising like a maven, holding 712k on hand as of June. Pearce holds a very strong 1.46 million, but Lara’s amount is definitely competitive and will put this seat on the map, especially if Pearce falters or if Lara runs a great campaign.
Rating – Lean R
NM-3 – Ben Lujan-inc vs Jefferson Byrd
The northern 3rd district is the most democratic district in New Mexico. Republican Jefferson Byrd doesn’t have the resources to defeat incumbent Ben Lujan or even make this competitive.
Rating – Safe D
UT-1 – Donna McAleer vs Rob Bishop-inc
We head into Utah now, and we come into one of the most republican districts in the nation here. Incumbent Rob Bishop is safe.
Rating – Safe R
UT-2 – Luz Robles vs Chris Stewart
There was some intrigue on the republican side here as the nomination had to be decided via convention. It was ultimately won by Chris Stewart, which in a massively red district like this is tantamount to election.
Rating – Safe R
UT-3 – Brian Wannacott vs Jason Chaffetz-inc
The amazing part about these first three Utah districts is that there are actual democrats running in all three of them. You’d figure they’d be unopposed given how incredibly red they are PVI-wise.
Rating – Safe R
UT-4 – Doug Owens vs Mia Love
The 4th district is the most democratic district in Utah. This is the seat held by Jim Matheson, but he decided to hang it up this year, creating an open seat. His 2012 republican opponent, Mia Love, is running again for the GOP. This was considered by some to be a slam dunk pickup for the GOP, but amazingly, democrat Doug Owens is polling somewhat competitive with Love. In terms of fundraising Owens had just 210k to Love’s 873k as of June. I guess some folks in the 4th are turned off by Love for some reason. In either case, we have to keep an eye on this one even though right now I project Love to pick it up for the GOP.
Rating – Likely R (4th republican pickup nationally, national swing D+3)
ID-1 – Shirley Ringo vs Raul Labrador-inc
We head into Idaho now, and the first district covers the western half of the state. Democrats do have a genuine candidate here in state representative Shirley Ringo, and let’s not forget that democrat Walt Minnick did win this seat in 2008. That all being said, I don’t see a repeat of that happening this year.
Rating – Safe R
ID-2 – Richard Stallings vs Michael Simpson-inc
The 2nd district covers the eastern half of Idaho. It’s another solidly red district, and Mike Simpson won’t have any trouble against Some Dude Richard Stallings.
Rating – Safe R
NV-1 – Dina Titus-inc vs Annette Teijiero
We move now into Nevada, and we start in Las Vegas. This is the bluest seat in Nevada, and it’s one that Dina Titus won’t have any trouble hanging onto.
Rating – Safe D
NV-2 – Kristen Spees vs Mark Amodei-inc
The 2nd district covers most of northern Nevada. The democrats have started to make a dent into this formerly bright red district, mostly due to gains in Washoe County. However, the district still has a republican PVI and it is also ancestrally republican too. Mark Amodei shouldn’t have that much trouble against democrat Kristen Spees, who is unknown and underfunded.
Rating – Safe R
NV-3 – Erin Bilbray vs Joe Heck-inc
This district in Las Vegas’s southern suburbs is a true swing district, one that Obama won by 1% in 2012 over Mitt Romney. Joe Heck has been a surprisingly powerful incumbent since his initial election in 2010, and he’s got a powerful warchest of nearly 1.5 million. However, democrats are not letting him slide easily. Democrat Erin Bilbray is going after him this cycle, and she’s fundraised very well, holding about 500k as of June. Republicans have tried to claim that Bilbray is a carpetbagger, but those charges don’t seem to be going much of anywhere. I get the feeling that Heck will be difficult to beat, but the district is gettable for Team Blue and Bilbray is capable.
Rating – Lean R
NV-4 – Steven Horsford-inc vs Cresent Hardy
The 4th district is one that takes in much of Las Vegas’s northern suburbs as well as some rural territory. Democrat Steven Horsford is the incumbent here. On paper the republicans got a good candidate in state representative Cresent Hardy. The issue for him has been fundraising, as he has just 33k in the bank as of June. That’s not enough to run a credible campaign. The district is a little bit swingy, but at 54% Obama, a republican would have to run very strongly or hope for a massive wave to win. I’m not seeing either of those taking place at the moment.
Rating – Likely D
AZ-1 – Ann Kirkpatrick-inc vs Andy Tobin
We head into the last state in the Rocky Mountain region now, the great state of Arizona. The first district covers most of the north and northeast parts of the state. Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick is on her 2nd run in Congress, having held this seat before 2010, getting washed out in the wave, but then coming back and winning in 2012. She is a pretty astute politician with connections to the district’s large Navajo population and she has a large warchest at 1.3 million as of June. The republican primary was a closely contested affair, won by state representative Andy Tobin. Tobin has a solid profile, and though financially he’s tapped out after the primary, I’m sure that he’ll be able to fundraise well down the stretch and run a credible campaign. In the end I feel that Kirkpatrick is a strong enough incumbent to hold this seat unless there is a wave, but we’ll see. This definitely is one to watch.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D
AZ-2 – Ron Barber-inc vs Martha McSally
The southeastern Arizona 2nd district is one of those seats that ended up surprisingly competitive on election night in 2012. Democrat Ron Barber was expected to coast, but he ended up winning by less than 1% against republican Martha McSally. Given that result and the fact that Romney beat Obama here by a slim margin, McSally decided to re-roll the dice this cycle. She’s got a huge warchest for a challenger at 1.12 and huge name recognition for a non-incumbent. Barber to his credit, has been gearing up for a rough fight this cycle and has over 1.5 million in the bank, so he’s not going to be caught napping like he nearly was last cycle. That being said, compared with his colleague Ann Kirkpatrick, I feel like Barber is a less astute and less tactically sound politician. I think she holds on but he doesn’t.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R (5th republican pickup nationally, national swing D+2)
AZ-3 – Raul Grijalva-inc vs Gabriela Mercer
The southwestern Arizona 3rd district is a blue district that gave Obama 61% of the vote in 2012. Raul Grijalva shouldn’t have any trouble holding onto his seat.
Rating – Safe D
AZ-4 – Mikel Weisser vs Paul Gosar-inc
The 4th district is a very republican seat, the most republican seat in Arizona as a matter of fact. Incumbent Paul Gosar won’t have any difficulty retaining his seat.
Rating – Safe R
AZ-5 – James Woods vs Matt Salmon-inc
The 5th district is another hugely republican bastion that takes in a bunch of suburbs and exurbs of Phoenix. Republican Matt Salmon should have an easy time against underfunded democrat James Woods.
Rating – Safe R
AZ-6 – John Williamson vs David Schweikert-inc
The 6th district is another exurban-type district surrounding Phoenix. It’s not quite as red as the 4th or the 5th, but it’s still hugely republican territory. David Schweikert shouldn’t have much trouble.
Rating – Safe R
AZ-7 – Ruben Gallego vs nobody
The Phoenix-based 7th district went uncontested by the republicans. Perhaps with this to blame, this was the site of one of the ugliest democratic primaries in recent memory, with former state Ruben Gallego and Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox absolutely tearing each other limb from limb. In a more competitive district, such a primary might cost Team Blue a seat, but here it won’t alter the arithmetic any.
Rating – Safe D
AZ-8 – nobody vs Trent Franks
Democrats did not contest this district, so incumbent Trent Franks is going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R
AZ-9 – Kyrsten Sinema-inc vs Wendy Rogers
I think back to election night 2012, and if somebody had asked me if an atheist lesbian would win a swing seat in Arizona, I would’ve been very skeptical. But the strange recipe of redistricting coupled with a recruiting fail by the GOP led to Kyrsten Sinema doing just that. Obama carried this seat by 4.5%, making it basically even in PVI. Needless to say given that, and given that Sinema is basically the kind of person that the GOP loves to hate, the republicans want this seat bad. Businesswoman Wendy Rogers took out former NFL quarterback Andrew Walter in the primary, and now has her sights set on Sinema. Rogers had $387k in the bank as of June but is likely tapped out after the primary, while Sinema has 1.6 million in the bank. I feel that fundraising won’t be as important here as most districts because you’re likely to see this district blanketed in outside spending, particularly from anti-LGBT and pro-LGBT organizations. This is a really difficult one to call. Right now I’m going to give Sinema the benefit of the doubt and say she holds the seat.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D
Bottom Line - The Central Plains and Rocky Mountains actually have quite a few interesting races, probably more than any other part of the country I've reviewed thus far. Unlike the other regions, I think there is good potential for both sides to gain seats here, and I do think you will see quite a few seats change hands on election night. As of now, I have IA-3, NE-2, and CO-6 changing from red to blue, and UT-4 and AZ-2 going from blue to red. The result is that the democrats gain a net of 1 seat in the Central Plains/Rocky Mountains mashup, and are now at a net of +2 seats nationally. There's just one region left to review now, and that's the Pacific Coast. That diary should come out sometime within the next week, so if you've been waiting on Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, or Hawaii, you don't have to wait much longer. At the end of that diary the whole map will be revealed along with the ever popular House Equal Area Projection.