Hi DKE nation. Today we get to look over another big batch of House races. Fun. This 4th diary in my House Baseline rankings covers a region stretching from West Virginia to Texas. I call it the Interior Southeast, or any state that can be considered southern that doesn't touch the Atlantic Ocean. Think of it as Appalachia + Gulf Coast.
This is a pretty toxic region for democrats overall, consisting of the states of West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. If you notice, Barack Obama did not win any of these states, and he got blown out in all of them. Naturally, one would expect that republicans would have this region on virtual lockdown, and they do, with 56 seats to the democrats' 19. Can the democrats close the gap this cycle? Let's take a look.
Before we start this diary on the Interior Southeast, I have some ratings changes within the Northeast and Coastal Southeast regions. These were regions I looked at several months back, and the lay of the land has changed a bit since then.
NY-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D
NJ-2 – Lean R to Likely R
PA-7 – Likely R to Safe R
VA-2 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R
NC-3 – Likely R to Safe R
SC-7 – Lean R to Safe R
FL-10 – Likely R to Safe R
WV-1 – Glen Gainer vs David McKinley-inc
The first district contains most of northern West Virginia. Incumbent David McKinley cruised to re-election in 2012 by 25%. On paper, the democrats got a very solid challenger in state auditor Glen Gainer. The issue for Gainer is that he has been poor on the fundraising front, holding just $188k in the bank to McKinley’s 1.47 million. That coupled with the fact that like the state as a whole, WV-1 is trending rightward at a very fast pace, tells me that this race won’t be all that close.
Rating – Safe R
WV-2 – Open seat race
The second district snakes across the center of the state, and is nationally speaking the most democratic district in the state as Barack Obama only lost to Mitt Romney by 22%. You have an interesting dichotomy of a district getting redder seemingly by the minute going up against parochialism. That second aspect is in play because of the fact that republican candidate Alex Mooney is from Maryland and has carpetbagged across state lines. That can’t play well in WV. Democratic candidate Nick Casey is the former WV Democratic Party chair, and is a strong candidate. He’s also beating Mooney in the fundraising race $872k to $353k. There are a lot of signs pointing in team Blue’s favor here, but ultimately I just think the district is too red, and that not enough WV voters will be turned off by Mooney’s carpetbagging to avoid voting republican. I could be wrong though.
Rating – Lean R
WV-3 – Nick Rahall-inc vs Evan Jenkins
With Jim Matheson retiring this cycle, Nick Rahall stands tall as the democrat running for re-election in the reddest district held by a democrat in the nation. Rahall wasn’t heavily targeted in 2012, but was only able to win by a weak 8%. This time around, he has to deal with republican state senator Evan Jenkins, a man who appears to have a very solid profile but with one potential major flaw. That flaw is that he was a democrat until last year when he flipped parties in order to run here. It remains to be seen whether turnout among R’s will stay strong. He’s done well in fundraising, garnering $689k in the bank compared to Rahall’s 1.12 million. This district voted for Mitt Romney by almost 35% in 2012, so it’s little secret what this district’s congressional future is. Will it flip this year? Hard to say right now, but if I had to guess, I think a paper bag with an R by its name could beat Rahall in this district.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R (3rd republican pickup nationally, regional swing R+1, national swing Even)
KY-1 – Charles Hatchett vs Ed Whitfield-inc
We move into the Bluegrass State now, and we start in western Kentucky. The first district, like much of the state, is very republican at the national level. Ed Whitfield should be fine against underfunded democrat Charles Hatchett.
Rating – Safe R
KY-2 – Ron Leach vs Brett Guthrie-inc
The 2nd district takes in much of western and central Kentucky. It’s hard to believe that as recently as 2008 this seat was competitive. This cycle, Brett Guthrie will have it easy against democrat Ron Leach.
Rating – Safe R
KY-3 – John Yarmuth-inc vs Michael McFarlane
The Louisville-based 3rd district was Republican held as recently as 2006, which is actually quite surprising when you think about it. At D+5, it’s not as massively blue as many other urban districts, but democrat John Yarmuth has had a strong hold on it since his initial election. Republican Michael McFarlane will take his best shot, but he’s underfunded and on territory that is only getting bluer.
Rating – Safe D
KY-4 – Peter Newberry vs Thomas Massie-inc
The Northern Kentucky 4th district is a mashup of cherry red Cincinnati suburbs and blood red rural areas. Thomas Massie won’t have any trouble holding on here.
Rating – Safe R
KY-5 – Kenneth Stepp vs Hal Rogers-inc
It wasn’t all that long ago that Daniel Mongiardo represented this area in eastern Kentucky, but it’s gone so far rightward since then that I’m not even sure Dr. Dan would recognize the place nowadays. Kenneth Stepp got 22% against Hal Rogers in 2012, somehow I don’t think he’ll even get that this time.
Rating – Safe R
KY-6 – Elizabeth Jensen vs Andy Barr-inc
One of the relative shocks of election night 2012 was the fact that Andy Barr, who lost to incumbent Ben Chandler by 650 votes in 2010, was able to win the 2012 rematch. Now the incumbent, Barr was probably thinking he could sit pretty in this R+8 district. The democrats didn’t see it that way, and came up with a decent candidate in nonprofit director Elizabeth Jensen. Jensen hasn’t been tearing it up in terms of fundraising, but does have $234k in the bank and has already used a bunch of her cash going after Barr and other republicans for trying to undermine Kentucky Kinect, the successful state health care exchange. Ultimately I’m not certain that Jensen will have the resources to compete on this relatively red territory, but she has the look and feel of a solid candidate, so I’ll continue to watch.
Rating – Likely R
TN-1 – nobody vs Phil Roe-inc
No democrat decided to run in the massively red 1st district in east Tennessee, so Phil Roe is safe.
Rating – Safe R
TN-2 – Bob Scott vs John Duncan-inc
East Tennessee has been republican since the Civil War, but you’d think the Knoxville-based 2nd district wouldn’t be so blood red. Even now I think that someday it’ll have to start turning blue like a lot of urban-based districts, but it appears that day is a long time coming.
Rating – Safe R
TN-3 – Mary Headrick vs Charles Fleischmann-inc
The 3rd district is the site of a major primary battle, pitting incumbent Charles Fleischmann against Weston Wamp, the son of former 3rd district rep Zach Wamp. 2012 democratic candidate Mary Headrick is waiting on the winner, but ultimately this territory is too red for any democrat to win.
Rating – Safe R
TN-4 – Lenda Sherell vs ???
The 4th district is also the site of a contested primary. Incumbent Scott Desjarlais is one of the most hated incumbents in the House because of a scandal involving him prescribing drugs and having sexual relationships with patients during his time in medicine prior to being elected. This is a real clown car primary, with no less than 7 republicans aiming to beat Desjarlais, the most well known of whom is state senator Jim Tracy. The democratic candidate is Lenda Sherell, who doesn’t appear to have much background in politics but did have over 100k in the bank as of April…DKE isn’t tracking this race so I don’t have the July number. I have to believe that if Desjarlais gets through the primary, he’s going to be wounded, and the money from national democrats will start to flow into the district once again. That being said, picking up this district will be very tough.
Rating – Likely R
TN-5 – Jim Cooper-inc vs ???
I feel that democrats should be thankful that republicans decided not to chop this district up into pieces. As it stands, this Nashville-based district is about D+5, and is a pretty easy hold for incumbent Jim Cooper. Four republicans are running in the primary for a shot at him, but none of them have the resources or profile to make it a race.
Rating – Safe D
TN-6 – Amos Powers vs Diane Black-inc
This is a haven of republican strength in central Tennessee. Incumbent Diane Black should make quick work of underfunded democrat Amos Powers.
Rating – Safe R
TN-7 - ??? vs Marsha Blackburn-inc
Marsha Blackburn is one of the more powerful incumbents in the House, and she sits in a republican stronghold in west-central Tennessee. Two democrats are running for the right to get plastered by her in November.
Rating – Safe R
TN-8 - ??? vs Stephen Fincher-inc
It’s really hard to believe that democrats held this seat as recently as 2009…this district gave nearly 2/3 of its vote to Mitt Romney over Barack Obama. There are contested primaries on both sides here, but I can’t see incumbent Stephen Fincher being troubled here.
Rating – Safe R
TN-9 – Steve Cohen-inc vs Charlotte Bergman
One representative that always seems to draw contested primaries is Steve Cohen, who represents the Memphis-based 9th district. Most of the folks challenging him seem to do so because he is white, representing a black-majority district. It’s interesting to watch, but ultimately does nothing as far as control of the seat goes. No republican will likely ever win here, not for a long, long time.
Rating – Safe D
AL-1 – Burton LaFlore vs Bradley Byrne-inc
We move now into Alabama, and the 1st district takes in most of southwest AL. At just 37% Obama, it is actually the 2nd most democratic district in the state by PVI. Yeah. That being said, it’s very red, and incumbent Bradley Byrne will be easily re-elected.
Rating –Safe R
AL-2 – Erick Wright vs Martha Roby-inc
The southeastern AL 2nd district, believe it or not, had a democratic representative as recently as 2010, and might still today were it not for that massive red wave. As it stands now though, incumbent Martha Roby doesn’t have much to worry about. Democrat Erick Wright will give it his best, but he’s no Bobby Bright, that’s for sure.
Rating – Safe R
AL-3 – Jesse Smith vs Mike Rogers-inc
The 3rd district takes in much of eastern Alabama. Mike Rogers should hold this red district pretty easily, and when he does he’ll actually be the most senior member of Congress with that name, since the Mike Rogers of MI-8 is retiring.
Rating – Safe R
AL-4 – nobody vs Robert Aderholt-inc
In one of the most republican districts in the nation, no democrat stepped forward to take on incumbent Robert Aderholt. He’s going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R
AL-5 – nobody vs Mo Brooks-inc
In the Huntsville-based 5th district, incumbent Mo Brooks has only minor party opposition. He’s going back to Congress as well.
Rating – Safe R
AL-6 – Avery Vise vs Gary Palmer
The 6th district is one of the most republican districts in the nation. Naturally, when Spencer Bauchus retired, many republicans jumped at the chance to take the open seat. The primary runoff was won by Gary Palmer, who knocked off state representative Paul Demarco to reach the general, where democrat Avery Vise bravely decided to jump in. Even I wouldn’t want his gig.
Rating – Safe R
AL-7 – Terri Sewell-inc vs nobody
The lone democratic district in the state, the 7th takes in most of Birmingham and Tuscaloosa as well as a lot of the “black belt”. No republican stepped forward to face incumbent Terri Sewell, so she’s good.
Rating – Safe D
MS-1 – Ron Dickey vs Alan Nunnelee-inc
The first district takes in much of northern Mississippi. Alan Nunnelee is the republican incumbent, and in this red bastion he shouldn’t have too much trouble. Democrat Ron Dickey has a very large uphill to summit here.
Rating – Safe R
MS-2 – Bennie Thompson-inc vs nobody
Incumbent Bennie Thompson has only minor party opposition to deal with, as no republican went after his seat. He’s heading back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
MS-3 – Doug Magee vs Greg Harper-inc
The third district takes in much of the central part of the state. Greg Harper faces an underfunded democratic challenger in this ruby red district, so he should be fine.
Rating – Safe R
MS-4 – Matt Moore vs Steven Palazzo-inc
The final seat east of the Mississippi River, the 4th is the most republican seat in the state. Steven Palazzo actually had to fight off a brisk primary challenge from former representative Gene Taylor, but now that he has done so he will cruise to re-election.
Rating – Safe R
AR-1 – Jackie McPherson vs Rick Crawford-inc
The first district, like much of Arkansas, used to be a democratic district, but it has moved at seeming light speed to the right, and gave Barack Obama just 36% of the vote in 2012. That being said, this is an area where local dems can and often do outperform national dems. Team Blue got a pretty decent candidate here in Heber Springs mayor Jackie McPherson. She brings bonafide political skill to the contest, even though her fundraising hasn’t been great...she has just $107k in the bank. Surprisingly, incumbent Rick Crawford only holds $429k at the moment, which is pretty bad for a sitting US rep. Without Barack Obama on the ticket, I feel that McPherson might give Crawford a hard time if she runs a solid campaign, but winning would be very, very difficult under even the best of circumstances.
Rating – Likely R
AR-2 – Pat Hays vs French Hill-inc
The Little Rock-based 2nd is in terms of PVI the most democratic district in Arkansas. This cycle, it looks like we have a real battle on our hands too. The democrats landed a great candidate in Patrick Hays, a man who was formerly mayor of North Little Rock and a former state representative. Incumbent French Hill was occupied by a contested primary, and as a result is actually trailing his challenger in cash on hand, $621k to $429k. That’s a scary place for any incumbent to be in. Hill can at least bank on the fact that the district is about R+8 in PVI, but partisan value index might be misleading in a state that is ancestrally democratic and doesn’t have its boogeyman on the ticket this year. Call me crazy, but I think both Mark Pryor and Mike Ross will carry this district upballot in November, and I think that gives Hays that last little boost he needs to pick it up for the democrats.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (4th democratic pickup nationally, region swing Even, national swing D+1)
AR-3 – nobody vs Steve Womack-inc
The 3rd district is massively republican, so it’s not too surprising that nobody stepped forward to face incumbent republican Steve Womack. He’s good for another term.
Rating – Safe R
AR-4 – James Lee Witt vs Bruce Westerman
The 4th district was democratic until Mike Ross decided to cowardly abandon ship right after the legislature had drawn the seat specifically for him. Republican incumbent Tom Cotton is running for governor, so the seat is open. In terms of political background this contest has lots of it. The republicans got themselves a very solid candidate in state house majority leader Bruce Westerman. The democrats landed former FEMA director James Lee Witt. The surprising part about this is that there isn’t a ton of money on either side…Witt leads Westerman in the fundraising race by $396k to $179k. Recent polling is showing Westerman ahead by quite a bit, possibly due to name recognition advantage. Without much local knowledge of the rural south, I’ll go by polling for now but this is still one to watch.
Rating – Likely R
LA-1 – nobody vs Steve Scalise-inc
We head into Louisiana now, and this could be the most boring state in the nation for House races. We start in the 1st, which sits north of Lake Ponchartrain for the most part. It’s a super-duper red seat, and no democrat stepped forth to challenge incumbent Steve Scalise. He’s going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R
LA-2 – Cedric Richmond-inc vs nobody
The New Orleans-based 2nd district is represented by democrat Cedric Richmond. No republican felt like challenging him, so he’s safe.
Rating – Safe D
LA-3 – nobody vs Charles Boustany-inc
No democrat stepped up to face Charles Boustany, so he’s got another term for sure.
Rating – Safe R
LA-4 – nobody vs John Fleming-inc
No democrat decided it was worth it to challenge republican John Fleming. Are you seeing a trend here yet?
Rating – Safe R
LA-5 - ??? vs ???
Well, well, well, we finally have a competitive contest. This one is a bizarre one. Incumbent Vance McAllister was caught on camera first-basing it with a nice looking young lady that well, wasn’t his wife. That caused a lot of people in this stretch of rural America to flip out, and a whole bunch of republicans jumped into the jungle primary with the intention of taking him out. Of course, the sheer number of folks in the primary might turn this into a clown car scenario where McAllister makes it through. Some of the R names include former Grant County…err…Parish DA Ed Tarpley, and Zach Dasher, nephew of Duck Dynasty’s Phil Robertson. The democrats actually have a pretty good candidate in Monroe mayor Jamie Mayo. Given that there is 1 dem and 5 repubs in the primary, Mayo should advance out of the jungle primary, but for her to pull out a win in the general is a lot to ask in this R+13 district.
Rating – Safe R
LA-6 – Open seat race
This race is even more bananas than the one in the 5th. Bill Cassidy is retiring, so the seat is open. The republicans have 9 candidates in the jungle primary. Some of the key names are state senator Dan Claitor, state representative Lenar Whitney, Baton Rouge councilman Ryan Heck, and US attorney Cassie Fielder. The democrats have a pretty good get in Edwin Edwards, a former governor of Louisiana. Edwards will definitely advance to the general election, but I can’t see him winning a general election in a 32% Obama district.
Rating – Safe R
TX-1 – Shirley McKeller vs Louie Gohmert-inc
We now head into the 2nd largest state in the nation, the Lone Star State. The first district is a republican bastion, and Louie Gohmert should do very well to retain his seat against underfunded democrat Shirley McKeller.
Rating – Safe R
TX-2 – Niko Letsos vs Ted Poe-inc
The 2nd district is also very republican in nature. Incumbent Ted Poe shouldn’t have any issue with holding onto his seat.
Rating – Safe R
TX-3 – nobody vs Sam Johnson-inc
No democrat stepped forth to challenge incumbent Sam Johnson here, so he’s safe.
Rating – Safe R
TX-4 – nobody vs John Ratcliffe
This district in east Texas saw a really big surprise in the primary round, as a relative political unknown in John Ratcliffe placed 2nd in the republican primary, holding incumbent Ralph Hall under 50% and forcing a runoff, where Ratcliffe beat Hall. Were this a more even district, democrats would have a chance to pick it up, but given that this is one of the most republican seats in the nation…not gonna happen. There’s also the matter of the democrats not fielding a candidate, so…
Rating – Safe R
TX-5 – nobody vs Jeb Hensarling-inc
This district is also unopposed by the democrats. Incumbent Jeb Hensarling is a lock to return.
Rating – Safe R
TX-6 – David Cozad vs Joe Barton-inc
The 6th district is one in which Obama actually cracked 40%, which is better than a lot of districts outside of urban areas in Texas. That being said, democrat David Cozad doesn’t have the profile or the resources to make this competitive.
Rating – Safe R
TX-7 – James Cargas vs John Culberson-inc
The 7th district is another where the democrats are in the race, but they won’t finish first. Incumbent John Culberson should win in a walk over underfunded democrat James Cargas.
Rating – Safe R
TX-8 – nobody vs Kevin Brady-inc
Normally I get bent out of shape over democrats not contesting seats, but given that Obama got just 22% of the vote in this district, I definitely understand this one.
Rating – Safe R
TX-9 – Al Green-inc vs nobody
The 9th is the first urban district we’ve come to, as it takes in parts of Houston. Republicans are not contesting this 78% Obama district, so Al Green is going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
TX-10 – Tawana Walter vs Mike McCall-inc
The 10th district is one that used to be more swingy, but the republicans shored it up considerably during redistricting. Mike McCall shouldn’t have much trouble holding onto it this November.
Rating – Safe R
TX-11 – nobody vs Mike Conaway-inc
We head now into the Texas panhandle, which is the single most republican part of the United States. Not surprisingly, the democrats did not field a candidate against incumbent Mike Conaway, and who can blame them? Obama didn’t even get 20% here.
Rating – Safe R
TX-12 – Mark Greene vs Kay Granger-inc
If I remember my district numbers correctly, this district takes in mostly exurbs in the D/FW area. It gave Mitt Romney 67% of the vote and democrat Mark Greene has little resources, so I don’t see much trouble ahead for incumbent Kay Granger.
Rating – Safe R
TX-13 – Mike Minter vs Mac Thornberry-inc
This district in the northern Texas panhandle is the single most republican district in the nation at R+33. The biggest surprise here is that unlike a bunch of other districts, the democrats actually have a candidate here. Godspeed Mike Minter, maybe you can crack 20%, because Obama sure didn’t.
Rating – Safe R
TX-14 – Donald Brown vs Randy Weber-inc
Another district where Obama didn’t crack 40% and the democrat has no money. Yawn. This region is BORING. Next.
Rating – Safe R
TX-15 – Reuben Hinojosa-inc vs Eddie Zamora
This is the first of the so-called “fajita strips” districts in south Texas. As a Hispanic majority seat, it’s fairly democratic at D+6. Republican Eddie Zamora is running, but he doesn’t have much of any cash or political acumen. Incumbent Reuben Hinojosa should be good to go.
Rating – Safe D
TX-16 – Beto O’Rourke-inc vs nobody
The El Paso-based 16th saw one of the biggest primary surprises last cycle when Beto O’Rourke took out Silvestre Reyes. As it stands now, O’Rourke isn’t facing any republican opposition this November, so he’s headed back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
TX-17 – Nick Haynes vs Bill Flores-inc
The 17th district takes in a large chunk of central Texas. This red swath of land was actually represented for a very long time by democrat Chet Edwards. Incumbent Bill Flores should have an easy time of it this election cycle though, as democratic challenger Nick Haynes is underfunded and on very red turf.
Rating – Safe R
TX-18 – Sheila Jackson-Lee-inc vs Sean Seibert
I don’t get the district numbers in Texas honestly, they just jump around. This Houston-based district is hugely democratic, and Sheila Jackson-Lee will easily win re-election.
Rating – Safe D
TX-19 – Neal Marchbanks vs Randy Neugebauer-inc
This is another district in which Obama only took about a quarter of the 2-party vote. With that going on, there’s really no plausible scenario in which the democrat can win.
Rating – Safe R
TX-20 – Joaquin Castro-inc vs nobody
The San Antonio-based 20th district is democratic, but not as much as most urban districts. Romney only lost here by 20%, so it’s about D+8. But despite that, republicans did not even field a candidate.
Rating – Safe D
TX-21 – nobody vs Lamar Smith-inc
Another district, another seat not contested by the opposition party. What else is new?
Rating – Safe R
TX-22 – Frank Briscoe vs Pete Olsen-inc
This district is notable for a couple of reasons, one in that it was Tom Delay’s old seat, which he ended up losing via scandal to democrat Nick Lampson back in 2006. But more recently, it was the home district of crazed LaRouchie Kesha Rogers, who ran unsuccessfully here twice before trying to get the Dem nod for Senate this time around. Thank goodness for our side she lost. Oh, this year’s congressional race? Nothing interesting to see here.
Rating – Safe R
TX-23 – Pete Gallego-inc vs Will Hurd
Finally, finally, we come to a competitive district. Pete Gallego won this seat from Quico Canseco in 2012 by a 5% margin. That was a strong performance considering Barack Obama lost here by 3% against Mitt Romney. His republican opponent, Will Hurd, had to deal with Canseco in a rather brutal primary that ended up going to a runoff. Perhaps as a result of that, Hurd’s bank account is somewhat cleared out, as he has just $150k in the bank, although Gallego’s $814k isn’t the most impressive for a dem incumbent sitting in a Romney district. I get the general feeling that Gallego is a pretty astute politician, but I am worried about potential dropoff in Hispanic turnout in a midterm race. Still, given Gallego’s 2012 performance and the current money situation, I have to conclude that Gallego is favored right now
Rating – Lean D
TX-24 – Patrick McGearty vs Kenny Marchant-inc
This D/FW-based district is filled with lot of ruby red republican voters. It’s more toward the state median seeing as Romney only got 60% here, but democrat Patrick McGearty is overmatched nevertheless.
Rating – Safe R
TX-25 – Marco Montoya vs Roger Williams-inc
The 25th district used to cover most of Austin, but it was converted into a republican district in redistricting. Incumbent Roger Williams shouldn’t have too much trouble here in this R+13 seat.
Rating – Safe R
TX-26 – nobody vs Michael Burgess-inc
There’s no democrat running in the 26th district either. Obama only got 30% here so I don’t really blame Team Blue for leaving this one alone.
Rating – Safe R
TX-27 – Wesley Reed vs Blake Farenthold-inc
The 27th is a very republican district, about R+13 in PVI. It’s too bad it isn’t more even because then I would say this is a decent pickup opportunity. The republican incumbent Blake Farenthold, is a pretty weak incumbent who underperformed Mitt Romney by quite a bit in 2012. Also, he only has $419k in the bank, a weak sum for an incumbent. The democratic candidate also seems quite capable. Wesley Reed is a former Marine lieutenant, and has $114k in the bank, a surprisingly large total for a district considered safe. I really want to put this race into the competitive zone, but because of PVI, I can’t.
Rating – Safe R
TX-28 – Henry Cuellar-inc vs nobody
The 28th is another of the so-called “fajita strips” in south Texas. At just 60% Obama, you would figure the republicans would at least put up a candidate, but they failed to do so. Incredible how many uncontested districts there are in Texas this cycle.
Rating – Safe D
TX-29 – Gene Green-inc vs nobody
Another uncontested district? This is unbelievable.
Rating – Safe D
TX-30 – Eddie Bernice Johnson-inc vs nobody
This district centered on Dallas is also uncontested. There’s got to be some sort of non-aggression pact between the parties going on here, because this is ridiculous all these uncontested seats.
Rating – Safe D
TX-31 – Louie Minor vs John Carter-inc
The 31st is another district that Romney carried by roughly 20 points, which seems to be a benchmark in a lot of these Texas districts. Incumbent John Carter is pretty much a lock here against underfunded democrat Louie Minor
Rating – Safe R
TX-32 – Frank Perez vs Pete Sessions-inc
The 32nd district is one of the less red republican districts in the state, possibly because it takes in parts of Dallas County as well as Denton and Tarrant. The seat might one day become competitive, but for now, republican Pete Sessions has nothing to worry about, as democrat Frank Perez won’t beat him.
Rating – Safe R
TX-33 – Mark Veasey-inc vs nobody
This is one of the new districts from the 2012 redistricting, and it includes democratic parts of the Dallas/Ft Worth area. Republicans aren’t putting forth a candidate, so Mark Veasey is safe.
Rating – Safe D
TX-34 – Filemon Vela-inc vs Larry Smith
This is another fajita strip district in South Texas. Incumbent Filemon Vela should have an easy time here, because nothing screams “white republican guy” more than a candidate named Larry Smith…not to mention the fact that Obama got 63% here.
Rating – Safe D
TX-35 – Lloyd Doggett-inc vs Susan Vargaiz
This seat stretches from Austin to San Antonio, and is very, very democratic. Lloyd Doggett won’t have any trouble against underfunded republican Susan Vargaiz.
Rating – Safe D
TX-36 – Michael Cole vs Brian Babin
This final Texas district was Steve Stockman’s seat, which he vacated to run for the Senate unsuccessfully. In the end, we had a ridiculously huge republican primary, which led to a runoff where Brian Babin knocked off Ben Streusand. Democrat Michael Cole is in the race too, but in this district where Obama was creamed by Romney by a 3-to-1 margin, he has no chance.
Rating – Safe R
At the end of the day, we've got 2 seats changing hands in this region. I've got WV-3 going from blue to red, and AR-2 going from red to blue. That means that for the 2nd straight region, I don't see any net swing in the overall balance of power. That disappoints me really because that's boring, but I have to call it like I see it.
We have 3 regions left to go now...the Central Plains and the Rocky Mountains are up next in a combination for Diary 5, and then the Pacific Coast will close it out in Diary 6.