Hello DKE nation, and welcome to this final edition of StephenCLE’s baseline House Rankings. So far we’ve gone through the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Coastal Southeast, Great Lakes, Interior Southeast, Central Plains, and Rocky Mountains. There’s just one region left, and that’s the Pacific Coast. This region contains the states of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii. In all, we will look at 73 seats.
Before we start, let’s recap where we are at currently:
We have some ratings changes from earlier regions…mostly due to polling. Here’s what we have:
MA-6 – moves from Lean D to Likely D (unpopular/scandal-ridden incumbent loses primary)
ME-2 – moves from Lean D to Likely D (republican internal has republican down by 4)
AZ-1 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R (republican internal has republican up by 8)
NY-21 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R (republican ahead by 10)
FL-26 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R (poll showing R ahead + bad press for D)
Republican pickups so far – NY-21, NC-7, FL-26, WV-3, UT-4, AZ-1, AZ-2
Democratic pickups so far – NY-11, FL-2, NJ-3, AR-2, IA-3, NE-2, CO-6
National swing – Even
Prior to the end of our last update, the national swing was D+2…FL-26 & AZ-1 have now flipped from blue to red due to recent polling results, making the swing Even as we hit the Pacific Coast region.
AK-1 – Forrest Dunbar vs Don Young-inc
We start the Pacific Coast region up in Alaska. Don Young is the republican incumbent here, and though he’s got a bit of an ethical stench around him, he’s pretty much an institution in the great white north. Democrat Forrest Dunbar will try to beat him, but I don’t see it happening.
Rating – Safe R
WA-1 – Susan Delbene-inc vs Pedro Celis
We make our way down to Washington now, and the first district here is to the north of Seattle between the Puget Sound and the Cascades. This seat is one of the more competitive ones in the state in terms of PVI. Incumbent Susan Delbene took 54% in the 2012 election, same as Barack Obama. Republicans see this district as one of potential opportunity, but the top 2 primary here ended up being a very close outcome for the 2nd spot between 2 republicans. It appears that software engineer Pedro Celis will advance to November. At $196k in the bank to Delbene’s $843k, he doesn’t have much of a financial leg to stand on. This isn’t impossible for the GOP, but it’s very close to it.
Rating – Likely D
WA-2 – Rick Larsen-inc vs BJ Guillot
This district is more democratic than the 1st, at 59% Obama. Rick Larsen is the incumbent here, and he’s up against an underfunded Some Dude in BJ Guillot. He’s safe.
Rating – Safe D
WA-3 – Bob Dingethal vs Jaime Herrera-inc
The third district takes in most of southwestern Washington, a mashup of Portland suburbs and more rural areas inland and on the coast. Jaime Herrera, one of the few republican Hispanics out there and, dare I say, maybe most attractive republican congresscritter this side of Aaron Schock and Kristi Noem, is up for re-election two cycles after winning a tough battle against democrat Denny Heck, who now represents district 10. She wasn’t heavily targeted last cycle and won easily. Mitt Romney won here by 2%, making the district R+2 or R+3. The democrat running is Some Dude Bob Dingethal. Herrera is looking very good here.
Rating – Safe R
WA-4 – Open seat race
Doc Hasting’s retirement meant that this rural seat was open. It is the most republican seat in Washington, and 2 republicans finished in the top 2 spots in the top 2 primary, so it’s going to stay red in November regardless of whether Clint Didier or Dan Newhouse claims it.
Rating – Safe R
WA-5 – Joseph Pakootas vs Cathy McMorris Rodgers-inc
The Spokane-based 5th district is R+7, just out of range of what democrats can hope to win in a wave year. It’s not like it matters, because Cathy McMorris Rodgers is an institution here. Good luck Joseph Pakootas, you’re going to need it.
Rating – Safe R
WA-6 – Derek Kilmer-inc vs Marty McClendon
This district covers most of the Olympic Peninsula, and is D+6. Like a lot of WA districts it’s tempting for the other side to go after but not that favorable. Republican Marty McClendon will do his best, but he won’t really push incumbent Derek Kilmer.
Rating – Safe D
WA-7 – Jim McDermott-inc vs Craig Keller
This district covers most of Seattle. At nearly 80% Obama, this is safe for incumbent Jim McDermott.
Rating – Safe D
WA-8 – Jason Ritchie vs Dave Reichert-inc
This suburban district has frustrated democrats for years. Incumbent Dave Reichert has been a very powerful incumbent, surviving both democratic waves in 2006 and 2008. Obama won here by 2% over Mitt Romney, meaning that the seat is close to even in PVI. Despite that, it looks like democrats are waiting for Reichert to leave before challenging the seat…Some Dude Jason Ritchie is the candidate this cycle. Barring a scandal, he’s going to get snowed under.
Rating – Safe R
WA-9 – Adam Smith-inc vs Doug Basler
This district takes in Olympia and Tacoma along the south end of the Puget Sound. At 68% Obama, you won’t be seeing a republican winning here anytime soon.
Rating – Safe D
WA-10 – Denny Heck-inc vs Joyce McDonald
The final district in Washington is pretty much the same politically as the 6th district, roughly a 15% Obama advantage in 2012. Denny Heck is the incumbent here, and he drew what was on paper a decent challenger in former state representative Joyce McDonald. But even though McDonald took 41% in the top 2 primary, she’s raised almost no money whatsoever. For that reason, I can’t see this one being competitive.
Rating – Safe D
OR-1 – Suzanne Bonamici-inc vs Jason Yates
We head into the Beaver State now (or the Duck State, if you prefer). The first district takes in most of northwest Oregon. Democrat Suzanne Bonamici is in pretty democratic turf here, and her republican challenger is an underfunded Some Dude. She should easily win re-election.
Rating – Safe D
OR-2 – Aelea Cristofferson vs Greg Walden-inc
This seat takes in most of eastern and central Oregon, and is the most republican district in Oregon. Greg Walden is a strong incumbent too. Aelea Cristofferson might have the coolest sounding name of any democratic challenger this cycle, but she is little chance of becoming a US rep this cycle.
Rating – Safe R
OR-3 – Earl Blumenauer-inc vs James Buchal
This district is centered on Portland, and is massively democratic. Earl Blumenauer will be going back to Congress short of a massive scandal.
Rating – Safe D
OR-4 – Peter DeFazio-inc vs Art Robinson
The 4th district takes in most of southwest Oregon and is centered on Eugene. In terms of PVI, it’s only about D+2 as Obama won it by 7% over Romney. However, republicans eager for a pickup opportunity should temper the enthusiasm as incumbent Peter DeFazio is very entrenched. On paper the republicans picked up a good candidate in Oregon GOP chairman Art Robinson, but incredibly, he’s raised almost no money. Given that, there’s no way DeFazio gets beat.
Rating – Safe D
OR-5 – Kurt Schrader-inc vs Tootie Smith
Here’s a district that is virtually even in terms of PVI, as Obama won it by 3.5% in 2012, virtually identical to his national win. Here the republicans had a major recruiting fail, as their candidate, Tootie Smith, is a Some Dudette who has raised no money. Across the whole state, it’s amazing how noncompetitive republicans are in Oregon.
Rating – Safe D
CA-1 – Heidi Hall vs Doug Lamalfa-inc
The first district in California covers a lot of territory in the rural north. It’s solidly republican, so incumbent Doug Lamalfa should have no issues holding onto his seat.
Rating – Safe R
CA-2 – Jared Huffman-inc vs Dale Mensing
The second district is solidly democratic, and takes in most of California’s northwestern coast. Incumbent Jared Huffman has nothing to worry about.
Rating – Safe D
CA-3 – John Garamendi-inc vs Dan Logue
This district sits in the north central part of California, and has some rural and suburban territory. Obama won this district by 11% over Mitt Romney, making it about D+4. That’s about what republicans could reasonably contest if a wave were to develop. Republican Dan Logue is doing his best to put this one onto the board, as he has $323k in the bank, just behind Garamendi’s $342k which is a weak total for an incumbent in a non-safe district. Logue is a member of the California state Assembly, so he’s not a some dude. That all being said, Garamendi isn’t exactly chopped liver. He would have to do a very poor job campaigning to lose this one.
Rating – Likely D
CA-4 – nobody vs Tom McClintock-inc
No democrats ran for this solidly republican seat. Although incumbent Tom McClintock could possibly lose to fellow republican Art Moore in the general, that’s irrelevant as far as control goes.
Rating – Safe R
CA-5 – Mike Thompson-inc vs nobody
No republicans stepped up to run in the Napa Valley-based 5th district, so incumbent Mike Thompson is good for another term.
Rating – Safe D
CA-6 – Doris Matsui-inc vs Joseph McCray
The Sacramento-based 6th district is a relative democratic stronghold, I only say relative because there are many more solidly dem districts in the state even though this one is nearly 70% Obama. Republican Joseph McCray has no chance here.
Rating – Safe D
CA-7 – Ami Bera-inc vs Doug Ose
This district in suburban Sacramento is the first battleground district in California this cycle. It’s been a ruthless battleground the last few cycles. Democrat Ami Bera knocked off republican Dan Lungren by 3.5% in 2012, virtually mirroring the presidential vote as Barack Obama won by 4% over Mitt Romney. This district is virtually even in PVI, and that means that republicans are going to go hard to win it back. Their candidate is Doug Ose, a former 3-term congressman. This has all the makings of a tight race on the surface, but the fundraising game is a blowout. Bera is holding a warchest of nearly 2 million on hand, whereas Ose struggled to crack $200k on hand as of July. While I’m sure there will be a lot of outside spending in this contest, that financial deficit will be very hard for Ose to overcome unless there is a national tide against Democrats. Still, he’s got the profile and the district has the measurables to make Bera sweat all the way.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D
CA-8 – Bob Conaway vs Paul Cook-inc
This district takes in a lot of mountain and desert territory in the east of the state. As a fairly republican stronghold, it should easily re-elect Paul Cook over underfunded challenger Bob Conaway.
Rating – Safe R
CA-9 – Jerry McNerney-inc vs Tony Amador
This is a D+6 district sitting on the far east side of the Bay Area. Incumbent Jerry McNerney actually underperformed Obama here in 2012, winning by just 11% while Obama cruised by 16% over Mitt Romney. If republicans thought he was weak they aren’t showing it, as their candidate, former law enforcement officer Tony Amador, is only holding 13k on hand. That’s not enough to run a real campaign, especially not on democratic turf like this.
Rating – Safe D
CA-10 – Michael Eggman vs Jeff Denham-inc
This northern Central Valley district is nearly even in PVI, as Obama won here by 3.5% over Mitt Romney in 2012. Unfortunately for Democrats, incumbent republican Jeff Denham held on for a 5% win over democrat Jose Hernandez. This is one of those districts where a lot of the Dem base is Hispanic, and the worry is that off-year turnout is poor compared to presidential years. I haven’t done all the research into that line of thinking but there is probably a lot of truth to it. Regardless, democrat and farmer Michael Eggman has launched a fairly serious challenge against Denham, and he is holding over 500k in the bank as of July (though this pales to Denham’s 1.66 million warchest). With Jerry Brown set to romp in the governor’s race, that might provide a bit of an upballot boost to Eggman, but even so, he starts out at a disadvantage.
Rating – Lean R
CA-11 – Mark DeSaulnier vs Tue Phan-Quang
This Contre Costa county district was held by George Miller, who after 40 years is hanging it up this year. The democrat running is state senator Mark Desaulnier, and at D+17, he’ll have an easy general election.
Rating – Safe D
CA-12 – Nancy Pelosi-inc vs John Dennis
We head into San Francisco now, home of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Needless to say, she’ll have an easy time of it against republican John Dennis.
Rating – Safe D
CA-13 – Barbara Lee-inc vs Dakin Sundeen
Believe it or not, the Oakland-based 13th district is actually more democratic than the San Francisco-based 12th, at 87% Obama to 84%. Barbara Lee won’t have any trouble here.
Rating – Safe D
CA-14 – Jackie Speier-inc vs Robin Chew
The San Mateo-based 14th is not quite as democratic as the 12th or 13th, but at 74% Obama, no republican will be winning here for a very long time. Jackie Speier will be back in January.
Rating – Safe D
CA-15 – Eric Swalwell-inc vs Hugh Bussell
This district actually had a very interesting primary round as the state senate majority leader, Ellen Corbett, challenged incumbent Eric Swalwell in the top 2 primary. In embarrassing fashion, Corbett finished third, not even making it to November. Swalwell’s opposition in the general is a republican Some Dude named Hugh Bussell. He won’t be getting within 2500 miles of Capitol Hill this year unless he buys a plane ticket.
Rating – Safe D
CA-16 – Jim Costa-inc vs Johnny Tacherra
This district is pretty close to California as a whole, won by Obama by 21% in 2012. Jim Costa is the incumbent and he’s not what you would consider vulnerable. Republican Jonny Tacherra is a poorly funded challenger, so I don’t see him putting up much of a fight.
Rating – Safe D
CA-17 – Mike Honda-inc vs nobody
This district is solidly democratic, solid enough that two democrats, incumbent Mike Honda and Ro Khanna advanced to the general election. Regardless of who wins the seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D
CA-18 – Anna Eshoo-inc vs Richard Fox
This seat is 68% Obama, so you won’t be seeing Republicans winning here anytime soon. Incumbent Anna Eshoo has this seat as long as she wants it.
Rating – Safe D
CA-19 – Zoey Lofgren-inc vs nobody
No republican stepped up to run in this solidly blue district. Incumbent Lofgren has another democrat to face off against in November, but regardless of the outcome it will stay democratic.
Rating – Safe D
CA-20 – Sam Farr-inc vs nobody
No republican stepped up to face incumbent Sam Farr in this seat, so it will stay blue for another cycle.
Rating – Safe D
CA-21 – Amanda Renteria vs David Valadao-inc
The 21st district covers a great portion of the Central Valley. Barack Obama won this district by 11% in 2012, making it somewhere around D+3. Incumbent David Valadao therefore should be one of the most vulnerable republicans in the nation. He drew a tough challenger in democrat Amanda Renteria, who is holding around 396k in the bank as of July. However, if there’s one district that is supposedly emblematic of democratic dropoff in voter turnout between presidential years and off years, this is it. SurveyUSA must be seeing that right now, as their poll last week had Valadao up an impressive 56-37. This isn’t an impossible race by any stretch for Renteria, but clearly she’s down right now and will have to work hard to catch up.
Rating – Likely R
CA-22 – Suzanna Aguilera vs Devin Nunes-inc
This is a rare republican region of California, covering some of the lower Central Valley. At just 41% Obama, democrat Suzanna Aguilera has a lot of work to do to win here. I expect incumbent Devin Nunes to cruise.
Rating – Safe R
CA-23 – Raul Garcia vs Kevin McCarthy-inc
This lower Central Valley district is even more republican than the neighboring 22nd. Kevin McCarthy won’t have any trouble with democrat Raul Garcia.
Rating – Safe R
CA-24 – Lois Capps-inc vs Chris Mitchum
This coastal district takes in Santa Barbara and communities along the Pacific Coast northwest of the LA area. Obama only won here by 11%, so you’d think republicans would take a flyer on contesting this district. However, their candidate, Chris Mitchum, has no money and no real profile.
Rating – Safe D
CA-25 – nobody vs Tony Strickland/Stephen Knight
This district was one that Mitt Romney only won by 2% over Barack Obama, so you’d figure democrats would be able to contest it. However, democratic turnout in the primary was horrific, and two republicans made it through the top 2 primary. The seat will stay blue.
CA-26 – Julia Brownley-inc vs Jeff Gorell
This was one of the districts that was greatly changed by the citizens’ commission in the last redistricting. Julia Brownley won it in 2012 over Tony Strickland, who is now running in the nearby 25th district. This time around, Brownley has a massive warchest of 1.5 million and is geared up for a major republican challenge in this 54% Obama district. State assemblyman Jeff Gorell is the republican candidate, and he has about 306k in the bank as of July. Even though republicans did great in the top 2 primary round here, I’m not putting a lot of stock in that as democrats generally do worse in the primary round than in the general in California. Brownley definitely has the advantage here but it’s not a gimme.
Rating – Lean D
CA-27 – Judy Chu-inc vs Jack Orswell
We’re starting to move into the Los Angeles area now, which is a haven of massively blue districts. This is the first such district, held by democrat Judy Chu. She won’t have any trouble against republican Jack Orswell.
Rating – Safe D
CA-28 – Adam Schiff-inc vs nobody
Democrat Adam Schiff is only facing minor party opposition, so he’s going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
CA-29 – Tony Cardenas-inc vs William Leader
The 29th district is another democratic safe haven. Tony Cardenas is the democratic incumbent, and he’s up against a republican Some Dude in William Leader. This won’t be competitive.
Rating – Safe D
CA-30 – Brad Sherman-inc vs Mark Reed
The 30th district isn’t quite as democratic as some SoCal districts, but at 65% Obama, you won’t see republicans making a major push for this one anytime soon. Some Dude candidate Mark Reed doesn’t have the resources to trouble Brad Sherman anyway.
Rating – Safe D
CA-31 – Pete Aguilar vs Paul Chabot
This was the district where, despite it being 57% Obama, the democrats were shut completely out of the general election as 2 republicans advanced through the top 2 primary. That scenario very nearly happened again this year as democrat Pete Aguilar barely beat out republican Leslie Gooch for the second spot in the general. But now that he is there, Aguilar is definitely favored to beat republican Paul Chabot despite the latter’s strong performance in the primary round. Chabot is holding less than 30k on hand as of July while Aguilar has nearly 350k. That’s huge. You couple that with the fact that the district has a D+6 PVI, and it’s a longshot for the GOP to hold this seat. Finally, after 47 seats, we have a seat changing hands in the Pacific Coast region.
Rating – Likely D (8th Dem pickup nationally, national swing D+2)
CA-32 – Grace Napolitano-inc vs Art Alas
Here’s another district where Obama pulled in about 65% of the vote. Incumbent Grace Napolitano really shouldn’t have any trouble against her underfunded challenger.
Rating – Safe D
CA-33 – Ted Lieu vs Elan Carr
This is Henry Waxman’s district, but he’s hanging it up at the end of this cycle. The top 2 primary was a real free for all to determine who would advance to the general election. The victors there were republican Elan Carr and democrat Ted Lieu. Both candidates are holding somewhere around 250k on hand, so there’s no real cash on hand gap to talk about. The district is about 60% Obama, so it’s not exactly fertile territory for republicans. Unless if Lieu has some real skeletons in his closet or is the worst campaigner ever, he’s going to win this one.
Rating – Safe D
CA-34 – Xavier Becerra vs nobody
We head into the heart of Los Angeles now, and this Hispanic majority district is one of the most democratic districts in California as well as the nation. No republican is running so it will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D
CA-35 – Norma Torres/Christina Gagnier vs nobody
Another inner LA district, incumbent Gloria McLeod is retiring, but two democrats advanced to the general election here so regardless of the outcome in November the seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D
CA-36 – Raul Ruiz-inc vs Bryan Nestande
One of the surprise winners on election night 2012 was Raul Ruiz, who took out republican Mary Bono Mack in a close contest here in the 36th district. Barack Obama won this seat by 3%, roughly the same as his national win. Given this information, you knew the GOP was going to try hard to win this Palm Springs-based district back. State assemblyman Brian Nestande made it through the top 2 primary and is Ruiz’s opponent. He has a strong political profile, but where he is struggling is in fundraising. He has just $230k in the bank, and he’s going up against a huge 1.9 million warchest for Ruiz. Ruiz clearly has a lot of political skill given his upset win over Bono Mack last cycle, and with his vast resources, he won’t be easy to knock off.
Rating – Lean D
CA-37 – Karen Bass-inc vs Adam King
This district is among the most democratic in California. Karen Bass will be hard pressed to not get over 80% of the vote on election night.
Rating – Safe D
CA-38 – Linda Sanchez-inc vs Benjamin Campos
Here’s another district that is roughly 65% Obama. Incumbent Linda Sanchez is up against a very poor and underfunded republican challenger, so I don’t see how this will be competitive.
Rating – Safe D
CA-39 – Peter Anderson vs Ed Royce-inc
This Orange County district used to be solidly red, but Barack Obama came within 4 points of winning it in 2012. You’d think that the Democrats might try to capitalize on the bluing trend here, but their candidate is an underfunded Some Dude. Ed Royce is safe.
Rating – Safe R
CA-40 – Lucille Roybal vs nobody
This is one of the most democratic districts in the nation. Two democrats advanced to the general election, so regardless of the result the seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D
CA-41 – Mark Takano-inc vs Steve Adams
It’s almost hard to believe that republicans were targeting this district at one point in 2012. Barack Obama won here by 25%, and current incumbent Mark Takano rolled to an 18% victory. This will be an easier victory this time around as republican Steve Adams won’t put up much of a fight.
Rating – Safe D
CA-42 – Tim Sheridan-inc vs Ken Calvert-inc
This is one of the few strongly republican districts in southern California. Ken Calvert should have an easy time against democrat Tim Sheridan.
Rating – Safe R
CA-43 – Maxine Waters-inc vs John Wood
Another very strongly democratic LA-based district here. Maxine Waters is safe.
Rating – Safe D
CA-44 – Janice Hahn-inc vs nobody
No republican stepped up to run in this democratic vote sink, so Janice Hahn is going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
CA-45 – Drew Leavens vs Mimi Walters
Incumbent John Campbell is retiring this cycle, creating a rare open seat. State senator Mimi Walters was the leading vote getter in the top 2 primary. The GOP very nearly got 2 candidates into the general but the 2nd spot was taken by democrat Drew Leavens. In the end it probably won’t matter, as this district is solidly republican and Walters has real money, something that Leavens doesn’t.
Rating – Safe R
CA-46 – Loretta Sanchez-inc vs Adam Nick
This Orange County-based district contains many of the most democratic parts of the OC. Loretta Sanchez is up against an underfunded Some Dude in Adam Nick, so she’ll likely win big.
Rating – Safe D
CA-47 – Alan Lowenthal-inc vs Andy Whallon
This district is yet another 60%-ish Obama district. Incumbent Alan Lowenthal is facing yet another republican Some Dude with no money. Next.
Rating – Safe D
CA-48 – Sue Savary vs Dana Rohrabacher-inc
Dana Rohrabacher sits in a 55% Romney district, and he’s a pretty popular figure compared to most GOP incumbents. Democrat Sue Savary doesn’t have much of a chance here.
Rating – Safe R
CA-49 – Dave Peiser vs Darrell Issa-inc
Darrell Issa is a pretty polarizing figure and a subject of real hatred among most democrats. However, he sits in a rather republican district and his democratic challenger is underfunded. He’s safe.
Rating – Safe R
CA-50 – James Kimber vs Duncan Hunter-inc
This is one of the most republican districts in California at nearly 61% Romney. Duncan Hunter has nothing to worry about here.
Rating – Safe R
CA-51 – Juan Vargas-inc vs Stephen Meade
This district includes part of San Diego as well as Imperial County. As with most districts along the Mexican border, it is solidly democratic. Juan Vargas will easily win here.
Rating – Safe D
CA-52 – Scott Peters-inc vs Carl DeMaio
We come now to the final competitive district in the country. The 52nd district takes in most of San Diego’s northern suburbs. Barack Obama won this seat by 6.5% in 2012, making the seat very marginally democratic in PVI. Incumbent Scott Peters won by 2% over republican Brian Bilbray on the same night, but his close victory ensured that he was going to be heavily targeted by the GOP. Indeed, San Diego councilman and 2012 mayoral candidate Carl DeMaio decided to try his luck, and he made it through the top 2 primary to reach the general. DeMaio is fairly well liked in GOP circles, and he has raised a ton of money, holding 1.4 million on hand. That’s impressive for a challenger. Not to be outdone, Peters is holding 1.9 million on hand. The most recent poll of this race had Peters leading DeMaio by a 48-43. This race honestly makes me nervous, but based strictly on the numerical data, I keep the seat blue by the smallest of margins.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D
CA-53 – Susan Davis-inc vs Larry Wilske
The final district in California is centered on San Diego. It’s not as solidly democratic as many urban districts are, but it’s still a district that Obama won by 25%. Susan Davis won’t have any trouble.
Rating – Safe D
HI-1 – Mark Takai vs Charles Djou
We finish out our countrywide tour in the Hawaiian Islands. This 1st district takes in most of Oahu, and with Colleen Hanabusa’s running for Senate, this seat is open. The democratic primary was won by state representative Mark Takai, who took out state Senate majority leader Donna Mercado Kim. The republican primary was won by former congressman Charles Djou. Djou might have some residual name recognition here, but he only won this seat via special election because asshole Ed Case split the democratic vote with Colleen Hanabusa. He can’t win a 1 on 1 race in a seat this democratic.
Rating – Safe D
HI-2 – Tulsi Gabbard-inc vs Kawika Crowley
This final district takes in the rest of the Hawaiian Islands. Democrat Tulsi Gabbard is an Iraq war veteran and the only Hindu in the US House, not to mention one of the most attractive democratic congresscritters you’ll find. She sits in a massively blue district. She has this seat as long as she wants it.
Rating – Safe D
Final Conclusions – Well that’s it. After 50 states and 435 districts, we’ve covered every inch of America there is at the congressional level of government. The simple fact of the matter is this…unless we see a major swing in the generic congressional ballot or individual district fundamentals, this is likely to be a wash election without a lot of change in the balance of power. At the present time, I see the republicans picking up 7 seats, the democrats picking up 8, for a national swing of D+1, 233 republicans to 202 democrats. At the time I looked at all the seats, my swing was D+4. I made a significant error in judgment as to the strength of Sean Eldridge’s candidacy in NY-19, which put that seat into the red column after my third regional update. Recent polling results have caused AZ-1 to flip from blue to red, and some negative press for Joe Garcia combined with some poor polling (albeit from McLaughlin, who is generally worthless so I didn’t put much stock in it) resulted in FL-26 going from blue to red.
From here, I’ll be updating the board once a week, most likely on Monday, as the campaigns come down the stretch to Election Day.
House Ratings Map:
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House Outcome Map:
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