Welcome Ladies and Gentlemen of Daily Kos Elections! For those of you that don't know me, my name is StephenCLE, and I've been a regular contributor on Swing State Project for the better part of 2 years now. Now that SSP has merged with DKE, I'll be posting my various dairies here.
This particular series focuses on a redrawing of the United States based on communities of interest, and is referred to as the "38 states of America". What I've done is compile the results of the 2008 presidential election for each re-drawn state in the union. From this, I can draw certain conclusions about how each state would lean politically and what it would mean for the upcoming presidential election in 2012.
In the first two parts of this diary series, I outlined the Northeast and Midwest Regions of the USA. In part 3 I will look at the Southeast Region. Before we begin, here is the "Cook/Rothenberg/Sabato/etc" rating for each state I've done so far:
Northeast Region:
Kennebec - Solid Dem
Plymouth - Solid Dem
Mohawk - Toss Up
Hudson - Solid Dem
Susquehanna - Solid Dem
Chesapeake - Likely Dem
Allegheny - Lean Dem
Appalachia - Solid Rep
Midwest Region:
Erie - Solid Rep
Mackinac - Solid Dem
Wabash - Likely Rep
Dearborn - Solid Dem
Osage - Toss Up
Prairie - Likely Dem
Superior - Lean Dem
Dakota - Likely Rep
Platte - Solid Rep
SOUTHEAST REGION:
Albemarle – (South & East VA, East NC) – Total vote – 3,561,658
Obama – 1,871,608 (52.5%)
McCain – 1,690,050 (47.5%)
PVI – R+1
Rating – Toss Up
We start off the southeast region with what would be a quintessential swing state. Albemarle state, a state that takes in much of southern Virginia and eastern and central North Carolina, is a real pressure cooker. The democratic base in Albemarle, unlike many other states, is rural as well as urban, with a large swath of northeastern North Carolina going blue every election. The focal point though is on the Research Triangle, an area including Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill. Much of southeastern Virginia is also in the democratic zone, including Newport News and Norfolk. The republican voting base in Albemarle is mostly rural, very red counties in south central Virginia, and in central and southeastern North Carolina outside of mid-size cities like Winston-Salem and Fayetteville. By the numbers, Obama carried 52.5% of the vote, just behind his national mark. Without a doubt, this state would be a major focal point in presidential elections, with many visits and campaign ads saturating the region. I start it out as a Toss Up, joining Mohawk and Osage in the Toss Up column.
Carolina – (West NC, SC, SE GA) – Total vote – 3,166,897
Obama – 1,484,141 (46.9%)
McCain – 1,682,756 (53.1%)
PVI – R+6
Rating – Likely Republican
Carolina state is a bit oddly shaped, I’m not really sure why it was drawn the way it was. It extends from the mountain areas of North and South Carolina through much of the Palmetto state before ending on the coastline of Georgia. At any rate, this state is right on the fringe of what I would consider competitive, at R+6. Obama finished with 47%, and considering that this district has Savannah, Charleston, Columbia, and Charlotte in it, I thought he would do better. The problem is that, not only are the rural areas of the state incredibly republican, but so are the suburbs of Charlotte and Columbia. That rural/suburban coalition is strong enough to keep this state republican for now, though with South Carolina’s GOP imploding recently, maybe things are moving leftward.
Cumberland – (South KY, TN, south Appalachia) – Total vote – 2,249,679
Obama – 841,307 (37.4%)
McCain – 1,408,372 (62.6%)
PVI – R+17
Rating – Solid Republican
Well, well, well, this one’s a doozy. Where to begin. Yeah, Cumberland state encompasses what I call greater Tennessee. Pretty much the whole stinking state is full of rural, republican, red sea, with hardly any islands of blue out there in the mess. Nashville is one of them, but honestly, this state wouldn’t go blue unless the democratic candidate was getting over 65% of the vote. Ouch.
Piedmont – (Greater Georgia) – Total vote – 3,528,145
Obama – 1,695,224 (48.1%)
McCain – 1,832,921 (51.9%)
PVI – R+5
Rating – Likely Republican
Now here’s a state that I really had my hopes up for, that we might see a Florida 2000 or Wisconsin 2004 razor sharp close vote. It didn’t really materialize, but this state was certainly very competitive in 2008. Piedmont, a state that centers on northern and central Georgia, is quintessentially southern in its voting habits. And by that I mean, the whites and rural folk vote republican, the blacks and city folk vote democratic. Period. On all sides of Atlanta, you’ve got 75-80% republican counties, and in central Atlanta, you’ve got 80%+ democratic counties. There are a few other valves of Dem votes in the southern part of the state in Macon and Columbus, but it’s still not quite enough to overcome the massive red sea separating the cities. This state would range from competitive in Dem years to solidly red in very republican years most likely, although I do suppose local Dems might do slightly better at holding down the margins in the rural areas than national party candidates.
Biscayne – (South GA & FL Peninsula) – Total vote 7,917,372
Obama – 4,120,343 (52.0%)
McCain – 3,797,029 (48.0%)
PVI – R+1
Rating – Toss Up
Along with Carolina state, Biscayne state is another that I don’t quite understand. You’d figure that the map drawers would split Florida apart into its different geopolitical regions (which are Dixie/Panhandle, Disneyworld/I-4, and Everglades/South FL). Alas, this is what we’ve got, so I’ll say that ultimately it isn’t all that different from how Florida is now. Obama’s performance is slightly better under this map because the deep red panhandle is cut out and though southern Georgia is fairly red, it’s not as red nor as populated as the Florida panhandle. As a result, the state is more dominated by the blue southeastern corridor as well as the swingy areas between Tampa/St Petersburg and Daytona Beach. The key to winning here would be the same as in today’s elections, win I-4 and you probably win unless you get killed by the other’s base in either north FL for the republicans or southeast FL for the democrats. At R+1, this state becomes our 4th toss up state along with Mohawk, Osage, and Albemarle.
Talladega – (Greater Alabama) – Total vote 2,728,866
Obama – 1,024,738 (37.6%)
McCain – 1,704,128 (62.4%)
PVI – R+16
Rating – Solid Republican
Well we all knew this state would be brutal, and it is. The addition of the Florida panhandle to most all of Alabama makes this an extremely red state. The only shock if there is one is that this state actually comes in a tick less red than neighboring Cumberland. The only places of democratic strength in the state are in Birmingham, Montgomery, and in the so-called “black belt” that crosses the middle of AL.
Bayou – (Greater Louisiana) – Total vote 2,818,737
Obama – 1,147,569 (40.7%)
McCain – 1,671,168 (59.3%)
PVI – R+13
Rating – Solid Republican
Bayou is, as one would expect, a solidly republican state. There are some pockets of democratic strength, notably in New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and the counties of the lower Mississippi valley, but overall this district is just too hostile. Conservative democrats might have a shot some years in statewide races, but at the national level, Obama, and likely any national democrat, would have no shot.
Ozark – (Greater Arkansas) – Total vote 2,787,267
Obama – 1,196,251 (42.9%)
McCain – 1,591,016 (57.1%)
PVI – R+11
Rating – Solid Republican
Ozark is a bit of a political enigma. For Barack Obama, this was probably his worst state in the nation with regard to normal democratic performance. However, Arkansas is usually quite democratic at the state level already, and now you’re adding in the hugely democratic bastion of Memphis plus rural counties in western Tennessee as well as in eastern Oklahoma that leaned D until very recently. The state is pretty much a lost cause for Obama in 2012, but you wonder if the state might keep electing democratic senators, governors, and other statewide elected officials, especially since Memphis is now in the district.
Shawnee – (Oklahoma & Texas Panhandle) – Total vote 1,817,340
Obama – 610,673 (33.6%)
McCain – 1,206,667 (66.4%)
PVI – R+20
Rating – Solid Republican
And down goes Cumberland, as Shawnee takes it’s rightful place as most republican state in the nation. How republican is it? Obama didn’t win a single county in Shawnee, and lost nearly half of them by a 3-1 margin or greater. In other words, it’s about as solidly red as you can possibly get.
Alamo – (Greater Texas) – Total vote 7,247,612
Obama – 3,229,850 (44.6%)
McCain – 4,017,762 (55.4%)
PVI – R+9
Rating – Solid Republican
Alamo is actually the least republican state of any in the southeast region that isn’t near the Atlantic seaboard. What you basically have here is a slightly shrunk version of Texas in which most of the panhandle is cut out along with the extreme east and west portion of the state. That cuts both ways politically as Republicans lose some of their extremely potent base in the panhandle and rural east, but Democrats lose a large chunk of votes in the El Paso area. The result is that Alamo isn’t all that different from how Texas is now, maybe a point or so further left, but not enough to make most democratic candidates competitive in state or national elections. Electorally, Alamo is the biggest cog in the republican base to build toward 270 electoral votes.