Welcome to Part 2 of StephenCLE's baseline House Predictions! Last week, we examined the Northeast Region, where right now I have the Democrats picking up a net of 2 seats...picking up NH-1, NH-2, and NY-24, while dropping NY-27 to the GOP. Today, we head into the Mid-Atlantic region, which includes the states of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland.
Part 2 – The Mid-Atlantic
The Mid-Atlantic Region is one that swung fairly hard toward the GOP in 2010, to the point that the region is about evenly divided between the two parties even though it is a solidly democratic region at the national level. This is one region that the Democrats will have to do well in if they are to have a chance at taking back control of the House of Representatives this cycle. We’ll start in a state that was candidate for worst of all for Dems in 2010, Pennsylvania.
PA-1 – Pennsylvania’s 1st district consists of parts of Philadelphia and its minority-laden suburbs to the south. Robert Brady will have no trouble here.
Rating – Safe D
PA-2 – The 2nd is more of Philadelphia and parts just to the west of the city. It’s one of the most democratic districts in the country, and Chaka Fattah will have no issue.
Rating – Safe D
PA-3 – In Pennsylvania’s weird numbering system, the 3rd district is in the northwest part of the state, stretching from Erie down toward Pittsburgh. This seat got redder in redistricting, and at 46% Obama, is on the fringes of what Team Blue could win in a good year. Unfortunately, their only candidate is Melissa Eaton, a relative unknown who hasn’t raised many funds. In a red district like this, that isn’t going to cut it. Mike Kelly should get another term.
Rating – Safe R
PA-4 – This seat is a republican leaning seat that is open. The republican primary was an utter mashup here, which ended with state representative Scott Perry triumphing over many others, including York County commissioner Chris Reilly. On the democratic side of the ledger, Harry Perkinson won the right to advance to the general election. With the republicans having a bonafide elected official as their candidate and given the red nature of the district, this should be a shoo-in for Team Red.
Rating – Safe R
PA-5 – Glenn Thompson’s northern PA district was weakened a bit in redistricting, to the point where it is actually bluer than PA-3 and PA-4. Thompson shouldn’t be too terribly threatened though, his democratic opponent Charles Dumas has barely raised any money and doesn’t look to be much of a known quantity.
Rating – Safe R
PA-6 – Jim Gerlach has been one of those republicans that the democrats can’t ever seem to knock off, even in good years for their party. In 2010 the democrats fielded a strong challenger in physician Manan Trivedi, and I even picked him to beat Gerlach, one of my bigger fails of the cycle. Now Gerlach resides in a swing seat at 53% Obama, making Trivedi’s task all the more difficult. Still, the democrat has raised 444k and is only about 200k down in the cash on hand race. Obama will almost certainly carry PA-6, even if he loses statewide and nationwide, so Trivedi will have a decent chance. It might take an unforced error by Gerlach to win though.
Rating – Lean R
PA-7 – This very oddly shaped district in southeastern PA is home to Patrick Meehan, who like Gerlach saw his odds increase in redistricting, this seat is now just 51% Obama. The democrats were held up in recruiting here as former rep Joe Sestak waited until almost the filing deadline to announce he wasn’t running. George Badey is the democratic candidate, and while he has raised upwards of 200k so far, he’s way behind Meehan’s mountain of cash, which stands at 1.01 million cash on hand. This seat is definitely more ancestrally republican than the Obama numbers suggest, which tells me that it’ll take a really bad campaign by Meehan for him to lose.
Rating – Likely R
PA-8 – Conventional wisdom says that this seat based in Bucks County is the most likely to flip in 2012 of the PA suburban districts. The democratic candidate is Kathy Boockvar, who was a candidate for the commonwealth court in 2010. She’s raised about 331k so far and looks to be a fairly legit challenger. Mike Fitzpatrick, the republican representative, is a fairly astute campaigner though, and he’s sitting on a mountain of cash as well, nearly 900k. This district didn’t change much in redistricting, and is a nearly even PVI at 53% Obama. I think Boockvar has a decent shot here, but goes in as the underdog for sure.
Rating – Lean R
PA-9 – Bill Shuster’s district has been described by some on DKE as the “Alabama of the northeast”, and its not hard to see why. The district actually got weakened considerably in redistricting, to just 41% Obama, but there’s no way a democrat would ever win here short of a major scandal erupting on the incumbent.
Rating – Safe R
PA-10 – Tom Marino’s district got much stronger in redistricting, standing at just 42% Obama. This is a seat that was previously held by a democrat, but I can’t imagine that happening again for a very long time.
Rating – Safe R
PA-11 – This was the heart of the Republican redistricting offensive in Pennsylvania, as they had to find a way to protect Lou Barletta, who as an incumbent is pretty underwhelming. Barletta isn’t a great campaigner and isn’t holding much cash on hand, just about 200k. The district is 47% Obama, so its republican leaning but not what I would call impossible. Unfortunately for Team Blue, their fundraising leader, Bill Vinsko, was upset in the primary by Gene Stilp, a 2010 state legislature candidate who is utterly cashless. I could see Barletta stumbling in the campaign, but I don’t think Stilp will be able to take advantage if he does.
Rating – Likely R
PA-12 – Now this seat is one of the most politically active in the nation, having seen a special election last year, redistricting mayhem this year, and a dem-on-dem primary that was won by Mark Critz over Jason Altmire, a development that I don’t think was positive for team blue heading into November, as Critz was definitely the more liberal of the two. This is just a 45% Obama district, and one that is trending rightward. 2010 PA-4 candidate Keith Rothfus, who was beaten by Altmire in 2010, is running and won his primary. The divisive democratic primary has hurt Critz’s bottom line, and he’s down 2-to-1 in cash on hand to Rothfus at present, who has raised 485k. This doesn’t look promising. I realize that this is a conserva-dem laden seat, but right now I think Rothfus wins this one.
Rating – Lean R (2nd GOP pickup)
National Score – Democrats +1
PA-13 – Allyson Schwartz’s district was once competitive, but it has been moved in closer to Philadelphia proper and is now basically a democratic vote sink. Easy win for Schwartz.
Rating – Safe D
PA-14 – Mike Doyle’s seat is a democratic vote sink centered around Pittsburgh. This area is trending more republican but it’ll be a long time before the GOP ever picks this one up.
Rating – Safe D
PA-15 – Charlie Dent, much like Jim Gerlach, has sat in a democratic district for much of his tenure and has won time after time. Now his district is about even PVI-wise, and should be an easier hold. As with the 11th district, the democrats had bad primary luck here as fundraising leader Jackson Eaton was defeated by yet another cashless unknown in Rick Daugherty. This seat should be competitive but it likely won’t be.
Rating – Safe R
PA-16 – Joe Pitts has watched his territory get bluer and bluer in recent years, and it got even bluer in redistricting, actually becoming an Obama seat at 50%. That being said, this part of Pennsylvania has lurched way to right since then, so those numbers might be somewhat misleading at this point. Pitts hasn’t done much in the way of fundraising so far this cycle, standing at just 320k on hand. His opponent is Arianna Strader, who admittedly I don’t know much about. It’s hard to see Team Blue picking this one up though. (Side note: who is in charge of house recruiting in Pennsylvania? It’s been a complete and utter disaster outside of Trivedi and Hoockvar)
Rating – Safe R
PA-17 – This was Tim Holden’s seat, but got gerrymandered hugely, and snakes into Scranton-Wilkes-Barre region from Schuylkill County. Holden was faced with the prospect of losing a primary here, and that’s just what happened as Scranton-area fresh face Matt Cartwright defeated Holden. He’s now in a dominating position to be elected in November, even though this district isn’t overly democratic, republican candidate Laureen Cummings is unknown and without any fundraising prowess.
Rating – Safe D
PA-18 – This is the most republican district in western Pennsylvania at just 44% Obama. Republican Tim Murphy is an astute campaigner and has about 1 million cash on hand, so it would seem that this district is way out of reach. Yet it figures that democrats actually drew a decent challenger here in Washington County commissioner Larry Maggi. Maggi has raised nearly 300k so far and looks to be quite visibly come the fall. However, I just feel that this district is too daunting and Murphy too tough.
Rating – Safe R
NJ-1 – We begin in New Jersey now in the 1st district, which is essentially the suburban/urban-ish district near Philadelphia. Robert Andrews faces just token opposition here, and will retain this 66% Obama district. (Sidenote: I really, really dislike New Jersey’s map, for a commission map this sure feels like a republican gerrymander)
Rating – Safe D
NJ-2 – This is a very swingy seat in southern New Jersey, one that the democrats usually win at the presidential level but evidently is more republican locally. Frank Lobiondo is hugely entrenched here. Despite that, Team Blue nearly snagged a top tier recruit in state senator Jeff Van Drew. However, it looked like Van Drew was probing to see if the seat would open up, and when it didn’t he bailed. The democratic primary is between 2006 candidate Viola Hughes and 2010 candidate Gary Stein. Either way we have a retread going up against Lobiondo in what will almost certainly be a suicide mission.
Rating – Safe R
NJ-3 – Here’s a seat that could see action. Former Philadelphia Eagle tackle Jon Runyan won this seat by a smidge over the now late John Adler. It appeared that Adler was gunning for a rematch prior to his death, and perhaps as a result, his widow Shelley Adler has jumped in. Adler has fundraised fairly well too, netting 290k cash on hand to this point, compared with Runyan’s 730k. This seat changed very little in redistricting, a 51% Obama district that is definitely a swing seat. I’m giving Runyan the edge, barely, in what will likely be a close, and possibly very emotional contest.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Republican
NJ-4 – I don’t know what’s happened in Ocean County. This area was fairly dem-friendly as recently as ten years ago. But now, this area of Jersey Shore fame has really dropped off the right end, and redistricting made it even redder. Chris Smith should have no trouble here.
Rating – Safe R
NJ-5 – This is a seat that got weakened somewhat in redistricting, but is still about R+4 or thereabout. Scott Garrett is the incumbent here, and he’s sitting on a mountain of cash, nearly 1.06 million of it. The democrats have four potential candidates in the primary, one of whom is the deputy mayor of Teaneck, but I don’t see much in the way of notoriety or fundraising from any of them so far.
Rating – Safe R
NJ-6 – Frank Pallone saw a surprisingly tough race in 2010, and survived against Highlands Mayor Anna Little. The district was made slightly more republican in redistricting but it still stands at 58% Obama. This race is fairly close from a money standpoint and Little is a decent campaigner, but Pallone certainly isn’t going to be caught napping. Hard to tell just how serious of a race this might be, but for now it’s barely on the board.
Rating – Likely D
NJ-7 – Leonard Lance proved to be a tough out for democrats back when his was a swing district, and now following redistricting it is stacked with republicans at 47% Obama. The democrats would really need an unforced error from Lance in order to get their candidate a victory.
Rating – Safe R
NJ-8 – Alberto Sires’ district was already hugely democratic, and it got even more blue in redistricting, going from 63% to 73% Obama. (Alright, honestly what independent commission does that without an ulterior motive.) At any rate, this seat is safe for Team Blue.
Rating – Safe D
NJ-9 – Here’s another democratic seat that got even more democratic in redistricting (seeing a trend here perhaps?). Two democratic representatives, Pascrell and Rothman, are going at it in the primary for the chance to all but win the general too. Their race has gotten rather ugly of late, perhaps reflecting the winner-take-all reality of the primary. The Republicans have put up only token opposition here.
Rating – Safe D
NJ-10 – This is one of the most democratic districts in the country, and stands at 85% Obama. The seat is also open, which has set off an absolute free-for-all heading into the democratic primary. Looking at the fundraising data, I really can’t say who has the edge at this point although whoever wins the Dem primary will certainly win in November.
Rating – Safe D
NJ-11 – Rodney Freylinghusen’s district used to be solidly republican, and is still right-leaning, but is now a 47% Obama seat made bluer in redistricting. However, the democrats don’t have much in the way of opposition here, as relative novice John Arvanites is the only opposition to the GOP rep. He should win easily.
Rating – Safe R
NJ-12 – Rush Holt, who I believe is the only sitting member of Congress to best IBM computer Watson in a Jeopardy! Round, is sitting pretty in a 66% Obama seat after redistricting. His only token opposition here comes from GOPer Eric Beck. At just 66k raised so far, Beck isn’t really much of a threat on the surface.
Rating – Safe D
DE-1 – John Carney won this seat in a very red year in 2010 when Michael Castle bolted for the Senate and lost to Christine O’Donnell. He shouldn’t have much to worry about here, as newcomers Rose Izzo and Tom Kovach will duel it out in the GOP primary for a shot to face him and most likely get roasted.
Rating – Safe D
MD-1 – Andy Harris is one of the most conservative republicans in the nation, and luckily for him his seat was made a 60% McCain seat in redistricting, I say luckily because he lost this then-58% McCain seat in 2008 against Frank Kratovil. He won 2 years later and should hold it this year. Wendy Rosen, who had raised 129k going into the democratic primary, was upset by John La Ferla, another primary loss for the money leader in what has been a disturbing trend for democrats across this region. Rosen would’ve had a very uphill climb anyway, but the seat is safe now.
Rating – Safe R
MD-2 – Dutch Ruppersburger’s seat didn’t change much from a partisan perspective, it stands at 61% Obama after redistricting. He did draw a decent challenger on paper in state senator Nancy Jacobs, but Jacobs hasn’t done much on the fundraising front. I think Ruppersburger is in good shape barring something strange happening.
Rating – Safe D
MD-3 – John Sarbanes’s seat didn’t change much either in redistricting as his seat went from 59% to 60% Obama. That should be in the safe zone, and he’s raised nearly a million dollars so far for his re-election bid. His opponent is 2010 gubernatorial primary candidate Eric Knowles, who is cashless and in his first general election of significance. It’s going to be a tough road for Knowles to say the least.
Rating – Safe D
MD-4 – Donna Edwards was one of the redistricting baddies for the democrats, opposing the diluting of her supremely democratic seat. Her bellyaching mattered little to the mapmakers in Annapolis, who turned her seat from 85% to 77% Obama (ooooohh, soooo scary!!). Edwards won’t have any trouble here.
Rating – Safe D
MD-5 – Steny Hoyer, the democratic house #2 in command, didn’t see much change in seat in redistricting either, it still stands at about 65% Obama. He did draw an honest-to-god decent challenger in Maryland house minority leader Anthony Odonnell, whom I would assume has some decent political and monetary connections. Still, he has a very uphill climb here.
Rating – Safe D
MD-6 – Now this seat is going to be the sight of a potentially marquee race. Representative Roscoe Bartlett watched as his very solidly republican seat was drawn down south into the DC Suburbs, turning it all the way from R+13 to D+3. He hasn’t had to really campaign in recent times either, so this is going to be rough. The democratic primary was a crowded affair, but boiled down between State house majority leader Rob Garagiola and businessman John Delaney. Delaney, the more progressive of the two, emerged as the primary winner, and though he only has 300k on hand right now, he has raised 2.5 million, and still leads Bartlett 2-1 in cash on hand. I think that Bartlett is facing a mountain that he can’t climb this time.
Rating – Lean D (4th democratic pickup)
National Score – Democrats +2
MD-7 – Elijah Cummings’s district didn’t change much in redistricting, it is still a very minority-laden, heavily democratic seat. 2010 GOP candidate Frank Mirabile is back for another go, but honestly, I don’t know how he thinks its going to end any better this time around…
Rating – Safe D
MD-8 – Chris Van Hollen, the head of the DCCC, saw his seat get unpacked a bit in redistricting in order to help the democrats win MD-6. It’s still about D+10 or thereabout. The GOP candidate is 2000 US Senate primary candidate Ken Timmerman. He doesn’t have much cash compared to Van Hollen…which kinda goes without saying when you’re the DCCC head. This race won’t get far.
Rating – Safe D
REGION ROUNDUP:
Surprisingly, I don’t see much going on here in the Mid-Atlantic, and many on DKE will probably find my predictions somewhat pessimistic. Right now I see a wash, with the Republicans picking up PA-12, and the democrats picking up MD-6, keeping our national score at Democrats +2 through the first two regions.
I would say that even is pretty much the best case scenario for the GOP here, short of holding Bartlett’s seat for a +1. The Democrats have a lot more opportunity for growth, notably in PA-6 and PA-8 for Trivedi and Boockvar, and in NJ-3 for Shelley Adler. +4 is probably best case scenario for the Dems if they flip those three, win Bartlett’s seat, and if Critz holds on against Rothfus.
Next up…The Upper South.