July Presidential and Senatorial Ratings
Welcome to StephenCLE’s Presidential and Senate Rankings. This is my July update for how I see the presidential race as well as the race for the Senate shaping up right now.
President – Mitt Romney had a pretty strong push in May to close what was a 5-6 point gap to within 1-2 on aggregate, but recently Obama has gained back a lot of the momentum. A lot of it had to do with the supreme court giving him and the Democrats victories on Immigration and Health Care Reform, which put Romney on the defensive. At this point it looks as though Obama has about a 3-5 point lead nationally in most surveys, with only the mildly questionable daily trackers giving Romney better results.
This has born out in state polling for the most part, and based partly on state numbers and partly on national, as well as my own personal hunches, here’s how I see the race at the moment.
The Map:
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Non-Competitive States:
Safe Democratic (149 electoral votes) –
Vermont (3)
Massachusetts (11)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
Maryland (10)
Illinois (20)
California (55)
Hawaii (4)
Washington DC (3)
Barack Obama has very wide leads in all of these states (15+ %) and will certainly win them all in November barring an apocalyptic event of some kind.
Safe Republican (114 electoral votes) –
West Virginia (5)
Kentucky (8)
Alabama (9)
Mississippi (6)
Arkansas (6)
Louisiana (8)
Texas (38)
Oklahoma (7)
Kansas (6)
Nebraska (5)
Wyoming (3)
Utah (6)
Idaho (4)
Alaska (3)
These are all states in which Mitt Romney holds a very large lead (assumed to be +15%, we haven’t seen much polling in some of the smallest states like ID, AK, WY, etc), and he will certainly win barring an apocalyptic event for his side.
Competitive States:
Likely Democratic (52 electoral votes) –
Maine (4)
New Jersey (14)
Minnesota (10)
New Mexico (5)
Oregon (7)
Washington (12)
These are states in which Obama has a lead in the lower double digits. These are states that are almost always in the democratic coalition and likely will be again. Some of these states are former swing states like New Mexico and Oregon, while others like New Jersey and Maine are states in the northeast where Obama’s numbers have been a little softer than 08 to this point.
Likely Republican (42 electoral votes)
South Carolina (9)
Georgia (16)
Tennessee (11)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
These are states that I see Mitt Romney holding leads in the lower double digits. I haven’t seen a lot of polling out of Georgia, but what I have seen hasn’t been as positive as I would have liked. South Carolina is a state that silently has been turning bluer in recent times, so I’m interested to see where we are there. And Tennessee has seen some surprisingly decent polling so far, so I’m putting it here too. The Dakotas are probably right where they were in 08 at this point, at least North Dakota is.
Lean Democratic (61 electoral votes) –
Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania has looked surprisingly good for Obama early in the cycle given his often dumpy approval ratings there. Romney doesn’t look like he is heavily contesting it right now either, which seems surprising to me. Michigan is weird, we’ve seen some good polling for Romney there lately but its all from GOP-leaning pollsters. Even Ras had Obama up 8 last time around, which means Obama is ahead. Wisconsin saw some close polls in June, but they were samples of the June electorate that re-elected Scott Walker, not the more left-leaning November electorate. Every poll I’ve seen of November’s electorate has Obama up by at least 7. Colorado has shown a fairly consistent lead for Obama in the mid single digits. Nevada I haven’t seen a lot of data, but what I have seen gives Obama a lead, which is probably understated given that virtually all NV polls have a republican bias of sorts.
Lean Republican (35 electoral votes)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Arizona (11)
Indiana is a state that frustrates me. We’ve seen virtually no data at all from there, and the media would have you believe that its in the bag for Romney. I don’t really believe that, but without any raw data I’m forced to hedge. Missouri I feel more strongly about, the state is trending rightward and though Obama will certainly try to win it I think he’ll come up short. Montana is another state without much data and it could be close, but right now I’m keeping it as a lean for Romney. And Arizona seems to give mid single digit leads for Romney in most polls.
Toss Up (85 electoral votes) –
New Hampshire (4)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
Iowa (6)
These are the closest states in the race, and they are a lot of the usual suspects in recent presidential politics, except maybe for Virginia and North Carolina, which have turned bluer in recent years. In fact, those are the closest to moving. Virginia I’d definitely have in Tilt D if I had tilt columns this early in the cycle, and in fact you could make a good case for it being in Lean D. Obama usually leads here, but his lead isn’t much. North Carolina is on the other side, where Romney usually leads by a small margin. It would probably be in the Tilt R column if I had one. Ohio is probably closer to Lean D than Lean R at this point as most polling results tend to give Obama a low single digit advantage. That leaves the other three states as pure toss ups at this point. I’ve seen polls in Iowa, Florida, and New Hampshire that give Romney a small lead, some that give Obama a small lead, and even a few tied polls too.
Total Electoral Vote Count:
Safe D – 149
Likely D – 52
Lean D – 61
Toss Up – 85
Lean R – 35
Likely R – 42
Safe R – 114
Under my current projections, Barack Obama has 262 electoral votes in his column, and Mitt Romney has 191 electoral votes. This really puts the strain on Romney to run the table in the battleground, assuming he cannot win any of the states I have in Obama’s column. From this setup, all Barack Obama has to do is win one of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina to win. He could also win both Iowa and New Hampshire, which would get him to 270 electoral votes exactly. Romney to win needs to sweep Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, and then has to win one of Iowa or New Hampshire to win the presidency. It’s not impossible, but it is a very hard task. More likely Romney will need a major economic event or a game-changer of another sort in order to expand the map into states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, and Pennsylvania if he is to win. We still have a long way to go in the campaign, so it could provide such a twist. On the other hand, any further shifting of the map in favor of Obama probably puts the race out of being competitive at all.
Now, onto the Senate:
The Senate currently consists of 53 democrats and 47 republicans. This balance is tenuous for the democrats because they defend a vast majority of seats up for re-election in 2012, many of them in swing states but perhaps thankfully, very few of them on red turf. Here’s where I see things right now:
The Map:
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Maine – Safe I/D - This race was thrown into a new state of flux after Olympia Snowe’s retirement, and an even newer one after independent Angus King threw his hat into the ring and immediately seized control. Since I’m counting King as an independent who will likely caucus with the democrats, I count this as a democratic pickup.
Score – Democrats +1
Vermont – Safe I/D – Bernie Sanders has nothing to fear here.
Massachusetts – Toss Up – Scott Brown vs Elizabeth Warren looks like it will be a battle of the titans as both are beloved and polling continues to be very close. Ultimately I expect the undecided, who are mostly democrats and/or dem-leaning indies, to come over to Warren’s side, but for now this remains a very close contest. Brown will have to rely on a lot of split-ticket voting in order to win, which if you’ve followed my projections in the past I’m not a big believer in, especially with control of the Senate potentially on the line.
Score – Democrats +1.5
Rhode Island – Safe D – Sheldon Whitehouse will be back for another term.
Connecticut – Likely D - Here we have a pair of primaries, on the democratic side its Chris Murphy vs Susan Bysiewicz, on the republican side its Linda McMahon vs Christopher Shays. Shays is moderate enough to turn this one into a contest but he is unlikely to win the R primary against McMahon’s millions and an R primary base that is ultra-conservative these days. I expect that either Murphy or Bysiewicz, more likely Murphy, will win this contest.
New York – Safe D – Kirsten Gillibrand is leading by a lolzy amount, and will retain her seat.
Pennsylvania – Safe D – Ditto for Bob Casey, who is popular and facing weak opposition.
New Jersey – Likely D – Bob Menendez is one of those incumbents who always looks weak on the surface, but always seems to get away with it in the end. Joe Kyrillos, the republican nominee, will have to work really hard to get elected here, and it will probably take an unforced error or three by Menendez in order for him to have a good shot.
Maryland – Safe D – Ben Cardin has nothing to worry about.
West Virginia – Likely D – I would put this one at safe, but you never know when a state so red at the national level might suddenly start voting that way for other federal offices too. Based on polling though, Joe Manchin is well ahead of his 2010 opponent, John Raese, and should win.
Virginia – Toss Up – Here’s another clash of the titans, this one between Tim Kaine and George Allen. I believe that this one will be close all the way unless somebody makes an unforced error. That’s more likely to come from Allen, and though Kaine is popular and Obama will probably win VA in the presidential race, it’ll still be tough.
Score – Democrats +1
Florida – Toss Up – This race I keep flipping back and forth between Lean D and Toss Up. Most of the polls recently have Bill Nelson with a low or middle single digit lead over representative Connie Mack. Florida is sure to be a close race in the presidential race, so there’s no reason to expect either side to pull away here either.
Score – Democrats +.5
Tennessee – Safe R – This one looks to be a complete non-contest. And to think that Harold Ford Jr. nearly won this seat too.
Ohio – Lean D – The huge amount of outside spending by the GOP has cut into Sherrod Brown’s lead a little bit, but he still leads by high single digits. Ohio looks to be another closely fought state up and down the ballot, but Josh Mandel is a weak candidate for the GOP and Brown is fairly popular as well. Definitely an uphill battle for the GOP.
Indiana – Lean R – This race, I’m going back and forth between Lean R and Toss Up, but I use the former since that’s where I think the presidential race is right now. Joe Donnelly isn’t a bad candidate for Team Blue, and will make life difficult for treasurer Richard Mourdock, but he’ll need to campaign very solidly in order to win. Very hard to tell where things really are in IN since it never gets polled.
Michigan – Likely D – Pete Hoekstra did basically what you can’t do, which is define yourself as a total loon at the outset of the race. Debbie Stabenow isn’t the most popular of senators, but she is sitting in a reliably blue state against an unpopular opponent. She’s leading by quite a bit and is likely to win.
Wisconsin – Lean R – This rating assumes that former governor Tommy Thompson wins the primary, which has become much less certain in recent days as tea party candidate Eric Hovde has made a push in the polls. Mark Neumann isn’t really out of it yet either. The democratic candidate, representative Tammy Baldwin, seems kind of a poor fit for Wisconsin as she is really, really liberal as well as being a lesbian, and that might be why she’s struggled in the polls. Still, if Hovde or Neumann wins the primary, this race immediately swings to Toss Up or maybe even Lean D.
Score – Republicans +.5
Minnesota – Safe D - This race is pretty much a joke. Amy Klobuchar is a shoo-in for re-election.
Missouri – Lean R – Claire McCaskill is probably the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent in 2012, sitting in a state that is getting redder, one in which Obama will probably lose. The GOP race is still unsettled, with three prominent challengers in the primary including former treasurer Sarah Steelman and representative Todd Akin. No matter who comes out of the GOP primary I think McCaskill’s in big trouble because she’s not even cracking 45% in most polling.
Score – Republicans+1.5
Nebraska – Safe R – Former Senator Bob Kerrey jumped in here for the Democrats after Ben Nelson’s retirement, but most polls show him likely to be crushed by surprise GOP primary winner Deb Fischer.
Score – Republicans+2.5
North Dakota – Toss Up – Most beltway pundits were ready to hand this seat to GOP representative Rick Berg when Kent Conrad retired, but hold the phone. Democrat Heidi Heitkamp has performed very admirably in polling and has even led on a few occasions. This very small state looks to be the site of one of the premier races this cycle. While I’m skeptical of split-ticket voting in general, I think Berg has some personal unpopularity from being a part of the hugely unpopular congress, and the GOP freshman group from 2010.
Score – Republicans+3
Texas – Safe R – Whomever wins the runoff between Ted Cruz and David Dewhurst is very likely to win in November.
New Mexico – Lean D – This is a battle between current 1st CD representative Martin Heinrich and former 1st CD representative Heather Wilson. Wilson I believe was rather popular and still is, but so is Heinrich, and NM has become way more liberal in the past decade or so. With Obama likely to win here, I feel this is Heinrich’s race to lose.
Wyoming – Safe R – I have better things to do than waste space on this race.
Montana – Toss Up – This is another one of those marquee contests, and it comes in one of the nation’s smallest states. The matchup is between Senator John Tester and representative Denny Rehberg. Popularity wise and PVI wise, Rehberg has the edge, but Tester has proven to be a solid campaigner and a very tough bull to lasso. If I had to call it now, I’d say Rehberg probably wins, but it’ll be a tough fight all the way.
Score – Republicans+3.5
Utah – Safe R – Orrin Hatch or Dan Lilenquist, whoever makes it out of the primary there, will win.
Arizona – Lean R – I get the feeling that a lot of DKE’ers really think this is a legit pickup opportunity. I’ve been far less bullish on Dem chances in Arizona. What I do know is that Jeff Flake has led Richard Carmona in almost all polling thus far, but his leads haven’t been great. Still, it won’t be easy for Carmona to win over the undecideds he needs in a state used to such arch-conservative representation.
Nevada – Toss Up – Here we find the last truly competitive race in the country as acting senator Dean Heller, formerly the 2nd CD representative, takes on 1st CD representative Shelley Berkley. This race shows mostly a tight contest, with the majority of polls showing Heller ahead by a very slight margin. However, I’m not swayed by that as most Nevada polls have a republican bias to them. It’ll come down to campaigning and by how much Obama wins by, which could have the necessary coattail effect for Berkley to win. Heller might have a slight edge in popularity but Berkley definitely has the geographical advantage hailing from Vegas.
Score – Republicans +3
California – Safe D – Dianne Feinstein isn’t going anywhere. Next.
Washington – Safe D – Ditto for Maria Cantwell. Besides, WA is complete and utter fools good for republicans anyway.
Hawaii – Likely D – This is kind of an odd race in that you have an extremely blue state, but with a decently popular former governor in Linda Lingle running for the GOP. In addition, the democratic primary between Ed Case and Mazie Hirono looks to be surprisingly close…though I suspect the pollsters are greatly underestimating Hirono’s support. Ultimately I think either Dem will win, pulled through by Obama winning nearly 70% atop the ballot.
Summary – So in the end, right now I see the Democrats picking up Maine for sure, though the reliability of King’s voting habits remains an open question. That’s for another diary though. Right now I see the GOP winning 3 seats, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Nebraska, although Wisconsin could certainly come off the list if Thompson loses the primary there. That gives the GOP +2 seats.
Then there are 6 seats in the toss up column…Massachusetts, Virginia, Florida, North Dakota, Montana, and Nevada. 4 of those are held by the Democrats, 2 by the Republicans. If those seats are split 3-3, that will result in another +1 for the GOP, bringing me to my current prediction of GOP +3 seats. In other words, if the election were held today…the Senate would be split 50/50.
Angus King would be the most powerful man in Washington…but again, that’s for another diary.