Welcome everybody to StephenCLE’s 2012 House Rankings. This is my 2nd election cycle of forecasting all 435 of the house of representatives elections.
2010 was a mixed year for me, being the first time I had ever done this. Most of my predictions were pretty good in the Southeast, the Plains, and the West, but I did a much less stellar job in the Northeast and the Midwest, where the Republicans ended up picking up many seats that I didn’t see them winning. In all, I projected a 47-seat gain for the GOP, which ended up being a 65-seat gain instead. Not that I was alone in this underestimation, Charlie Cook and other pundits ended up undershooting the 65 mark as well.
I think last time I paid too much attention to localization and not enough on the national congressional ballot. This year, the national ballot is going to be a bigger factor in my rankings than they were last time, but it still won’t be the main focal point. Factors such as money raised and ideological matchup with the district will be considered as well.
Regions: There are 10 geographical regions by which I divide up the house elections…thus there will be 10 entries within the baseline rankings. The regions are:
1.Northeast – (ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY) – 48 seats
2.Mid-Atlantic – (PA, NJ, DE, MD) – 39 seats
3.Upper South – (WV, KY, TN, VA, NC) – 42 seats
4.South Atlantic – (SC, GA, FL) – 48 seats
5.South Gulf – (AL, MS, LA, TX) – 53 seats
6.Eastern Great Lakes – (OH, MI, IN) – 39 seats
7.Western Great Lakes – (IL, WI, MN) – 34 seats
8.Central Plains – (IA, MO, AR, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND) – 30 seats
9.Rocky Mountains – (NM, CO, WY, MT, ID, UT, AZ, NV) – 31 seats
10.Pacific Coast – (CA, OR, WA, AK, HI) – 71 seats
As it stands currently, the GOP holds a majority of House seats in every region of the country except in the Northeast and the Pacific Coast. The Democrats will have to look to regain seats in every region of the country if they want to recover their majority in 2012. In this first installment of the series we will look to a region that Team Blue already has pretty well locked down and might actually be playing more defense than offense, the Northeast.
ME-1 – Maine’s 1st district is where we start our journey. Admittedly I made an error here as I thought Chellie Pingree was vulnerable given the avalanche that was 2010 and that she only won 55-45 in 2008, a much better year for Team Blue. But that turned out to be false as she was never seriously threatened. Her likely opponent is republican Patrick Calder, who hasn’t raised much of any cash so far. Pingree will likely win in a walk.
Rating – Safe D
ME-2 – The 2nd CD is less democratic than the 1st, but Michael Michaud has been a pretty strong fit for the district, winning by a decently large margin in 2010 and less challenged in more pro-Dem years. GOP State Senate President Kevin Raye is officially in the race per Race Tracker Wiki but I can’t find any fundraising data. Businessman Blaine Richardson is also in the race but he’s not got much visibility. If Raye’s bid is serious this might get a little interesting, but Michaud should still triumph.
Rating – Likely D
NH-1 – New Hampshire’s 1st district is a bonafide swing district, and it should be a premier race again in 2012. Freshman GOP rep Frank Guinta has certainly had some missteps in this session, and it could cost him. Former representative Carol-Shea Porter is in the race for the Democrats, and has already raised upwards of 400k, though she is behind Guinta about 3-to-1 in CoH. The democratic primary is crowded though, as Joanne Dowdell and Andrew Hosmer are in as well. Dowdell has raised about 228k so far so her challenge could be a decent one. If Shea-Porter wins the primary this is likely a toss-up race, and two polls so far have shown her ahead of Guinta by a small margin. Perhaps its optimism, but based on this early data, I’m giving CSP the edge.
Rating – Toss Up / Democratic Tilt (DEM pickup #1)
National Score – Democrats +1
NH-2 – Charlie Bass is probably in one of the biggest predicaments of any house republican going into this cycle. In 2010 he just barely edged Ann McLane Kuster to win the seat, almost surely a product of the GOP wave. This district leans democratic, and Kuster is back for a rematch. Not only that, but she has far outraised Bass so far at 1.4 million to 1 million, and holds almost 1 million in cash on hand. If she campaigns well, this is Kuster’s race to lose, even though polls currently show the race to be a dead heat.
Rating – Leans D (DEM pickup #2)
National Score – Democrats +2
VT-1 – Peter Welch is running unopposed for this seat. There’s no way he would lose anyway.
Rating – Safe D
MA-1 – With John Olver retiring, we have seen a mash up of Democrats jumping in at a chance to take this solidly blue seat. Richard Neal, who represents MA-02, is in this race and wants the seat, but former State Senator Andrea Nuciforo is taking him on in the democratic primary according to Race Tracker. Neal leads the money and recognition race. For the republicans, 2010 candidate Bill Gunn is in, and Dean Mazzarella is in as well. Regardless of who wins the primary, this will be a democratic hold barring something crazy happening.
Rating – Safe D
MA-2 – Democratic representative James McGovern of MA-3 has moved over to MA-2, and is unopposed according to Race Tracker. Even if he wasn’t, this would be an easy hold.
Rating – Safe D
MA-3 – Another case of congresscritter movement in MA-3, as MA-5 congresswoman Niki Tsongas has moved over to take her shot at re-election. Interestingly enough, 2010 GOP candidate Jon Golnik has moved over to face her, though he’ll have to defeat Tom Weaver in the primary. Neither Golnik nor Weaver have done much fundraising, and if Golnik couldn’t win in 2010, I have a hard time seeing him as competitive in 2012.
Rating – Safe D
MA-4 – Barney Frank is retiring this year, making this seat open. The field on the democratic side was very unsettled for a while but Joe Kennedy III’s entry in the race solidified everything. Kennedy brings a lot of money and name recognition to the race. On the GOP side, 2010 candidate Sean Bielat is back for another go. He’ll be opposed in the GOP primary by Mental Health Commissioner Elizabeth Childs. Even though this seat was made more red in redistricting, I don’t see how Kennedy loses.
Rating – Safe D
MA-5 – Another congresscritter move? Say it ain’t so. Edward Markey, formerly of MA-7, is seeking re-election here. The GOP primary will be between Gerry Dembrowski and Jeff Semon, two individuals that are short of recognition and cash. This one won’t be close.
Rating – Safe D
MA-6 – Here’s a rare situation, a potentially competitive congressional race in Massachusetts. John Tierney’s seat is blue but not overwhelmingly like others in the state, and 2010 candidate Richard Tisei is back for another go. He’s actually pulled in a pretty penny at 666k to date, and it only about 150k down in the cash on hand race. This is an uphill district for the GOP, but this one is at least on the board as a possibility.
Rating – Likely D
MA-7 – This district, which was once numbered as the 8th district before redistricting, pretty much surrounds Boston. Michael Capuano is running for re-election and is a shoo-in.
Rating – Safe D
MA-8 – This seat was once the 9th, and renumbered the 8th. Stephen Lynch is running for re-election here. Two relative unknowns, Joe Selvaggi and Matt Temperley, are running for the right to face Lynch in the general election. This seat by PVI should be more competitive, but Lynch seems to have an electoral lock on it.
Rating – Safe D
MA-9 – This seat extends to Cape Cod and was once the 9th district. Congressman Bill Keating is standing for re-election. Interestingly enough he has a primary challenge, as Bristol County DA Sam Sutter is running against him. His challenge isn’t expected to mount to much though. On the GOP side, the only confirmed candidate according to Race Tracker is Christopher Sheldon, who’s a relative unknown. This district is supposed to be on the fringes of what is competitive for the republicans, but this was a major recruiting fail for them.
Rating – Safe D
RI-1 – Now this is a seat that you would never expect to be competitive, seeing as Barack Obama won 67% of the vote here. Yet incumbent democrat David Cicilline is hugely unpopular to the point where he could lose. His alleged mismanagement of funds while mayor of Providence has sunk that city into a financial mess, and as it turned out he pulled the ripcord on that gig at the right time. Looking to take him out is Republican Brendan Doherty, who has raised almost 800k so far and is only down about 200k in the cash on hand race. I find it hard to believe Cicilline would lose a district this democratic, but it sounds like people really hate him.
Rating – Toss Up / Democratic Tilt
RI-2 – Congressman James Langevin is running in a slightly more red district this time around, but that shouldn’t slow him down. Three GOPers are running in the primary, and the likely favorite is Michael Riley, who has raised 197k and has as much cash on hand as the incumbent. He’s got a really tough road to hoe in this blue district though.
Rating – Safe D
CT-1 – John Larson was really never pushed in 2010, and I don’t expect 2012 to be much different. Windsor town councilman Michael McDonald is running for the GOP, but he is short on cash and recognition, plus this is a blue district.
Rating – Safe D
CT-2 – Another fairly democratic seat, this one held by Joe Courtney, this one isn’t expected to be competitive. Chris Coutu and Daria Novak are battling it out in the republican primary, but either would have a very difficult time getting traction here.
Rating – Safe D
CT-3 – Rosa DeLauro is another democratic congresscritter with very little to worry about barring something crazy happening. Her republican opponent Wayne Winsley is barely in the four figures in cash on hand and will have to fight yet another blue-voting district.
Rating – Safe D
CT-4 – This district was notable as it was the last outpost for the GOP in New England before Chris Shays’ loss in 2008. Since then they’ve taken back the two New Hampshire seats, but taking back this one will be difficult. Jim Himes is a fundraising machine, at 1.7 million so far this cycle and 1.3 million cash on hand. He holds a seat that is democratic leaning, but not hugely. The republican primary field is crowded, with Richard Wieland being the fundraising leader right now at nearly 500k cash on hand, impressive for a challenger. Chris Meek, David Orner, and Steve Obsitnik are also in the race. Himes won’t get a free pass, but I’d be surprised if he lost given Chris Murphy and Barack Obama will likely cruise upticket.
Rating – Likely D
CT-5 – This is the GOP’s best shot at a pickup in Connecticut as it is the least blue of all the seats. Chris Murphy is running for the Senate, so the seat is open. This has been a star-studded affair in terms of fundraising too, with five candidates above 900k raised. The democratic primary is a three-way contest between Elizabeth Esty, Dan Roberti, and Christopher Donovan. On the republican side, you have Lisa Wilson-Foley, Mark Greenberg, Justin Bernier, and Andrew Roraback all looking fairly legitimate. It’s really a grab bag at this point to say who will emerge, but ultimately the democrat will start with the edge due to the district’s PVI.
Rating – Lean D
NY-1 – This district was one of the closest in the nation in 2010, with Tim Bishop emerging by an extremely tight margin over Randy Altschuler. At a PVI of R+1, it is sure to be highly contested again, especially since there will be a rematch most likely. Altschuler has racked up 1.05 million raised so far to Bishops 1.43 million, and the cash on hand race is very close. Technically Altschuler has to face former democrat George Demos in the primary, but that race isn’t expected to be close. Expect a close race all the way here, with the slightest edge to the incumbent as of right now.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Democratic
NY-2 – The way that the NY courts drew the map, Steve King and Steve Israel effectively flipped seat numbers. This is King’s seat, and it still leans republican but not nearly as much as before as it is now an Obama district. The democrats thought they had a great candidate in Nassau County DA Kathleen Rice, but she withdrew from the race. The only candidate I see in there now is Vivianne Falcone. There is a candidate running against King in the GOP primary, Paul Mourino, but I can’t imagine how King would even come close to losing that. This looks to be a recruiting fail for the democrats.
Rating – Safe R
NY-3 – Just like NY-2, this is a swing seat that should be fairly competitive. However, just two unknowns are running here for the republicans, Stephen Labate and Robert Previdi. Against a heavyweight like Steve Israel, that isn’t likely to pan out.
Rating – Safe D
NY-4 – Carolyn McCarthy is another veteran of NY’s congressional delegation, and though her district was drawn more red this time around, she faces only token opposition from the republicans here. Frank Scutarro, the 2010 primary loser, is running against Francis Becker, the 2010 GOP candidate for the right to most likely lose.
Rating – Safe D
NY-5 – The old 5th district was done away with in redistricting, and Gary Ackerman hung up his shoes. Gregory Meeks, the current NY-6 congresscritter, has moved over to run here. Michael Scala and Joseph Marathone are running against Meeks in the primary, but whoever wins it will win the seat as the GOP has offered no resistance.
Rating – Safe D
NY-6 – The sixth district is another hugely democratic bastion, and with Meeks moving over to the 5th, it is open. NY State Assemblywoman Grace Meng and NYC Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley are the primary contenders here as they have fundraised the best so far, with Meng holding the cash on hand advantage. Dan Halloran is the republican candidate, but he won’t have much of a chance to win this seat.
Rating – Safe D
NY-7 – Joseph Crowley has moved out of this seat to run elsewhere, and congresswoman Nydia Velazquez has moved in. Three other democrats are running against Velazquez in the primary, including her 2010 primary opponent George Martinez and NYC Councilman Erik Dilan. No matter who wins, it’ll be a democratic hold.
Rating – Safe D
NY-8 – Incumbent Jerrold Nadler is moving over to the 10th district. It looked initial as though Edolphus Towns would seek re-election here but he retired, leaving NYC Councilman Charles Barron and State Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries to battle it out for the seat. Either way, the democrats will hold it rather easily.
Rating – Safe D
NY-9 – Republican Bob Turner fled this seat when it essentially got nuked and became a democratic vote sink. Current NY-11 congresswoman Yvette Clark parachuted in and now looks like a shoo-in for re-election.
Rating – Safe D
NY-10 – Another democratic vote sink here. Edolphus Towns’s retirement had this seat open for a little while, but then congressman Jerrold Nadler moved over from NY-8 to seek re-election here. He is unopposed.
Rating – Safe D
NY-11 – This seat is essentially the old NY-13, which runs over Staten Island and part of Brooklyn. It is a republican-leaning seat but not hugely, as it was held by Team Blue as recently as 2010. Michael Grimm, who has had a rough freshman session in terms of bad headlines, has fundraised extremely well and has over 1 million cash on hand. The democratic candidate here is Mark Murphy, who is way behind in name recognition but has raised 156k so far and holds 132k on hand. Grimm’s favorables are likely in the tank but he won’t go down easily.
Rating – Lean R
NY-12 – Another case of incumbents changing numbers here, as Nydia Velazquez moves out and current NY-14 representative Carolyn Maloney moves in. Maloney is unopposed.
Rating – Safe D
NY-13 – This district is the virtual replacement of the old 15th district. Charles Rangel’s stepping aside has set up a free-for-all on the democratic side of the ledger. Many candidates are in the race, the favorite from a fundraising standpoint is Clyde Williams. No matter who wins the primary, they are a shoo-in in the general.
Rating – Safe D
NY-14 – NY-7 congressman Joseph Crowley has selected this seat to seek re-election in. Like so many other NYC districts, this one is a shoo-in for Team Blue.
Rating – Safe D
NY-15 – Jose Serrano is seeking re-election here. This is one of the most democratic districts in the nation if not the most democratic. Easy squeasy.
Rating – Safe D
NY-16 – I’m done talking about these solid D districts. Get me outta here.
Rating – Safe D
NY-17 – Now we’re out of the city and into Westchester County and beyond, and here we have an intriguing race. Nita Lowey’s district got weakened considerably, down to just 58% Obama, and the republicans have what appears to be a really strong candidate in Rye Town Supervisor Joseph Carvin. Carvin has raised 1.07 million so far and is killing Lowey in the cash on hand race by almost 5 to 1. That’s unusual for an incumbent to be down like that. I think Lowey still has the overall edge, but she hasn’t had a real race in quite some time.
Rating – Lean D
NY-18 – Nan Hayworth has had somewhat of a bumpier ride than I would have expected in her freshman session, but she, like fellow GOPer Michael Grimm, has fundraised extremely well, to the tone of 1.68 million so far. Her transgressions don’t even come close to matching Grimm’s, and I don’t get a vibe of unpopularity here. Nevertheless, she sits in a very swingy district, and two decent democratic challengers, Wappinger Falls Mayor Matt Alexander and Cortlandt Town Councilman Richard Becker are seeking the opportunity to take Hayworth down. Becker is probably the favorite to win the primary. This is definitely one to watch.
Rating – Lean R
NY-19 – Chris Gibson, like his upstate colleague Hayworth, saw his district get weakened in redistricting, as it has an even PVI. This race had a lot of intrigue early on as Greg Ball was looking to get into the race and primary Gibson, but he eventually stood down. Then there was hope that former congressman John Hall would jump in for the democrats, but he never did. And so now we have basically a redistricting fail for Team Blue, as dutchess county legislator Joel Tyner and activist Julien Schreibman, neither of whom have raised any money at all according to Race Tracker, are battling for the right to take on Gibson. Sadly, I don’t see this race as competitive at the moment, though it should be.
Rating – Likely R
NY-20 – The Albany-based 20th district is where Paul Tonko is seeking re-election. The district was slightly weakened in redistricting to 58% Obama, the same as Nita Lowey’s, but unlike Lowey, Tonko isn’t facing much opposition here. The presumptive republican candidate is Robert Dieterich, who is unknown and doesn’t have much cash.
Rating – Safe D
NY-21 – Bill Owens became a congressman basically thanks to Dede Scozzafava, who endorsed him instead of conservative candidate Doug Hoffman in the 2009 special election here. He narrowly held off Matt Doheny in the 2010 general, but Doheny is back for a rematch here. Owens leads the cash on hand race by about 300k at this point. This district is odd, an Obama district that is very swingish nationally, but is very, very ancestrally republican. I think this one will be very tight again…slight edge given to the incumbent right now.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Democratic
NY-22 – Richard Hanna got a nice assist from the mapmakers as when Maurice Hinchey’s district was cut apart, he picked up some of that districts more conservative territory. At 49-49 Obama-McCain, this is one the democrats won’t pick up without a solid challenger, but they might have it in former attorney general candidate Sean Maloney, who has raised 325k so far and is dead even with Hanna in the cash on hand race. Still though, Maloney would have to run a fantastic campaign to beat Hanna.
Rating – Likely R
NY-23 – This district is strange. It stretches along the southern border of upstate New York from the Lake Erie coast to past Ithaca. Tom Reed is the congressman here, and though he saw his district weakened to 50% Obama, I think he stands a really good chance at re-election, if nothing else because the democrats haven’t fielded a strong challenger. Tompkins Country Legislator Nate Shinigawa and Melissa Dobson are battling for the right to take on Reed. Since this seat is so different you can’t rule out the possibility of an upset, but in this ancestrally-GOP territory, it would take something really strange to happen.
Rating – Likely R
NY-24 – Ann Marie Buerkle is perhaps one of the worst fits for a district in this congressional session, as she’s a hardcore wingnut representing a Syracuse-based district that went hard for Barack Obama in 2008. Former congressman Dan Maffei, who narrowly lost in 2010, is gunning for a rematch, and is leading the fundraising and cash on hand races. A republican pollster this week shows Buerkle narrowly ahead, but given the nature of the district and the fact that she doesn’t have a money advantage, I have a hard time seeing a path to victory for her unless Maffei doesn’t campaign well. The key here will be the college age vote, which was almost non-existent in 2010.
Rating – Lean D (DEM pickup #3)
National Score – Democrats +3
NY-25 – The mapmakers drew a district specifically for Rochester, and Louise Slaughter moved right away to seek re-election here. At 59% Obama, its not a district that would be competitive for the GOP in much other than a 2010-style year. That being said, the GOP landed a strong recruit in Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks, who is nipping at Slaughter’s heels in the cash on hand race. Slaughter hasn’t had a real race in quite a while, so her campaign skills might be somewhat rusty. That being said, she’d have to screw up considerably to not win.
Rating – Likely D
NY-26 – This district is essentially a vote sink surrounding Buffalo and Niagara Falls. Brian Higgins decided to seek re-election here and is a shoo-in.
Rating – Safe D
NY-27 – Kathy Hochul, who shockingly won a special election for this seat in 2011 mostly due to backlash from the Ryan budget and opposition to medicare/SS cuts within it, got hosed in redistricting, getting a rural, 44% Obama district in western NY. She has nearly 1 million in cash on hand and has been a fundraising machine, but she’ll need every bit of it. 2011 primary loser David Bellavia and Erie County Executive Chris Collins are battling for the GOP nomination, a fight that Collins should win. Collins is a strong recruit, and won’t be easy for Hochul to beat, especially in a district this red.
Rating – Lean R (GOP pickup #1)
National Score – Democrats +2
NORTHEAST REGION RECAP –
Democratic Pickups – 3 (NH-1, NH-2, NY-24)
Republican Pickups – 1 (NY-27)
Other Competitive Seats to Watch – RI-1, CT-5, NY-1, NY-11, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21
If the Republicans do really well in the Northeast, they could conceivably gain seats. The path for that would be to hold the two New Hamshire seats, and then pick up some of the seats in upstate New York, maybe complimenting that with Rhode Island’s 1st or Connecticut’s 5th. But all the same, the Dems could all but sweep the region and gain up to 5 or 6 seats if they sweep New Hampshire, Michael Grimm and Nan Hayworth go down in flames, and Kathy Hochul proves to be a northeastern Chet Edwards. At this point I have the Democrats gaining a modest 2 seats, losing Kathy Hochul, but getting wins from Carol-Shea Porter, Dan Maffei, and Ann McLane Kuster.
Next…Part 2 – The Mid-Atlantic