Welcome DKE'ers to StephenCLE's Baseline House Rankings. Last time, we went through the Northeast Region of the country, a democratic bastion that saw Team Blue tabbed to pick up a net of 2 seats in November. Today, we head into a region that is mostly republican but contains two swing states and is the site of a major social and demographic shift toward the democratic party within the past 8-10 years. I'm talking of course about the Coastal Southeast. This region contains the states of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
Perhaps no region in the country, other than maybe the Great Lakes, has seen the impact of Republican gerrymandering more than the Coastal Southeast. The republicans hold the majority of House seats in all of these states, in most cases by wide margins. Can democrats make a dent into the republican dominance here? Let's find out.
NOTE: I compiled this diary before last night's Georgia primary, so some of the candidates in GA districts are in fact known now.
Virginia –
VA-1 – nobody vs Rob Wittman-inc
We start in the Commonwealth of Virginia, and this first district is unopposed by democrats. Republican Rob Wittman will be going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R
VA-2 – Suzanne Patrick vs Scott Rigell-inc
The Virginia Beach-based 2nd district is the swingiest in the state. Obama won here by 1.5% over Romney, and both parties have held this seat within the past decade. Republican Scott Rigell won by 8% over an underfunded opponent in 2012. Democrats have landed a very solid recruit this cycle in former Navy commander Suzanne Patrick. The 2nd is a military heavy district in a military heavy state, so her profile fits like a glove. She’s fundraised okay so far, holding 195k in the bank to Rigell’s 665k. Rigell's money total actually isn't that impressive compared to some of the incumbents we'll see later on in this diary. If Patrick is able to stay financially competitive this will be a big race to watch. Right now I give Rigell the slightest of edges, but this one will likely be tight.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R
VA-3 – Robert Scott-inc vs nobody
The 3rd district takes in Norfolk and Hampton Roads, and is dark blue. Republicans did not put up a challenger to incumbent Robert Scott so he’ll be going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
VA-4 – nobody vs Randy Forbes-inc
You know what really pisses me off? Democrats not contesting a 49% Obama district like this one. Seriously, this district’s PVI is about R+3 and we don’t even have a candidate. That is pathetic.
Rating – Safe R
VA-5 – nobody vs Robert Hurt-inc
Oh by the way, we left the 5th district uncontested too. Nice going Virginia Dems, you sure have your ducks in a row this election cycle.
Rating – Safe R
VA-6 – nobody vs Bob Goodlatte-inc
Seeing a trend here? The 6th district is uncontested as well. At least this district was one in which Obama didn’t crack 40% so it’s not like Team Blue had much of a chance to begin with barring a scandal.
Rating – Safe R
VA-7 – nobody vs Eric Cantor-inc
I guess Virginia Democrats are like Massachusetts Republicans. When they see a district they don’t like, they don’t contest it. Yeesh.
Rating – Safe R
VA-8 – Open seat race
Meanwhile, up in the DC burbs, you have a monster clown car primary for the ages, as no less than 9 democrats are all vying for the primary nod in this massively democratic district. Micah Edmond is the republican candidate here, but he’ll be crushed by whoever emerges from the Dem primary.
Rating – Safe D
VA-9 – nobody vs Morgan Griffith-inc
Yet another republican seat with no democratic candidate. Yawn.
Rating – Safe R
VA-10 – Open seat race – John Foust vs Barbara Comstock
Now here’s a really interesting contest. Longtime GOP representative Frank Wolf is retiring this year, setting up a battle in this swing district. Mitt Romney won here by 1% in 2012, and Obama won it by 3% in 2008, making the seat about R+2. Both parties landed impressive candidates here too. The democratic candidate is Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust, whereas the GOP candidate is state delegate (representative) Barbara Comstock. Both candidates are fundraising very solidly to this point, with Foust holding 626k in the bank and Comstock holding 520k on hand. I think this is going to be a knock down, drag out fight between two fairly experienced politicians. I’m giving Comstock the tiniest edge because of the PVI, but boy is this one to watch.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R
VA-11 – Gerry Connolly-inc vs Suzanne Scholte
Gerry Connolly was able to hold this northern Virginia seat narrowly in 2010, and then republicans responded by making it even bluer, so it’s not exactly high on Team Red’s pickup list. Suzanne Scholte will give her best effort but short of a scandal or something big against Connolly, it won’t be enough.
Rating – Safe D
North Carolina –
NC-1 – GK Butterfield-inc vs Arthur Rich
We move into the Tar Heel State now, which is a boring one as far as the House is concern. The 1st is a rural black majority district at 71% Obama, so democrat GK Butterfield won’t have any trouble beating republican Arthur Rich in November.
Rating – Safe D
NC-2 – Clay Aiken vs Renee Ellmers-inc
Renee Ellmers was the biggest beneficiary of North Carolina’s stupid law that says the governor can’t veto the legislature’s redistricting plans. Because of that law, the GOP passed a crazy gerrymander, and the 2nd went from a swing district to a 57% Romney district. You’d think she’d be safe here, but she has a bit of a reputation as an underperformer. Furthermore, her democratic opponent is none other than singer/musician Clay Aiken, who narrowly beat the tragic late Keith Crisco in the democratic primary. Aiken’s celebrity status might attract some outside spending and media coverage here, but at the end of the day, this is still an R+9 seat. Ellmers would have to run a horrid campaign to lose.
Rating – Likely R
NC-3 – Marshall Adame vs Walter Jones-inc
This coastal district nearly became the first this cycle to see its incumbent lose in the primary round, but republican Walter Jones was able to worm his way through to the general election. Apparently his crime is being too moderate. In either case, Jones shouldn’t have as much trouble in the general as he did in the primary because of how red the seat is. At R+10, its not exactly high on the Democrats’ target list. They did get a candidate with an interesting profile in Marshall Adame, who is a 22-year veteran of the Marines as well as a former US diplomat. I would say in a less red district that maybe the disaffected conservatives who voted against Jones in the primary would stay home and it would help Adame turn an inside straight, but given the PVI it’s hard to imagine. Still, I’m going to put it up on the board just in case we get that sort of perfect storm situation.
Rating – Likely R
NC-4 – David Price-inc vs Paul Wright
The 4th district is basically a democratic vote sink in the research triangle. David Price is the incumbent here and he’ll win easily against republican Paul Wright.
Rating – Safe D
NC-5 – ??? vs Virginia Foxx-inc
The 5th district takes in much of northwestern North Carolina. The odious Virginia Foxx is the representative here, and in this red district she should be a shoo-in to win another term. Amazingly, 4 democrats jumped in to get a chance at challenging her in the general election. Not surprisingly, the dem primary went to a runoff, with businessman Josh Brannon and 2012 gubernatorial candidate Gardenia Henley emerging as the top 2. Regardless of who wins the runoff I can’t see either knocking off Foxx.
Rating – Safe R
NC-6 – Open seat contest
The 6th district, like many in North Carolina’s gerrymandered map, clocks in at about R+9 or R+10 PVI. It’s a district that should be solidly republican. Democrat Laura Fjeld will try to change that in November, but her odds are long. The republican primary was a 9-man clown car that went to a runoff between Rockingham County district attorney Phil Berger and Some Dude Mark Walker. Whoever wins the runoff should win in November.
Rating – Safe R
NC-7 – Open seat contest
The 7th district in southeastern North Carolina was one that frustrated republicans for a long time. Democrat Mike McIntyre held this seat for a long time, even surviving a republican redistricting last cycle by a super slim margin. But perhaps knowing that his time was growing thin, McIntyre retired, prompting an open seat. New Hanover County Commissioner Jonathan Barfield is the democratic candidate in the race. The republican is 2012 candidate David Rouzer, who came agonizingly close to beating McIntyre last time around. Since the district is hugely republican in nature and since Rouzer holds a 510k to 9k lead in cash on hand, this should be an easy pickup for Team Red.
Rating – Safe R (2nd GOP pickup, overall score D+1)
NC-8 – Antonio Blue vs Richard Hudson-inc
The 8th is another very republican district. Richard Hudson is the incumbent, and he should have no trouble with democratic candidate Antonio Blue
Rating – Safe R
NC-9 – nobody vs Robert Pittenger-inc
Oddly enough, the 9th district is more democratic than some of these NC districts I’ve gone through so far, yet here Team Blue didn’t field a candidate. Huh.
Rating – Safe R
NC-10 – Tate McQueen vs Patrick McHenry-inc
Here’s another snoozer of a contest. Patrick McHenry sits in a very republican district in western North Carolina. There was a possibility that Asheville mayor Mark Meadows would jump into the race, but he declined, and the democratic candidate is Some Dude Tate McQueen. McHenry will win easily.
Rating – Safe R
NC-11 – Tom Hill vs Mark Meadows-inc
This is the most republican district in North Carolina. Incumbent Mark Meadows won this seat in 2012, beating democrat Hayden Rogers by 15%. Rogers actually outperformed Barack Obama here by quite a bit, so that gives you an idea of the territory. The democratic candidate is the guy that lost the 2012 primary to Rogers, Tom Hill. He may be rejoicing getting to the general this time, but he’s going down.
Rating – Safe R
NC-12 – Open seat race
This has been for some time now one of the ugliest districts ever conceived. It’s a dem vote sink stretching from Charlotte north to Greensboro. Mel Watt, the incumbent here, retired. A massive clown car primary on the democratic side was won by state representative Alma Adams, who knocked out fellow state rep Marcus Brandon and state senator Malcolm Graham. The republican is Vince Coakley. In the end, Adams will win this one big.
Rating – Safe D
NC-13 – Brenda Clearly vs George Holding-inc
The 13th district is the 4th most democratic in the state, but at R+7, that’s not saying much. George Holding is the republican incumbent here. Brenda Cleary is the democratic candidate. I can’t find anything about her in terms of profile or fundraising that would lead me to believe that she’s up for this massive uphill climb.
Rating – Safe R
South Carolina –
SC-1 – nobody vs Mark Sanford-inc
You know a district is bad when they’ll elect Mark Sanford over Stephen Colbert’s sister. Not surprisingly, democrats abandoned this one for the remainder of the cycle.
Rating – Safe R
SC-2 - ??? vs Joe Wilson-inc
We move from disgraced former governors to the guy that couldn’t keep his mouth shut during the State of the Union. Obama lie-mongerer Joe Wilson lies here, and at R+12, its doubtful that he’ll ever lose to a democrat. Democrats Phil Black and Ed Greenleaf are duking it out for the chance to beat Wilson in November, but it’s a fat chance.
Rating – Safe R
SC-3 – ??? vs Jeff Duncan-inc
The 3rd district is the most republican in the state. Jeff Duncan should be a shoo-in for re-election. Democrats Hosea Cleveland and Barbara Mullis are battling in the primary for the right to get annihilated in November.
Rating – Safe R
SC-4 – nobody vs Trey Gowdy-inc
This is Bob Inglis’s old seat. You remember him? He was the guy that got kicked out because he compromised with democrats too much. Yeah, this district is pretty much a wasteland, so democrats abandoned it as well.
Rating – Safe R
SC-5 – Tom Adams vs Mick Mulvaney-inc
At R+7, the 5th district is one that could conceivably be competitive under the right circumstances. This is not that year though. Democrat Tom Adams is an underfunded Some Dude. That’s not going to get it done against incumbent Mick Mulvaney.
Rating – Safe R
SC-6 – James Clyburn-inc vs ???
The 6th district is basically a democratic vote sink taking in most dem voters between Columbia and Charleston. James Clyburn is the incumbent. He’ll have no trouble defending the seat against either Anthony Culler or Leon Winn, whichever unfortunate republican soul makes it out of the primary.
Rating – Safe D
SC-7 – Gloria Tinubu vs Tom Rice-inc
The 7th is the 2nd most democratic in the state, but at R+7, it’s a bit of an uphill slog for Team Blue. This race is a rematch of last election cycle, with democrat Gloria Tinubu going up against incumbent republican Tom Rice. Rice won last time around by 11%, which more or less matched the presidential vote. The margin could be similar this time, which means I have to put it on the board, but its hard to see Tinubu doing better in a midterm than in a presidential year.
Rating – Likely R
Georgia –
GA-1 – Open seat race
Moving into the Peach State now, we start in the southeastern 1st district. This seat is open due to Jack Kingston’s run for the Senate. There is a lot of star power in the republican primary, led by state senator Earl Carter, former Newt Gingrich aide John McCallum, and surgeon/army ranger Bob Johnson. The democrats in the race, Brian Reese, Marc Smith, and Amy Tavio, have lesser profiles. Johnson, Carter, and McCallum all have at least 372k in the bank whereas the democrats have raised bupkus.
Rating – Safe R
GA-2 – The 2nd district is the most even PVI-wise in the state at D+6, but its not exactly high on republicans’ hit lists. Sanford Bishop is the democratic incumbent. The republicans in the race are Vivian Childs and Greg Duke, neither of which have any sort of political profile or cash. Safe.
Rating – Safe D
GA-3 – nobody vs Lynn Westmoreland-inc
No democrats filed here, so the seat will stay red. Incumbent Lynn Westmoreland does have a primary challenger, but that’s immaterial for our purposes.
Rating – Safe R
GA-4 – Hank Johnson-inc vs nobody
The Atlanta-based 4th is going uncontested by republicans. Hank Johnson has a primary challenger, but again, that doesn’t matter as the seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D
GA-5 – John Lewis-inc vs nobody
Incumbent John Lewis is unopposed here, so he’ll be returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
GA-6 – Robert Montigel vs Tom Price-inc
This seat in Atlanta’s northern suburbs is very republican. Tom Price should have no trouble fending off challenger Robert Montigel.
Rating – Safe R
GA-7 – Thomas Wight vs Rob Woodall-inc
Another suburban district, this should be an easy hold for incumbent Rob Woodall. The democratic challenger is Thomas Wight, but it’s doubtful that he has the wight stuff for this encounter.
Rating – Safe R
GA-8 – nobody vs Austin Scott-inc
No democrat stepped forward to run here, so Austin Scott is going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R
GA-9 – David Vogel vs Doug Collins-inc
The 9th district is one of the most republican districts in the country. The republican incumbent is Doug Collins, and he should have no issues here. The only real surprise is that team blue has a candidate in David Vogel.
Rating – Safe R
GA-10 – Open seat race
The 10th district is being vacated thanks to Paul Broun’s run for Senate. The GOP has a 7-way clown car of a primary (are you noticing a theme here?), with the most likely nominee being former state representative Donna Sheldon. Jody Hice, Brian Slowinski, and Stephen Simpson are some of the other names in the mix. The democratic candidate is attorney Ken Dious. Given that this seat is about R+13, I don’t see any pathway to a democratic victory.
Rating – Safe R
GA-11 – The 11th district is being vacated by Phil Gingrey, who also decided to run for the Senate. A big slew of brand-name republicans are running here, including state house majority whip Edward Lindsey, state senator Barry Loudermilk, and former representative and presidential candidate Bob Barr. On the flip side, no democrats are running.
Rating – Safe R
GA-12 – John Barrow-inc vs ???
The 12th district is one sore spot for republicans. They re-jigged this district in redistricting to try to take out longtime incumbent John Barrow, to which Barrow basically replied that their kung fu was weak, beating republican Lee Anderson by 7 points. This time around, a whole new slew of names are battling in the R primary for the chance to take on Barrow and his crazy 1.78 million warchest. 2012 primary candidate Rick Allen is in the race, as is businessman Eugene Yu and state representative Delvis Dutton. Allen has been fundraising very well and has 460k in the bank, while Yu has an extremely impressive 902k, so if one of them emerges from the primary they will be competitive with Barrow on the airwaves. The prospect of a runoff might be somewhat of a detriment to GOP hopes here as they’ll have to spend additional cash before the general. Ultimately, I feel that Barrow is a really, really strong incumbent that is battle tested and has tons of resources at his disposal. He’s got the edge.
Rating – Lean D
GA-13 – David Scott-inc vs nobody
No republicans filed in the 13th, which is a hugely democratic seat. It will stay blue in November.
Rating – Safe D
GA-14 – nobody vs Tom Graves-inc
No democrats filed in the 14th, which is a hugely republican seat. It will stay red in November.
Rating – Safe R
Florida –
FL-1 – James Bryan vs Jeff Miller-inc
We move on to the Sunshine State, and this first district is in the western panhandle. It’s massively republican ground, and republican Jeff Miller should have no trouble holding the seat against democrat James Bryan.
Rating – Safe R
FL-2 – Gwen Graham vs Steve Southerland-inc
The 2nd district is a district centered on Tallahassee. It contains a lot of old-school Dixie democrats, aka Demosaurs, along with a sizeable black population. That being said, it’s still about R+5 as Obama did poorly in this district in both presidential runs. Republican Steve Southerland isn’t exactly a strong incumbent though, as he won his race in 2012 without getting any crossover support at all. The thinking here is that he may be a weak incumbent. 2012 primary candidate Gwen Graham, the daughter of former Governor/Senator Bob Graham, is back. This time she’s in the general election, and she’s got a huge fundraising warchest of 1.79 million. Southerland is doing very well himself with 1.49 million, but whenever you’re looking up at your challenger in the money game, that’s not good for an incumbent. The PVI of this district is a bit misleading too, as local and state dems often do better in FL-2 than what Barack Obama’s numbers show. I think this is definitely a race to watch. Right now I give Southerland a paper thin edge, but wow is this one likely to be tight.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R
FL-3 – Marihelen Wheeler vs Ted Yoho-inc
The 3rd district is a bright red seat in northern Florida. Incumbent Ted Yoho shouldn’t have too much to worry about here. Democrat Marihelen Wheeler will try to beat him, but in an R+14 district like this, you’re pretty much relying on a scandal to have a shot.
Rating – Safe R
FL-4 – nobody vs Ander Crenshaw-inc
There are some third party candidates running against Ander Crenshaw, but no democrats filed. Team Red will continue to hold this one into the next session.
Rating – Safe R
FL-5 – Corrine Brown-inc vs ???
This district is a nasty looking Dem vote sink stretching from Jacksonville to Orlando. It’ll most likely get redrawn in 2015 due to the Fair Districts amendment, but for now, it’s a democratic vote sink. 2 republicans, Thuy Lowe and Gloreatha Scurry-Smith are battling for the right to get dismantled.
Rating – Safe D
FL-6 – David Cox vs Ron DeSantis-inc
The 6th district is about R+10, so it’s more fertile ground for republicans. Incumbent Ron Desantis actually underperformed Mitt Romney’s margin in 2012, so you could say he isn’t a particularly strong incumbent. But I don’t see underfunded democrat David Cox being able to take advantage.
Rating – Safe R
FL-7 – Wesley Neuman vs John Mica-inc
The 7th district is a pinkish colored district at R+4. The incumbent, John Mica, is a particularly strong one though. He got 59% of the vote in 2012 while Mitt Romney only got 51%. The democrat here is Wesley Neuman, another underfunded challenger. He won’t have a chance against Mica.
Rating – Safe R
FL-8 - ??? vs Bill Posey-inc
The 8th district is about R+9, so it’s not exactly easy pickings for democrats. The republican incumbent, Bill Posey, is pretty much an establishment type that won’t hang himself in a campaign. Two democrats, Gabriel Rothblatt and Corry Westbrook, are facing off in the primary. Westbrook has some cash too, at 164k, which is notable since Posey doesn’t have a huge warchest at 608k. However, I just see this district as too red for that to make much of a difference.
Rating – Safe R
FL-9 – Alan Grayson-inc vs ???
The 9th district is a kinda-sorta democratic vote sink in central Florida, aka the Disneyworld District. Incumbent Alan Grayson is no Disney Princess though, to most republicans he’s probably Jafar, Cruella Deville, and Malificent all put together. Three republicans, Jorge Bonilla, Carol Platt, and Peter Vivaldi, will go at it for the right to try on the proverbial glass slipper in November. I don’t see it fitting.
Rating – Safe D
FL-10 – The 10th district was the site of a close contest, as incumbent Daniel Webster defeated democratic challenger Val Demings by 3%. That was an impressive run by Demings because Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by 8% here. Webster doesn’t appear to have great opposition this time, as Some Dudes Michael McKenna and Shayan Modarres, and former Eustis City Commissioner Bill Ferree are the democratic challengers. Webster might be a weak incumbent, but he does have 1.96 million in the bank whereas the democrats have raised very little. The closeness of last cycle plus the PVI is enough for me to put this on the board, but I’m not feeling confident.
Rating – Likely R
FL-11 – David Koller vs Richard Nugent-inc
The 11th district is another solidly red district. The republican incumbent, Richard Nugent, should be able to easily dispatch democrat David Koller.
Rating – Safe R
FL-12 – nobody vs Gus Bilirakis-inc
I find it strange that this district is only 54-44 Romney, meaning there are much redder districts around that have democratic candidates running, yet here we don’t have a candidate. That’s failure.
Rating – Safe R
FL-13 – nobody vs David Jolly-inc
And speaking of failure…holy St Petersburg Batman! First off, we push out one of our best candidates to be had in attorney Jessica Ehrlich, for former state CFO Alex Sink. That seemed okay at the time, but Sink ran a campaign that could be described as iffy at best, and lost the special election to David Jolly in this R+1 district. Then, some moron at the Pinellas County democratic party thought it was a good idea to push out reverend Manuel Sykes, a real democrat, for Ed Jany, an independent who ultimately didn’t even make the race. So now we have no democrat running here. I get that most dems are probably waiting for the Fair Districts suit to end up putting all of St Petersburg into this district and thus make it a blue seat, but this was a total sham as far as this cycle is concerned.
Rating – Safe R
FL-14 – Kathy Castor-inc vs nobody
The Tampa Bay-based 14th is going uncontested by republicans. Kathy Castor will be back.
Rating – Safe D
FL-15 – Alan Cohn vs Dennis Ross-inc
The 15th district is between R+5 and R+6, so it’s on a fringe of what a democrat could conceivably win in a normal circumstance. Incumbent Dennis Ross did not have a race in 2012, so it remains to be seen if he has any campaign rust to shake off. The democratic challenger here is television reporter Alan Cohn. Cohn has raised about 160k thus far, but he’s well behind Ross at 718k. If he were to kick his fundraising into high gear I could see this being interesting, but for now Ross has a nice edge.
Rating – Likely R
FL-16 – Henry Lawrence vs Vern Buchanan-inc
Vern Buchanan has been a historically troubled incumbent. He was nearly knocked out in 2006, and had a tougher than expected race in 2012 in which he underperformed Mitt Romney by 4%. This time around though his only opposition comes from underfunded democrat Henry Lawrence. In this R+7 district, I think Buchanan will be fine this cycle.
Rating – Safe R
FL-17 – Will Bronson vs Tom Rooney-inc
The 17th district is another republican bastion. Tom Rooney knocked off democrat Will Bronson by 17% in 2012. Bronson is back for another go this cycle, but I can’t see him faring any better this time.
Rating – Safe R
FL-18 – Patrick Murphy-inc vs ???
This was one of the closest congressional races in the nation in 2012. Democrat Patrick Murphy knocked off Republican firebrand Allen West by half a percent in this district that Mitt Romney carried by 4%. It’s R+3 in PVI, which means that republicans will be gunning hard to win it back. The R primary is crazy. You have a lot of names, including former state representative Carl Domino, former Tequesta councilman Calvin Turnquest, and Alan Schlesinger, who was a 2006 Senate candidate, in Connecticut! Murphy must have known a tough challenge was coming because he’s fundraised since day 1, and holds a mind blowing 2.84 million in cash on hand. None of the republican candidates are over 100k on hand and the primary is still to come. At this point I have to conclude that Murphy has the edge regardless of who emerges just because of that monstrous financial edge.
Rating – Lean D
FL-19 – Open seat race
The 19th is open due to being vacated by Trey Radel following his being arrested for cocaine. There will actually be a special election here in June to fill the vacancy followed by the normal November election. The republican candidate in the special is Curt Clawson, the democrat is April Freeman. In a less red district this might be an intriguing race, but the district is R+13, so I’m fairly confident it will go red in June and stay red in November.
Rating – Safe R
FL-20 – Alcee Hastings-inc vs Jay Bonner
The 20th district is the 2nd most democratic in Florida at 83% Obama. Alcee Hastings has a stiff primary challenge from Palm Beach Commissioner Jean Enright. Whoever wins that will walk all over republican Jay Bonner in November.
Rating – Safe D
FL-21 – Ted Deutsch-inc vs nobody
Republicans are not contesting this south Florida district, so this seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D
FL-22 – Lois Frankel vs ???
This district is D+3, so you’d think that republicans would be contesting it, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Two underfunded republicans, Andrea McGee and Jeremy Rodgers, are hoping to earn the right to face Frankel. This looks and feels like a recruiting fail on the republican side. I’m not seeing a pathway to victory for either of them unless there is a republican wave in November.
Rating – Safe D
FL-23 – Debbie Wasserman-Schulz-inc vs ???
To a lot of republicans, Debbie Wasserman-Schulz is vile and nasty, perhaps even a blowhard. They’d love to take her out. The trouble is that her district is D+10. One of the republicans running in the primary here, Joe Kaufman, has actually raised 399k thus far. The only problem is that Schulz is sitting on a 1.4 million warchest. This is a no-go for Team Red.
Rating – Safe D
FL-24 – Frederica Wilson-inc vs Dufirstson Julio Neree
This north Miami district is the most democratic district in Florida and one of the most democratic in the nation. I almost can’t believe that the republicans have a real candidate here. Frederica Wilson, unless she loses to Michael Etienne in the primary, will be going back to Congress. Either way it’ll stay blue.
Rating – Safe D
FL-25 – nobody vs Mario Diaz Balart-inc
This may be an ethnic Cuban district and very ancestrally republican, but come on guys. Barack Obama had 49% here last election and democrats didn’t put up a candidate?! That’s bull.
Rating – Safe R
FL-26 – Joe Garcia vs ???
This has the makings of a marquee race. This seat has an R+1 PVI, but Barack Obama took 53% here in 2012. Joe Garcia took out scandal plagued David Rivera to win this seat. Republicans are going after him hammer and tongs though. Cutler Bay mayor Ed MacDougall, Miami-Dade Commission Chair Joe Martinez, and Miami-Dade school board member Carlos Curbelo, among others, are battling it out in the primary for the right to take on Garcia. Curbelo has been fundraising extremely well, and if he makes it out of the primary, his current total of 953k will keep him competitive with Garcia’s imposing warchest of 2.28 million. We’ll see how the primary shakes out, but I feel that Garcia, despite having an easier district on paper, will have to fight harder than his comrade Patrick Murphy because he won’t have complete ownership of the airwaves like Murphy will. He has the edge, but not by a lot.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D
FL-27 – nobody vs Ileana Ros-Lehtinen-inc
You’ve got to be freaking kidding me. This district is zooming to the left and Barack Obama put up 53% here in 2012 and what…we don’t have a candidate to face Ileana Ros-Lehtinen?! Wow. Folks, we’re just giving republicans the majority with mega fails like this.
Rating – Safe R
Coastal Southeast Current Totals:
Safe D – 19 seats
Likely D – 0 seats
Lean D – 2 seats
Toss Up/Tilt D – 1 seat
Toss Up/Tilt R – 3 seats
Lean R – 0 seats
Likely R – 5 seats
Safe R – 42 seats
Total DEM Seats – 22 seats
Total GOP Seats – 50 seats
Total DEM Seats (Northeast + Coastal Southeast) = 85
Total GOP Seats (Northeast + Coastal Southeast) = 74
Total DEM Pickups – NY-11, NY-19, NJ-3
Total GOP Pickups – NY-21, NC-7
Current Swing - D+1
Next diary...the Great Lakes