Hello everybody, and welcome to StephenCLE's House Baseline Rankings, Part 1.
Rating the House of Representatives is, in a nutshell, the main reason for my being on this site as an active member. I started doing House prognostication in the 2010 election cycle, so this is my 3rd trip through the election cycle now. I do ratings for Senate, President, and Governors as well, but I consider this the most fun, the most artful, and the most ridiculous of all. As you'll see, there are a lot of factors to consider when rating House races, like incumbency, PVI, fundraising, candidate quality, the national generic ballot (which killed me in 2010) and much more. Let's jump right into it.
I will, over the next several months, preview all 435 House races in the nation. I will accomplish that by breaking the House up by geographical region. Here are the seats by diary number:
Diary 1 – New England + Mid-Atlantic – 87 seats
Diary 2 – Coastal Southeast – 72 seats
Diary 3 – Great Lakes – 65 seats
Diary 4 – Interior Southeast + Great Plains – 73 seats
Dairy 5 – Desert Southwest + Rocky Mountains – 67 seats
Diary 6 – Pacific Coast – 73 seats
Today is the first diary, and we start our journey in the Northeast, where I have combined the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions into one block.
New England –
Maine –
ME-1 – Chellie Pingree-inc vs Isaac Misiuk
Maine’s 1st district is solidly democratic. Chellie Pingree has held this seat since 2008 and has never had a truly competitive race. Issac Misiuk is the republican nominee, but he faces a very uphill battle here.
Rating – Safe D
ME-2 – Open seat race
Maine’s 2nd district covers the less democratic north of the state, and with Mike Michaud running for governor, the seat is open. The democratic primary pits two state senators, Troy Jackson and Emily Cain against each other. On the republican side, Kevin Raye goes up against Bruce Poliquin, a former state treasurer. This seat is mildly democratic leaning, which allows me to start this off with a democratic edge regardless of who emerges in the primary round.
Rating – Lean D
New Hampshire –
NH-1 – Carol Shea-Porter-inc vs ???
New Hampshire’s 1st district has turned over in 3 of the past 4 election cycles. As such, Carol Shea-Porter should be on her guard. The man she beat in 2012, the man who beat her in 2010, Frank Guinta, is back for the rubber match. However, he’ll have to get past UNH dean Dan Innis in the republican primary first. This is an even PVI district, so naturally you’d think toss up and I definitely am thinking that way as well. The key to this race is to watch the national mood, New Hampshire is prone to wild swings in voter behavior in wave elections.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D
NH-2 – Annie Kuster-inc vs ???
The 2nd district, much like the first, has an incumbent who lost in 2010 but won in 2012. Annie Kuster’s biggest advantage over her democratic colleague is that the 2nd is more democratic than the 1st, so she should be harder to beat assuming she doesn’t make an unforced error. The republican primary is a battle between Marilinda Garcia and Gary Lambert. Whoever wins that will have an uphill battle against Kuster, mostly because of PVI but also money disadvantage. Kuster has a cool $1.37 million in the bank at present, whereas Garcia has just $59k. Lambert is better off at $260k, but that’s still a big deficit.
Rating – Lean D
Vermont –
VT-1 – Peter Welch vs nobody
Peter Welch is running unopposed, so he will return to Congress next session.
Rating – Safe D
Massachusetts –
MA-1 – Richard Neal-inc vs nobody
It appears that Richard Neal is running unopposed, so he’ll be returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
MA-2 – Jim McGovern-inc vs nobody
Like comrade Richard Neal, Jim McGovern is also unopposed. He’ll be returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
MA-3 – Niki Tsongas-inc vs nobody
Niki Tsongas is also unopposed. What is this a bad joke?
Rating – Safe D
MA-4 – Joseph Kennedy-inc vs nobody
Joseph Kennedy III, like the three before him, is running unopposed. He’ll also be returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
MA-5 – Katherine Clark-inc vs nobody
I guess the GOP doesn’t feel like contesting House seats in Massachusetts this cycle. Damn.
Rating – Safe D
MA-6 – John Tierney-inc vs Richard Tisei
Now finally we get to a race of some substance. John Tierney was picked by many to lose last cycle because he had a strong republican challenger in state senator Richard Tisei, and that he was also connected to some unsavory business involving his wife. But Tierney was able to hang on by a very slim margin. Tisei is back for another go, but after fumbling away his chance last cycle (possibly a fumble caused by a terrible ad he ran in the campaign’s final week), and with Tierney’s ethical issues moving further from public consciousness, I think he’s dependent on a good year nationally for the GOP. Right now I give Tierney the edge. There is a slight chance Tierney could get beaten in the primary round, as three democrats are running against him, most notably businessman Seth Moulton who will be running to Tierney’s right. Even if Moulton knocks Tierney off, I don’t see how that makes Tisei’s situation any easier.
Rating – Lean D
MA-7 – Michael Capuano-inc vs nobody
Another uncontested district? Yawn. Next.
Rating – Safe D
MA-8 – Stephen Lynch-inc vs nobody
Yet another uncontested district. This is like a sports league with ties and no playoffs. My job’s getting easier already.
Rating – Safe D
MA-9 – William Keating-inc vs ???
This seat covers Cape Cod and the southeastern part of Massachusetts. Keating won his race in 2012 by a solid 25% margin. Oddly enough, four GOPers are looking for the chance to face him. Former Romney campaign guy John Chapman and Plymouth County GOP chair Vincent Cogliano Jr are the most notable names in the GOP primary. That being said, either will need a hell of a campaign and a lot of help to have a chance against Keating.
Rating – Safe D
Rhode Island –
RI-1 – David Cicilline-inc vs ???
Democrat David Cicilline was mired in ethical trouble for much of last cycle, most of it related to the poor financial state of the city of Providence. Republican Brendan Doherty was seen as a strong challenger and many had this race a toss up, but Cicilline won by 12% on election night. This time around the GOP did not field a candidate, so Cicilline will be back in Congress.
Rating – Safe D
RI-2 – James Langevin-inc vs Rhue Reis
This is another hugely democratic district. While James Langevin does actually have to beat a GOP challenger in November unlike a lot of other New England democrats, that doesn’t mean he’s in any danger of losing.
Rating – Safe D
Connecticut –
CT-1 – John Larson-inc vs Matthew Corey
Connecticut’s first district is another democratic bastion. John Larson picked up nearly 70% of the vote last time around, and I don’t expect GOPer Matthew Corey to really push him much this cycle.
Rating – Safe D
CT-2 – Joe Courtney-inc vs nobody
Huh. Even Connecticut has districts with no republicans running.
Rating – Safe D
CT-3 – Rosa DeLauro-inc vs Steve Packard
Connecticut’s third district takes in most of the south central part of the state, and like districts 1 and 2, is very, very democratic. The incumbent is Rosa DeLauro, and she took nearly 75% of the vote last cycle. I cannot see any way in which she’d be in danger of losing this time.
Rating – Safe D
CT-4 – Jim Himes-inc vs ???
The fourth district is one of the wealthiest in the nation, taking in the southwest part of the state. Democrat Jim Himes took over this seat in 2008, giving team blue a sweep of all New England seats. The GOP has several interesting names in the primary here, including state representative John Shaban and former state senator and 2010 candidate Dan Debicella. It’s hard to see Himes losing here, but the GOP has some solid candidates just in case 2014 turns into a wave against democrats. The district is ancestrally republican as well but I feel that is starting to wear off.
Rating – Likely D
CT-5 – Elizabeth Esty-inc vs ???
This district in the northwest part of the state is the most republican in Connecticut, but still has a democratic PVI despite being somewhat ancestrally republican. Democrat Elizabeth Esty had a tough battle in 2012 against republican Andrew Roraback, defeating him by 3 points. Roraback declined a rematch, and as a result, the man he beat in the 2012 primary, Mark Greenberg, is the likely GOP nominee. Esty could definitely be vulnerable if there is a wave against democrats, but she’s more of a moderate than a liberal, so Greenberg may find it hard to campaign against her otherwise.
Rating – Lean D
Mid-Atlantic –
New York –
NY-1 – Tim Bishop-inc vs ???
Moving into New York now, we start on Long Island, where incumbent Tim Bishop has been somewhat embattled. He survived the 2010 wave by less than 1%, then won again by 5% last year. Naturally, the GOP is going hard after him again. 2012 primary candidate George Demos and state senator Lee Zeldin are the men going at it for the republican nomination. Whoever emerges will be up against an incumbent who is no stranger to tough campaigns. Bishop is doing well on the fundraising front with $722k in the bank, but Demos is at 1.22 million and Zeldin is at $411k as of April 1, so this will be a fair fight financially. The district is a swingy one to be sure. For now I see Bishop returning to Congress in a close one, just like the last 2 cycles.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D
NY-2 – Patricia Maher vs Peter King-inc
So far, we have 22 democrats in the House, and 0 republicans. That changes here. Peter King is one of the most popular republican incumbents in the whole nation. That explains how he won this district by 15+ last cycle even though Obama easily carried it. Patricia Maher is the democratic candidate, and she’s definitely a third tier selection. King shouldn’t have much trouble returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe R
NY-3 – Steve Israel-inc vs ???
Steve Israel is the head of the DCCC, which is odd in that you ordinarily don’t have somebody from a swing seat in a post like that. But like his adversary Peter King in neighboring NY-2, Steve Israel is a very popular incumbent. He won his race by 15% in 2012. His 2012 opponent Stephen Labate is back for a rematch, but he’ll have to get past Grant Lally in the GOP primary. Regarding, I don’t see either one beating Israel, who will have every national party resource behind him should the need arise.
Rating – Safe D
NY-4 – Open seat race
The fourth district is democratic-leaning but not overly so. Outgoing incumbent Carolyn McCarthy was a very strong political force but even she came within 7% of losing in 2010. The GOP is taking this open seat opportunity to have a chance at a pickup. 2012 candidate Francis Becker is back for another go, but he’ll have to defeat 3 other contenders in the primary, including Bruce Blakeman, who has the backing of some of New York’s minor parties. The democrats meanwhile got their top candidate in Nassau County district attorney Kathleen Rice. I feel like she will be very tough to beat in the general election.
Rating – Likely D
NY-5 – Gregory Meeks-inc vs nobody
Gregory Meeks has a primary challenger, but no republican opposition, so this seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D
NY-6 – Grace Meng-inc vs nobody
Grace Meng doesn’t have any opposition period, so she will return to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
NY-7 – Nydia Velazquez-inc vs Jose Luis Fernandez
This heavily Hispanic district is very solidly democratic. Longtime incumbent Nydia Velaz quez won’t have any trouble with re-election.
Rating – Safe D
NY-8 – Hakeem Jeffries-inc vs ???
The GOP isn’t putting up any opposition in the 8th, so Jeffries only has to deal with minor party opposition. He will be returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
NY-9 – Yvette Clark-inc vs ???
Just like the 8th district, the 9th doesn’t feature any GOP opposition, just minor parties. Yvette Clark will be going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
NY-10 – Jerrold Nadler-inc vs ???
As with the 8th and 9th districts, Jerrold Nadler won’t be facing a republican in November, only minor party candidates. He’ll be returning to his seat after November.
Rating – Safe D
NY-11 – Domenic Recchia vs Michael Grimm-inc
Now here’s a race that really is crazy. This district covers all of Staten Island and a small bit of Brooklyn. Michael Grimm is the republican incumbent, and he’s never been comfortable in his chair due to a swarm of ethical issues since the beginning of his tenure. He defeated his democratic opponent by 5% even though Obama won the district in 2012, which was a strong performance. Nevertheless, democrats are going hard after him, and the likely democratic candidate is Brooklyn City Councilman Domenic Recchia. He will likely be better funded and more organized than 2012 dem candidate Mark Murphy was. The optics looked decent for Grimm up until late April, when he was indicted and then taken into custody over ethically tainted business dealings. I now have to conclude that this seat, whether or not Grimm does stand for re-election or is replaced with another republican, will go blue in November.
Rating – Lean D (1st Dem pickup, D+1 overall)
NY-12 – Carolyn Maloney-inc vs Nick DiIorio
Carolyn Maloney got over 70% in her last contest in this district, which includes parts of Queens and Manhattan. Republican Nick DiIorio is running against her, but will get pounded.
Rating – Safe D
NY-13 – Charles Rangel-inc vs ???
Beleaguered democrat Charles Rangel has had the stench of ethical trouble around him for what seems like forever. There are three democrats running in the primary trying to take him out, the most noteworthy candidate being state senator Adriano Espaillat. The republicans aren’t putting up a candidate in this hugely blue district, so whoever emerges from the Dem primary will win the seat.
Rating – Safe D
NY-14 – Joseph Crowley-inc vs ???
Joseph Crowley, like many other NYC area dems, doesn’t have any republican opposition for the general election, just minor party stuff to deal with. He’ll be back in the next session.
Rating – Safe D
NY-15 – Jose Serrano-inc vs ???
Heading into the Bronx now, we stumble upon the most democratic district in the nation by PVI. Jose Serrano is only facing minor party opposition, so he is a shoo-in for re-election.
Rating – Safe D
NY-16 – Eliot Engel-inc vs ???
The last of the NYC-area districts, Engel is safe here. He’s only facing minor party opposition.
Rating – Safe D
NY-17 – Nita Lowey-inc vs ???
This district in Westchester County is pretty solidly democratic, going for Obama by 15 points in 2012. Nita Lowey won by 27 points in 2012, and the republican opposition isn’t great. 2012 primary candidate Francis Morganthaler is up against Some Dude Chris Day in the GOP primary. I can’t see either one making this one competitive.
Rating – Safe D
NY-18 – Sean Maloney-inc vs ???
This district in the lower Hudson valley gave us one of the shocks of Election Night 2012 when Sean Maloney upset Nan Hayworth in this marginally republican seat. (It has an R+ PVI even though Obama carried it narrowly). Hayworth is running to get her seat back, which ensures that this will be a fight, assuming Hayworth beats Andre Barnett in the GOP primary. In terms of fundraising, Maloney has been superb, and has $1.46 million in the bank right now. Undeterred, Hayworth clocks in with $663k. This is going to be a real battle. Right now I say Maloney holds the seat, but this is a toughie.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D
NY-19 – Sean Eldridge vs Christopher Gibson-inc
This seat in the central Hudson valley region is home to one of the few republicans sitting in a seat with a democratic PVI. Chris Gibson won this seat in the wave of 2010, and held it by 5% in 2012 over democrat Julian Schriebman. But the thing I always say is, if you win with a plurality, you’re not safe. Democrat Sean Eldridge is going after Gibson, and is uncontested in the Dem primary. He’s a self-funder and has plenty of cash, but detractors would point to his lack of experience and touch with average voters. Regardless, any time you are a democrat running against a republican in a D+ district and you’re sitting with more cash on hand than your opponent ($1.58 million to 1.23 million), you’re in good shape. Gibson won’t be the easiest of incumbents to knock off, but I think Eldridge is up for the challenge.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (2nd Dem pickup, D+2 overall)
NY-20 – Paul Tonko-inc vs Jim Fischer
The Albany-based 20th went for Obama by 20 points, and Paul Tonko has been an entrenched incumbent for some time now. Republican Jim Fischer is going after Tonko, but he’s going to have to run a monster of a race and get some breaks in order to make it competitive.
Rating – Safe D
NY-21 – Open seat race
Finally we get to an open seat! This seat went surprisingly open when Bill Owens decided to hang it up. That set off what appears to be a wild developing race. In terms of PVI the 21st is almost an instant replay of the 19th, going for Obama by 6 points. Despite that, the district is very republican at the local level and Dems don’t have a great bench here. Filmmaker Aaron Woolf is the standard bearer. On the republican side, 2012 candidate Matt Doheny is back for another go, but he’ll have to get past businesswoman Elise Stefanik in the primary first. Doheny has name recognition but also loser stench from his previous defeats. Doheny has $516k in the bank to Stefanik’s $351k…Woolf has $403k. Everything about this contest screams toss up and I tend to agree. Right now I see Stefanik as the more dangerous candidate, if she wins the GOP primary she probably wins in November. Doheny would be more easily beaten, but Woolf will have to prove himself either way. I’m hedging to see who wins the GOP primary, but right now I say they pick it up.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R (1st GOP pickup, D+1 overall)
NY-22 – nobody vs Richard Hanna-inc
Somebody please explain to me how, in a district that Obama came within half a percentage point of carrying, that Team Blue failed to put up a single candidate?? FAIL.
Rating – Safe R
NY-23 – Martha Robertson vs Tom Reed-inc
If NY-18 was the shocker win of the night in 2012, it was only because this district fell short. Tom Reed, the republican incumbent, was considered safe by most observers, but was only able to beat democrat Nate Shinagawa by 3%. Now democrats sense an opening, and Tompkins County Legislative Chair Martha Robertson is ready to take Reed on. Robertson has a good profile and is fundraising very well, sitting with $814k in the bank, just behind Reed’s $1.07 million. The district leans slightly republican, as Mitt Romney carried it by 1%. What we have to ask ourselves is do we consider Reed to be a weak incumbent based on his small winning margin in 2012, or was that an aberration. I used to think it was the latter, but maybe not. Either way, Robertson is very capable, and this race will be one to watch.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R
NY-24 – Dan Maffei-inc vs John Katko
The Syracuse-based 24th saw a major upset in 2010 when Ann Marie Buerkle knocked off incumbent Dan Maffei. Maffei went to reclaim his seat and did so in 2012 by 5%, the winning margin looking closer than it really was because of a green party candidate getting 8%. Obama won here by 16%, so this isn’t exactly fertile territory for the GOP. Some Dude John Katko will try to replicate Buerkle’s success in 2010, but even if you believe Maffei isn’t a particularly strong incumbent, it’d be a stretch to call this a pickup opportunity.
Rating – Likely D
NY-25 – Louise Slaughter-inc vs Mark Assini
The Rochester-based 25th went for Obama by 19 points, and Louise Slaughter held off Republican Maggie Brooks by 12 last time around. Mark Assini is the republican challenger. He’s got a lot of work to do to make it to Capitol Hill.
Rating – Safe D
NY-26 – Brian Higgins-inc vs Kathy Weppner
Higgins is a longtime incumbent, and this district centered on Buffalo & Niagara Falls is very solidly democratic. I’m sure Higgins wishes he could’ve given some of those democratic voters to fallen democrat Kathy Hochul, who lost narrowly in 2012 in the neighboring 27th because the court drawn map turned the 27th into a GOP vote sink. Kathy Weppner is the GOP candidate, but I don’t see her having much of a shot against Higgins.
Rating – Safe D
NY-27 – Jim O’Donnell vs Chris Collins-inc
Collins sits in the most GOP district in New York, and he needed every last GOP voter he could find to defeat Kathy Hochul in 2012. Jim O’Donnell is running for the democrats, but if a strong incumbent like Hochul couldn’t win here, I’m not sure how an underfunded challenger can.
Rating – Safe R
New Jersey –
NJ-1 – Open seat race
Heading into the Garden state, the 1st is centered on Camden and the Philly burbs. It’s pretty solidly blue, so the three men in the democratic primary are running for what essentially means victory in November. State senator Donald Norcross is the likely standard bearer, though Frank Minor and Frank Broomell will try to knock him off. On the republican side, Lee Lucas, Garry Cobb, and Claire Gustafson are running for nomination.
Rating – Safe D
NJ-2 - ??? vs Frank LoBiondo-inc
The 2nd district covers much of south Jersey. Frank LoBiondo is one of the few republicans nationally sitting in a D+ district in terms of PVI, but he is a very strong incumbent. He won with 58% of the vote in 2012 while Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by a 53-45 count. But the thing is, he’s never really had a competitive race within the last decade. That’s about to change. Lawyer Bill Hughes Jr, son of former representative Bill Hughes, is in the race. He’ll have to beat Dave Cole in the democratic primary but that should be a formality. Hughes has been a fairly strong fundraiser, and has 328k in the bank, but that pales to LoBiondo’s 1.27 million. At this point I have to conclude that LoBiondo has the edge, but this will be a very interesting campaign to watch given LoBiondo’s rustiness.
Rating – Lean R
NJ-3 – Open seat race
New Jersey’s 3rd district is one of the most evenly divided in the country, going for Obama by 5% in 2012. Incumbent Jon Runyan shocked everybody by not running for re-election, setting off a big open seat contest. The republican primary pits former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan against businessman and philanthropist Tom McArthur. For the democrats, businessman Howard Kleinhandler, former Lt Gov candidate Bruce Todd, and American Cancer Society executive Aimee Belgard are in the mix. Of all the candidates, Belgard is doing the best in fundraising, with 326k in the bank, Lonegan is next with 172k. (McArthur actually has 1.9 million in the bank but all of that was self-funded). I don’t think I can call this anything but toss up at this point, and doggone it, I’m saying the democrats pick it up, particularly if Belgard is the one to emerge from the primary.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (3rd Dem pickup, D+2 overall)
NJ-4 – Ruben Scolavino vs Chris Smith-inc
This is a district that oddly enough, was competitive about 10-15 years ago as I believe Al Gore carried it in 2000. Times have changed though, and Barack Obama lost here by 10 points to Mitt Romney. Chris Smith is the republican incumbent and he seems pretty solidly entrenched. Ruben Scolavino will try his hand at defeating him, but good luck.
Rating – Safe R
NJ-5 - ??? vs Scott Garrett-inc
Scott Garrett is one of the more odious House republicans from the northeast, and given that he sits in a seat that went marginally for Romney (51-48), perhaps democrats see this as a sleeper opportunity for a pickup. Two democrats, Diane Sare and Roy Cho, are battling it out for the right to face Garrett. Cho, to his credit is fundraising very well, having a solid 332k in the bank as of April 1. Garrett has a monstrous 2.9 million warchest to sit on however. Given the PVI and given that the democratic opposition looks at least somewhat credible, this could be one to keep an eye on.
Rating – Likely R
NJ-6 – Frank Pallone-inc vs Anthony Wilkinson
The 6th district is a very democratic district at 61% Obama. Frank Pallone actually had a bit of a scare here in the wave of 2010, but is otherwise very entrenched. The republican candidate is Some Dude Anthony Wilkinson. I don’t see him putting up much of a fight.
Rating – Safe D
NJ-7 – Janice Kovach vs Leonard Lance-inc
The 7th district became more republican in redistricting last cycle, going to a district that Mitt Romney won 52-46. Leonard Lance has a reputation for being one of the more moderate republicans in the House. Whether or not that’s deserved is up for debate, but we’ll discuss in another time and place. The democratic candidate here is Janice Kovach, who happens to be the mayor of Clinton. She seems like she has a good political profile, but her fundraising has been awful at just 18k in the bank. Unless that improves drastically I can’t see Lance being threatened very much.
Rating – Safe R
NJ-8 – Albio Sires-inc vs Anthony Tiscornia
Moving into northeast Jersey now, the 8th is hugely democratic. Anthony Tiscornia is running for the republicans here but Sires will crush him in November.
Rating – Safe D
NJ-9 – Bill Pascrell-inc vs Dierdre Paul
Another solidly democratic district, Bill Pascrell should have no trouble holding his seat against Some Dudette Dierdre Paul.
Rating – Safe D
NJ-10 – Donald Payne-inc vs Yolanda Dentley
This is one of the most democratic districts in the country. The only shock here is that the republicans actually have a candidate. Safe.
Rating – Safe D
NJ-11 - ??? vs Rodney Frelinghuysen-inc
The 11th district is a pinkish-red seat that Mitt Romney won by a 52-46 count in 2012. Rodney Frelinghuysen is the longtime incumbent, and he should be fine to win another term. 3 democrats, Anne Brogowski, Brian Murphy, and Mark Dunec are all battling for the chance to face Frelinghuysen in November. Dunec has actually raised 109k so far, but he’ll need to do better to threaten the incumbent’s hold on this seat.
Rating – Safe R
NJ-12 – Open seat race
Rush holt, the congressman perhaps best known for beating IBM Watson at Jeopardy, is retiring, so we have an open seat in this solidly blue district. Four democrats, Bonnie Coleman, Linda Greenstein, Andrew Zwicker, and 2012 NJ-7 candidate Upendra Chivukula are all running for nomination. The republican candidate is Alieta Eck. Eck will have a very uphill race to deal with no matter who emerges from the Dem primary.
Rating – Safe D
Pennsylvania –
PA-1 – Robert Brady-inc vs Megan Rath
Moving into Pennsylvania now, we start in the Philadelphia-based 1st district. At 83% Obama, there’s no way Robert Brady is losing this seat.
Rating – Safe D
PA-2 – Chaka Fattah-inc vs Armond James
The 2nd district is also in Philly, and its 90% Obama. The biggest surprise here is that the GOP is actually fielding a candidate. Godspeed Armond James, maybe you’ll get north of 10% against Fattah!
Rating – Safe D
PA-3 - ??? vs Mike Kelly-inc
The third district snakes from Erie down toward Pittsburgh. Mike Kelly won this seat in the wave of 2010, which republicans then made redder in the redistricting. Mitt Romney won here 55-43, so it’s hard to see democrats winning this outside of a massive blue wave year. Democrats Dan LaVallee and Mel Marin are going at it in the primary to see who will get to take on Kelly. Neither recruit is top tier, so I don’t see this being much of a contest.
Rating – Safe R
PA-4 – Linda Thompson vs Scott Perry-inc
The fourth is one of the most republican districts in Pennsylvania, as Barack Obama won just 41% here. Democrat Linda Thompson is running against incumbent Scott Perry, but her task is immense.
Rating – Safe R
PA-5 - ??? vs Glenn Thompson-inc
The fifth district takes in much of the north central portion of Pennsylvania. It’s a reliably republican area, so incumbent Glenn Thompson shouldn’t have too much to worry about. Two democrats are running in the primary and they both have interesting profiles. Thomas Tarantella is a decorated army veteran who served for 22 years, and Kerith Taylor is president of the Brookville school board. I don’t know that either can make much of a dent in such a red district, but these are the types of candidates I wish we had running in other nearby districts, like, I dunno, NY-22.
Rating – Safe R
PA-6 – Manan Trivedi vs Ryan Costello-inc
We move into suburban Philadelphia now, which used to be solidly republican years ago but has trended democratic within the past 2 decades. It’s still republican at the congressional level due to gerrymandering. Barack Obama won this district in 2008, but lost to Romney by 2.5% in 2012. The democratic candidate is Manan Trivedi, a physician who has run twice before but lost. The republican incumbent, Ryan Costello, is a freshman who only has 305k in the bank, so this could be a seat of opportunity. For now though I’m giving him the edge.
Rating – Lean R
PA-7 – Mary Balchunis vs Patrick Meehan-inc
This is Pennsylvania honey badger Joe Sestak’s old seat, though looking at a map I’m not sure he’d recognize it because it’s ugly as sin. Mitt Romney won here by a 50-48 count, so it’s definitely competitive in most years. Unfortunately, this is a seat where democrats pretty much struck out in recruiting. Some Dudette Mary Balchunis is the democratic candidate, and she’s going up against a fairly popular incumbent in Patrick Meehan. The republican brand in Pennsylvania is seriously damaged at the moment, but unless Balchunis can kick her fundraising and campaign into high gear, I’m skeptical that this one will change hands.
Rating – Likely R
PA-8 - ??? vs Mike Fitzpatrick-inc
This might be the hottest race in Pennsylvania this fall. Republican Mike Fitzpatrick has been a fairly solid incumbent thus far, collecting 56% of the vote in 2012. The presidential vote was decided by a few hundred votes, with Romney beating Obama 49.4 to 49.3. The democrats are trying hard to oust Fitzpatrick, and two fairly strong candidates, Kevin Strouse and Shaughnessy Naughton, are looking to earn the right to face him in November. Strouse is a former army ranger and CIA operative, while Naughton is a businesswoman and scientist. Thus far Strouse has done better than Naughton in the fundraising game, leading 564k to 208k, while Fitzpatrick has a crazy 1.47 million in the bank. This is a contest that will likely be interesting regardless of who wins the Dem primary, but Fitzpatrick has the edge for now.
Rating – Lean R
PA-9 – Alanna Hartzok vs Bill Shuster-inc
This district in the Appalachians is the most red in all of PA, so Bill Shuster shouldn’t have much trouble winning a general election. I say general because he’s got a tough primary opponent to deal with first, that being former coast guard captain and businessman Art Halvorson. Alanna Hartzok is the democratic candidate, but unless she’s the next Jim Matheson or John Barrow, I can’t see her doing much here even if Halvorson were to knock off Shuster in the republican primary.
Rating – Safe R
PA-10 – Scott Brion vs Tom Marino-inc
This district is 60% Romney, so I can’t see Marino having much trouble winning. I wish godspeed to democrat Scott Brion, who will try his luck anyway.
Rating – Safe R
PA-11 – Andy Ostrowski vs Lou Barletta-inc
Lou Barletta has a reputation of being a weak incumbent, fair or not. But at R+6, this is a district about as far out politically that democrats can reasonably contest. Civil rights lawyer Andy Ostrowski is running against Barletta, but I’m not seeing anything about him that suggests that Barletta is going to be fearful of losing.
Rating – Safe R
PA-12 - ??? vs Keith Rothfus-inc
One of the negative surprises of the night for democrats in 2012 came in this district in SW PA, as Mark Critz was defeated by Keith Rothfus. To be fair, this is a seat that has been zooming to the right for some time now. At just 41% Obama, its not likely to go blue again anytime soon. Nevertheless, psychologist Erin McClelland and John Hugya, Jack Murtha’s former chief of staff, will battle it out in the primary for the right to take on Rothfus in November. I don’t see this one ending well.
Rating – Safe R
PA-13 – Open seat race
Allyson Schwartz’s decision to run for governor caused this seat to be open, and it has set off one of the craziest Dem primaries of this election cycle. Four democrats, state representative Brendan Boyle, state senator Daylin Leach, anesthesiologist & health care activist Valerie Arkoosh, and former representative Marjorie Margolies are all hoping to get the checkmark by their name on primary night. The republican primary is between Some Dudes Carson Adcock and Beverly Plosa-Bowser. With apologies to a certain king of the koopas, I don’t see the republicans winning here, regardless of who emerges from the primary round.
Rating – Safe D
PA-14 – Mike Doyle vs nobody
Mike Doyle’s Pittsburgh area seat is uncontested, so he’ll be heading back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
PA-15 – nobody vs Charlie Dent-inc
Are you freaking kidding me? No democrat filed to face Charlie Dent in this district that Obama lost by just 3%?? I hope they’re all waiting for Dent to step aside or something because of his strength, because he is a very popular incumbent. Still, you can’t leave R+3 districts uncontested if you want the majority.
Rating – Safe R
PA-16 - ??? vs Joe Pitts-inc
This York-Lancaster based seat is one that is moving pretty heavily toward democrats, or at least was prior to the 2010 wave and may have stagnated since then. At R+5, its at least in the ballpark of what is competitive, and republican Joe Pitts hasn’t had a competitive general election in a while. Former state representative Tom Houghton is the likely democratic candidate. His profile seems pretty strong, but I don’t have any fundraising data on him, which likely means he’s struggling. This one has some shock potential, but only if Pitts does a poor job on the campaign trail and Houghton does great.
Rating – Likely R
PA-17 – Matt Cartwright-inc vs ???
The crazy thing about this NE PA gerrymander is that it was intended to be a democratic vote sink, but in reality the PVI is only about D+4. The PA GOP could have tried to go 14-4 instead of 13-5 and busted this district up but it would’ve made a few of their other incumbents vulnerable. Democrat Matt Cartwright knocked off longtime representative Tim Holden in the primary and then won the general election with 60% of the vote. Three republicans, Matt Connolly, Matt Dietz, and David Moylan, are running for the right to face Cartwright, but all three are pretty weak honestly.
Rating – Safe D
PA-18 – nobody vs Tim Murphy
This solidly red district in SW PA is going uncontested, so Tim Murphy will return to Congress.
Rating – Safe R
Delaware –
DE-1 – John Carney-inc vs nobody
Does anybody remember when GOP representative Mike Castle held this seat? The GOP isn’t even putting up a candidate this year. I love witches.
Rating – Safe D
Maryland –
MD-1 – ??? vs Andy Harris-inc
Moving into the crab state now, and we start on the Eastern Shore. Republican Andy Harris is a whackjob, and he’s the only republican representative from this state. At 60% Romney, he’s safe. Oddly enough, 2012 candidate John LaFerla is running again, and he’ll have to get past Bill Tilghman in the democratic primary to get to the general. Fundraising wise both candidates are around 144k, which is better than what you normally see in a dark red district for dems. Not sure why all the action in the Dem primary, because Harris will cruise in November.
Rating – Safe R
MD-2 – Dutch Ruppersburger-inc vs David Banach
Obama carried this district by 28 points, so I can’t see Ruppersburger having much difficulty. Some Dude David Banach is running for the republicans, but he’s not winning.
Rating – Safe D
MD-3 – John Sarbanes-inc vs ???
The third district is slightly less democratic at 61% Obama, but its still bright blue if not dark blue. Three republicans, Thomas Harris, Michael Jackson (egads), and Charles Long are running for the right to face Sarbanes in November. None of the three are fundraising worth a lick though, so this has the makings of an easy re-election.
Rating – Safe D
MD-4 – Donna Edwards-inc vs ???
At 78% Obama, this is the most democratic district in Maryland. I can’t seem to figure out why there are 4, yes 4 republicans battling for the right to take on Donna Edwards. Their reward for winning the primary will be something like what Jafar had for Aladdin coming out of the Cave of Wonders with the lamp.
Rating – Safe D
MD-5 – Steny Hoyer-inc vs ???
What, three republicans battling for the right to take on Steny Hoyer? What’s with Maryland republicans and clown car primaries in solidly blue districts? Weird.
Rating – Safe D
MD-6 – John Delaney-inc vs ???
The 6th district is the only real “swing” district in Maryland, but I put that in quotation marks since Obama won here by 13 points, making it D+5 or thereabout. 2012 republican senate candidate Dan Bongino is running here, as is Some Dude Harold Painter. Bongino has almost no money in the bank though, so I don’t see a very competitive campaign happening here.
Rating – Safe D
MD-7 – Elijah Cummings-inc vs ???
This is yet another solidly blue district, so Cummings will have no trouble winning re-election.
Rating – Safe D
MD-8 – Chris Van Hollen-inc vs Dave Wallace
At least there’s only 1 republican foolish enough to take on Chris Van Hollen in this, the last district in the northeast region.
Rating – Safe D
Northeast Region Current Totals:
Safe D – 50 seats
Likely D – 3 seats
Lean D – 5 seats
Toss Up/Tilt D – 5 seats
Toss Up/Tilt R – 2 seats
Lean R – 3 seats
Likely R – 3 seats
Safe R – 16 seats
Total DEM Seats – 63 seats
Total GOP Seats – 24 seats
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