Hi DK Election Nation.
If it's me, you know we're about to travel through another region in my House baseline ratings. But today isn't any ordinary diary, for today I have a super amazing double feature for you guys and girls. The two smallest regions in terms of seats, the Central Plains and the Rocky Mountains, have been combined into one diary.
We have a lot of ground to cover, so without further ado...
Region 8 – The Central Plains
Our trip around the country now takes us to the Central Plains region. This region is made of the states of Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. On balance, this is a reliably republican region, and it has the potential to be one of Team Blue’s worst in 2012 relative to 2010 thanks to both redistricting and retirements. But there are opportunities to be had here as well.
First of course, a look back at the other regions and where we stand:
Northeast Region:
Democrats pick up NH-1, NH-2, NY-24, lose 1 seat in redistricting in MA
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – Democrats +2.5
Mid-Atlantic Region:
Democrats pick up NJ-3, MD-6, lose 2 seats in redistricting, one in PA, one in NJ
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – Democrats +1
Upper South Region:
Democrats pick up no seats
Republicans pick up NC-8, NC-11, NC-13
Swing – Republicans +3
South Atlantic Region:
Democrats pick up FL-18, win new seats in FL-9 and FL-22
Republicans pick up no seats, win new seats in SC-7 and GA-14
Swing – Democrats +1
Eastern Great Lakes Region:
Democrats pick up OH-16, MI-1, MI-11, lose 1 seat in redistricting in MI
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – Democrats +2.5
Gulf Coast Region:
Democrats pick up no seats
Republicans pick up no seats, lose 1 seat in redistricting in LA
Swing – Democrats +.5
Western Great Lakes Region:
Democrats pick up IL-8, IL-10, IL-11, IL-16, MN-8
Republicans pick up no seats, lose 1 seat in redistricting in IL
Swing – Democrats +5.5
National Swing after 7 regions - Democrats +10
IA-1 – The independent mappers in Iowa basically drew district lines in the four cardinal directions, making the first district a northeastern Iowa seat. Bruce Braley is the representative for the democrats, and he’s facing a rematch from 2010 GOP candidate Ben Lange. Lange is struggling in fundraising though, and Braley has over a million on hand. Given the district’s D+5 lean plus the money situation, I can’t see this seat turning over.
Rating – Safe D
IA-2 – The 2nd is a southeastern Iowa seat based in Iowa City. Dave Loebsack is the representative, a survivor of a tough contest against Marianette Miller Meeks in 2010. MMM is out this time around, and the GOP candidate is John Archer, a businessman. He’s raised 326k so far but only has 60k left over from the primary round. Loebsack holds about 800k on hand right now, so he’s starting from a fairly strong position.
Rating – Likely Democratic
IA-3 – This is one of the rare incumbent versus incumbent matchups in the November general election. Republican Tom Latham saw his seat disappear in redistricting, so he moved to run here, a district that runs from Des Moines westward to the state border. Politically, it is about even, as Obama won 52-47 here in 2008. Democratic rep Leonard Boswell is the incumbent here. Name recognition should be pretty high here, but Boswell trails Latham by a huge amount in cash on hand, roughly 1.6 million to 400k. That warchest for Latham, plus his more astute campaigning ability, allows me to put this seat into the red column.
Rating – Leans Republican
Region Swing – Republicans +1
National Swing – Democrats +9
IA-4 – The last district in Iowa is in the northwest of the state. Steve King is the representative, and he’s a super right wing republican. That was okay when his district was only 44% Obama, but this new seat was only won by McCain 50-49 in 2008. King’s wingnutty goodness might be a real detriment here, especially considering the democrats got possibly their best recruit in the whole nation, former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack, to run against him. The cash on hand race is about tied, with King ahead by about 100k, out of about 2 million raised by each. This seat is likely to go for Romney but just barely, and you’d have to figure that there are republicans out there voting for the moderate Romney that won’t go for the arch-conservative King. It’ll be a tough campaign, but right now I like Vilsack to pick up the seat for Team Blue, barely.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Democratic
Region Swing – Even
National Swing – Democrats +10
Iowa Redistricting – Finally, we have a redistricting adjustment to make in Iowa, as the old IA-4, a red seat, disappeared in redistricting, giving the democrats another ½ seat gain.
Region Swing – Democrats +.5
National Swing – Democrats +10.5
MO-1 – This is a democratic vote sink around St Louis, and was the site of an incumbent v incumbent primary between Russ Carnahan and Lacy Clay. Clay won the primary, so he’s home free for re-election now.
Rating – Safe D
MO-2 – This pinkish-red seat in the St Louis suburbs went 53% for McCain in 2008. Todd Akin is running for the Senate, so the seat is open. Republican Ann Wagner has been rather impressive in terms of fundraising, raising 1.95 million this cycle and still holding over 500k after the primary round. Her democratic opposition is nominal.
Rating – Safe R
MO-3 – Blaine Luetkemeyer holds this rural eastern seat, which is very red. Democrat Eric Mayer is facing him, but has little to no chance of winning.
Rating – Safe R
MO-4 – This was Ike Skelton’s seat, and he was elusive to republicans for years until 2010, when he was replaced by wingnut Vicki Hartzler in the red wave. Hartzler is supposedly a weak incumbent but this seat is red, very red. But it isn’t as red as it used to be, as it moved from 38% Obama to 42% in redistricting, mostly due to Columbia being added. Oddly enough, the democrats landed a top tier challenger here in Cass County Prosecutor Teresa Hensley, who’s raised nearly 500k and holds 325k cash on hand. That’s a respectable total if it trails Hartzler by about 180k. Admittedly a republican would have to be a real nutjob to not be able to win here, but given its democratic ancestral past I can’t leave this off the board completely.
Rating – Likely Republican
MO-5 – Emanuel Cleaver, who holds this Kansas City-based seat, I’m still upset with for rallying legislators to pass the republican gerrymander map over governor Jay Nixon’s veto. That notwithstanding, he’s safe for re-election.
Rating – Safe D
MO-6 – Sam Graves holds this northern Missouri seat for the GOP, and he’s sitting in a fairly red bastion of conservatism. The democrats don’t have a strong challenger here either.
Rating – Safe R
MO-7 – This is the most republican district in Missouri, centered on Springfield and Joplin. Billy Long is the GOP rep here and he will win easily in November against democrat Jim Evans.
Rating – Safe R
MO-8 – Jo Ann Emerson is one of the more popular and entrenched incumbents in the country, and her district is very red to begin with. No democrat is winning here for a long, long time.
Rating – Safe R
Missouri Redistricting – This cycle saw the democrats lose a seat in Missouri, the one belonging to Russ Carnahan, so that’s a ½ seat pickup for Team Red.
Region Swing – Even
National Swing – Democrats +10
AR-1 – This district turned over in 2010 as republican Rick Crawford won. This was not long ago a democratic stronghold but like much of Arkansas it has cliff-dived to the right. Obama cratered here, getting just 39% in 2008. The democratic candidate is Scott Ellington, who was highly touted but his fundraising has been decidedly iffy at just 151k raised and 32k on hand, compared with 1 million raised and 588k on hand for Crawford. I know this area is ancestrally democratic, which is why I’m keeping it on the board for now, but I’m not sure how Ellington is supposed to win in such nationally red territory in a presidential year with such little cash.
Rating – Likely Republican
AR-2 – The Little Rock-based 2nd is probably Team Blue’s best chance on paper in AR, but no solid candidate stepped forward to face freshman GOP rep Tim Griffin. The candidate is Herb Rule, a largely cashless Some Dude. That’s a shame.
Rating – Safe R
AR-3 – This is the most republican district in Arkansas, centered on Fayetteville and Bentonville, home of Wal-Mart. Steve Womack is the republican rep, and he’s got nothing to worry about.
Rating – Safe R
AR-4 – This is Mike Ross’s seat, which was configured to keep him happy, then he bolted, making the seat open. There was a contested primary on the republican side here between 2010 candidate Beth Anne Rankin and businessman Tom Cotton. Cotton won the primary, and has since replenished his fundraising coffers, holding 340k on hand. On paper, the democrats landed a top notch recruit in state senator Gene Jeffress. However, his fundraising has been atrocious, he’s only raised 58k and holds just 13k on hand. Mike Ross, you’re a d-bag.
Rating – Safe R (republican pickup)
Region Swing – Republicans +1
National Swing – Democrats +9
OK-1 – The Tulsa-based 1st district was the site of a massive upset in the republican primary, as representative John Sullivan was taken out by Jim Bridenstine. In a less red district this action would have put the seat on the board, but this is Oklahoma. Democrat John Olson is in the race, but he’ll be clobbered.
Rating – Safe R
OK-2 – DINO Dan Boren is retiring, and this set off a set of congested primaries for the right to succeed him. This seat used to be democratic but has dropped off the proverbial cliff to the right. Obama got just 34% here. Race tracker hasn’t updated who the primary winners are, but all candidates were basically cashless after the primary round anyway, so this is basically a generic R vs generic D fight at the moment, which means the republican wins.
Rating – Safe R (republican pickup)
Region Swing – Republican +2
National Swing – Democrats +8
OK-3 – This western Oklahoma seat is one of the most republican in the nation. Republican Frank Lucas is safer than safe.
Rating – Safe R
OK-4 – Tom Cole inhabits this southern Oklahoma district. Its solidly red. No sweat for him.
Rating – Safe R
OK-5 – The Oklahoma City-based 5th is the only district in the state trending leftward, but even so it has a long way to go to be competitive. James Lankford is the GOP rep, and he should win easily over democrat Tom Guild in November.
Rating – Safe R
KS-1 – The “Big First” of Kansas is one of the most republican districts in the nation. Tim Huelskamp is unopposed.
Rating – Safe R
KS-2 – The Topeka-based 2nd became more democratic in redistricting thanks to Lawrence being dumped in. It’s now 45% Obama. This was also the seat that Nancy Boyda picked off for Team Blue in 2006, only to drop it to current GOP rep Lynn Jenkins 2 years later. Jenkins has been on a fundraising tear this cycle, raising 1.48 million and holding 1.08 million on hand. The democratic opposition doesn’t look good either, so a slight glimmer of hope is for naught this year.
Rating – Safe R
KS-3 – The 3rd is the most democratic district in Kansas, based in the suburbs of Kansas City. So why exactly is a 49% Obama district not being contested by the democrats? You tell me. It makes no sense. Kevin Yoder is home free for another cycle. Major fail on all accounts.
Rating – Safe R
KS-4 – Mike Pompeo is considered to be one of the biggest jerks in Congress, and he campaigned like a race-baiting bigot against Raj Goyle in 2010. But he’ll back for another term, in no short order due to the Wichita-based 4th’s very red hue, his strong fundraising, and the lack of much democratic opposition.
Rating – Safe R
NE-1 – The Lincoln-based 1st district got nominally more democratic in 2010 redistricting, but at R+11 its still way out of contention for democrats. Republican Jeff Fortenberry has nothing to worry about.
Rating – Safe R
NE-2 – Lee Terry had to gut out a really close race in 2008, but skated by in 2010, as his R+6 seat went from an electoral vote for Barack Obama to solidly red during the wave. He’s kept fundraising though, and has raised 1.38 million this cycle and holds almost 500k on hand. The democrats did find a decent challenger here in Douglas County Treasurer John Ewing. Ewing’s fundraising has been somewhat underwhelming though at 296k raised and just 91k on hand. He’s going to have to improve that quickly and campaign very well in order to win.
Rating – Likely Republican
NE-3 – Adrian Smith represents the rural west 3rd district, and its one of the most republican districts in the nation (pinch me if you haven’t read that earlier in this section…yeesh!). He’s good for another term.
Rating – Safe R
SD-1 – Kristi Noem has struggled since her win over Stephanie Herseth in 2010, and she’s relatively unpopular right now. The democrats put forth two surprisingly strong candidates, as Minnehaha County Commissioner Jeff Barth was beaten by businessman Matt Varilek for the chance to face off with Noem. Polling shows a surprisingly close battle right now.
Rating – Leans Republican
ND-1 – With Rick Berg seeking an early promotion to the Senate, this seat is open. The Republican candidate is Kevin Cramer, the state public service commissioner. Former state representative Pam Gulleson is the democratic candidate. There have been reports that polling is closer than was thought so far, and neither candidate is awash with cash or bankrupt, so this should be a spirited fight. Cramer has the edge due to PVI, but ND often bucks their political ways, as evidenced by the success democrats have had there in recent years.
Rating – Leans Republican
Region Roundup:
The Central Region is a real mess for the democrats. They have the possibility go backwards by as many as 3 seats, with only a real chance at a 1 seat gain if everything goes their way. Right now I have two pickups in Iowa canceling each other out, with Latham winning IA-3 and Vilsack winning IA-4. You have two seats being lost, one a red seat in Iowa, the other a blue seat in Missouri, so those also cancel. Then you have the democrats dropping the two open conservadem seats in AR-4 and OK-2, giving the R’s a 2 seat pickup in the Central Plains. That reduces the Democrats’ advantage in the national swing to just 8 seats with two regions left.
Region 9 – The Rocky Mountains
This is the 2nd to last region in our trip across the United States. It consists of the states of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and Idaho. Some of these states are solidly republican, but in the more purple and blue south part of the region, the democrats got some good redistricting help, so there is opportunity.
MT-1 – We lead off in Montana, where we have a doozy of a race. With Denny Rehberg going for the Senate and the seat open, you had congested primaries on both sides of the aisle. The republican primary winner is Steve Daines, a candidate for Lt Governor in 2008. The democratic nominee is Kim Gillan, the minority whip of the state senate. Both have pretty good political profiles, and the fundraising race is fairly close as well. I give Daines the edge so far because of the state’s PVI, but this certainly bears watching.
Rating – Leans Republican
WY-1 – Cynthia Lummis surprisingly had to fight for this seat in 2008 when it was open, but she’s since settled in. Chris Heinrichsen is the democrat running against her, but come on, its Wyoming.
Rating – Safe R
CO-1 – Moving into Colorado now, and we start in the Denver-based 1st district. Diana DeGette is the democratic rep here, and she’ll have no trouble against Denver County GOP chair Danny Stroud in November, as this district is 70+% Obama.
Rating – Safe D
CO-2 – The Boulder-based 2nd CD is also fairly democratic at 61% Obama, which actually is weaker than before redistricting. Jared Polis is the democrat, and he’s not up against much opposition. State senator Kevin Lundberg, the GOP candidate, looked strong on paper but his fundraising has been atrocious at just 78k raised and 14k on hand. That won’t get it done in a district this liberal.
Rating – Safe D
CO-3 – The western-range third CD could be interesting. Scott Tipton won this seat in a tight race with John Salazar in 2010, and he drew a tough challenger in State House Minority Leader Sal Pace. The 3rd CD leans republican at R+4, but McCain barely triumphed over Obama 50-49 in 2008, suggesting the topline vote will be very close again. Tipton to his credit has raised 1.62 million this cycle and holds 1.06 million on hand, but Pace has been no slouch in that department, he has 1.18 million raised and 790k on hand. This looks and feels like a toss up contest. Right now I give Tipton the slight edge via PVI and incumbency, but watch this one. If the national ballot moves even a little bit toward Team Blue, this is the kind of district that will fall.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Republican
CO-4 – The rural eastern 4th CD was previously held by democrat Betsy Markey, but she was wiped out by republican Cory Gardner in 2010. The district then became way more republican in redistricting, going to just 42% Obama. Not only that, Gardner has raised an impressive 1.79 million and holds about 1 million cash on hand. Undeterred, State Senate President Brandon Shaffer has given it a go anyways. He’s raised 551k and has about 280k in the bank right now, totals that I thought would be higher given his elected position. This seems like a longshot, but given Shaffer’s campaigning ability, its not impossible.
Rating – Likely Republican
CO-5 – The 5th CD centers on Colorado Springs, the effective GOP base in the state. Doug Lamborn is safe for another term.
Rating – Safe R
CO-6 – Mike Coffman had his world turned upside down when his safe GOP district was re-made into a suburban swing seat based in Aurora and Littleton. And perhaps in light of this, he caught some serious foot in mouth disease earlier this year, making a number of disparaging comments and refusing to talk to the media later. So despite his torrid fundraising (2.43 million raised and 1.43 million in the bank), he’s a weakened incumbent on a lot of unknown territory. His opponent, state representative Joe Mikloski, has a strong political profile and has raised 802k this cycle, holding 517k in the bank. That should be more than enough dough to effectively campaign against Coffman’s antics. This will be one to watch for sure, but I like Mikloski.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Democratic (democratic pickup)
Region Swing – Democrats +1
National Swing – Democrats +9
CO-7 – The final district is Colorado is based in Denver’s western suburban reaches. Ed Perlmutter is running on a lot of new territory, but it is 57% Obama territory. The republican candidate is Joe Coors Jr, a name that resonates in Colorado, but it is his first crack at elected office and he only holds 115k in the bank. Perlmutter on the flip side has raised 1.76 million this cycle and holds 1.07 million on hand. This is a bit of a longshot for the GOP.
Rating – Likely Democratic
NM-1 – The Albuquerque-based 1st district is a former swing district that has turned hugely in the democratic direction, as evidenced by the fact that it stayed blue in the 2010 red wave. With Martin Heinrich running for Senate, the seat is open. Michelle Lujan-Grisham is the democratic nominee, and while she had to spend a lot of funds on a contested primary, she is back up over 200k in the bank now. Janice Arnold-Jones is the republican nominee, and she’s been unimpressive thus far, holding just 70k in the bank. Given the blue PVI of the seat, I think Lujan-Grisham is in the driver’s seat.
Rating – Likely Democratic
NM-2 – The southern 2nd CD is the lone republican district in the state. Steve Pearce won this seat back in 2010 following his ill-fated Senate run in 2008. He’s sitting on a nice pile of cash at roughly 800k. The democratic candidate is Evelyn Erhard, a little-known and fairly cashless democrat. Right now I don’t see much action happening here.
Rating – Safe R
NM-3 – Ben Lujan holds the northern 3rd district, which is fairly democratic at D+7. His opponent is a cashless Some Dude by the name of Jeff Byrd. Lujan is safe.
Rating – Safe D
AZ-1 – This district covers much of the northern high desert of Arizona. McCain carried this seat by 51-48 in 2008, but those numbers are likely inflated due to the home state effect. Ann Kirkpatrick, the former democratic representative before she was beaten in 2010, is back for another run. She’s fundraised like a demon, raising 1.35 million this cycle and holds 812k on hand. By comparison, the republicans looking to take her on are largely cashless and without name recognition, except for 2010 AZ-8 primary candidate Jonathan Paton. He’ll have to get past fundraising leads Gaither Martin in the primary. At this point Kirkpatrick looks to be the favorite.
Rating – Leans Democratic (democratic pickup)
Region Swing – Democrats +2
National Swing – Democrats +10
AZ-2 – Democrat Ron Barber won this year’s special election to succeed Gabrielle Giffords, and he appears to be in the driver’s seat here as his biggest competition, two-time loser Jesse Kelly, is out for the November general election. The favorite to win the republican primary is Martha McSally, a political novice. Barber only has about 200k on hand following the special election, but that’s still more than McSally, and this seat got more democratic in redistricting, going to 49% Obama, so Obama will likely win it this year without the McCain home state effect.
Rating – Likely Democratic
AZ-3 – Raul Grijalva had to sweat out a surprisingly close race in 2010, but he doesn’t have much to worry about this time around.
Rating – Safe D
AZ-4 – Paul Gosar moved over from the 1st district to the 4th, which runs through the northeast of the state into the northeast exurbs of Phoenix. He’ll have to get by a primary challenge from Paul Babeu, a race that could be intriguing. Regardless of who wins though, democrat Walter Williamson has little chance of threading the needle in this R+13 district.
Rating – Safe R
AZ-5 – This district is Phoenix’s far eastern suburbs and exurbs, and is the most republican district in Arizona. The seat is open from Jeff Flake’s departure, but its staying red.
Rating – Safe R
AZ-6 – This northeastern Phoenix suburban/exurban district is another red bastion at R+10. This is the site of an intra-party primary battle between Ben Quayle and David Schweikert. Whoever wins this battle will almost certainly win the seat.
Rating – Safe R
AZ-7 – This district is centered on Phoenix’s downtown and inner ring. Ed Pastor is the democrat, and he is unopposed.
Rating – Safe D
AZ-8 – Phoenix’s northwestern suburbs and exurbs are contained in this district, which is very solidly republican. Whoever emerges from the republican primary here will win in November.
Rating – Safe R
AZ-9 – This is the newly created seat east of Phoenix, which stretches from Chandler and Mesa through Tempe. The seat is marginally democratic, which enraged the republican legislature to the point that they impeached Colleen Mathis, the independent on the redistricting commission. The democratic primary is a battle between Arizona Democratic Party chair Andrei Cherny and state Senator Kyrsten Sinema. State Senate Minority Leader David Schapira is also in the race but he’s a decided underdog. The republican primary boils down between 2010 State Senate candidate Wendy Rogers and businessman Martin Sepulveda. The democrats, especially Cherny and Sinema, have done much better on the fundraising front and have better political profiles, so whoever wins there will have a big edge going into the general election.
Rating – Likely Democratic (new seat pickup)
Region Swing – Democrats +2.5
National Swing – Democrats +10.5
UT-1 – Heading into the Beehive State, we run smack into a hornet’s nest of conservatism. Bob Bishop is safe in this R+25 enclave.
Rating – Safe R
UT-2 – This is a newly-created district in the western half of the state. At R+15, it’s a pretty solidly republican seat. There were no fewer than 10 republicans vying for the primary nod, and it was won by Chris Stewart. Democrat Jay Seegmiller is in the race trying to knock him off, but its going to be very tough sledding.
Rating – Safe R (new district pickup)
Region Swing – Democrats +2
National Swing – Democrats +10
UT-3 – Jason Chaffetz represents the eastern third district. At R+24, he’s a shoo-in.
Rating – Safe R
UT-4 – Jim Matheson, with Chet Edwards’s defeat in 2010 and Dan Boren’s coming retirement, assumes the mantle of democrat holding the reddest turf. Matheson is greatly entrenched, but his entrenchment may have been undone by redistricting, which actually made his seat more blue at 41% Obama, but ran it through Provo and other areas outside of his base in Salt Lake City and the rural east/south. He’s fundraised like a maven though, raising 1.57 million and holding 1.25 million in the bank. The republican candidate is Saratoga Springs mayor Mia Love. Her political profile is decent, and she’s raised 494k with 280k of that in the bank, so she appears to be a worthwhile challenger to Matheson. He’ll have to fight for it, but right now he’s favored.
Rating – Leans Democratic
NV-1 – Moving into Nevada now, and into the Las Vegas-based 1st we go. This seat is open with Shelley Berkley’s move for the Senate. Former NV-3 representative Dina Titus is running for the democrats, and she brings money and name recognition to this solidly democratic seat. Chris Edwards is running for the republicans, but he has little to no chance.
Rating – Safe D
NV-2 – Mark Amodei represents this ancestrally republican district in northern Nevada. Obama actually carried this seat by 1% in 2008, but Amodei was impressive in the recent special election against Kate Marshall. Three democrats are looking to face Amodei in November, but none are impressive. This seat might be competitive someday soon, but not yet.
Rating – Safe R
NV-3 – Joe Heck saw his seat get shored up marginally in redistricting, but this territory south of Las Vegas is very swingy at best. Six democrats are looking to face Heck, and the primary is yet to be decided. The dems are tapped out on the financial front but Heck hasn’t been all that impressive in that area either. I’m definitely going with toss up here, with Heck holding the seat for now until I see who emerges on the democratic side of the ledger.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Republican
NV-4 – This is the new district in Nevada, consisting of northern Las Vegas and its suburbs, stretching north into the central part of the state. This race, unlike the NV-3 mashup has been determined already, with democrat and State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford going up against republican Danny Tarkanian. This race looked competitive early, but with Tarkanian possibly having to file for bankruptcy and accusing African-American Horsford of “trying to act black”, his star has dimmed big time. Hard to see how he can possibly turn it around.
Rating – Safe D (new district pickup)
Region Swing – Democrats +2.5
National Swing – Democrats +10.5
ID-1 – This district is hugely republican as one would expect. Raul Labrador has nothing to fear.
Rating – Safe R
ID-2 – The final rocky mountain district is Idaho’s 2nd, home to republican Mike Simpson. He’s safe for re-election too.
Rating – Safe R
Region Recap – The Rocky Mountains provide Team Blue with a decent amount of opportunities for pickups. As I see it now, they will pick up CO-6 and AZ-1, plus pick up 2 of the 3 new districts allocated to the region in NV-4 and AZ-9, with the republicans picking up the new seat in UT-2. That brings the national swing to Democrats +10.5. The best case scenario for the republicans is pretty much the status quo, with them holding on to CO-6 and AZ-1. The democrats on the other hand, could add to their total by picking up toss up contests in CO-3 and NV-3, which would bring their total up to 4.5 seats gained. They’ll need to get this number realistically if they want the House majority back.
Just one region left to go now, the Pacific Coast, after which the whole set of baseline ratings will be complete…and my special ratings color chart will be unveiled. You won’t want to miss that, and it's but a few days away.