Hello again DKE'ers. We continue to rip through the baseline rankings for the House of Representatives, and after Friday's lazy trip through the Gulf Coast Region, today we're back for the 7th region in our trip across the United States. That region is the Western Great Lakes.
Part 7 – The Western Great Lakes
This seventh region of the country, like many in the US, swung very hard toward the Republicans, as they picked up 4 seats in Illinois, 2 in Wisconsin, and 1 in Minnesota. However, this is one area of the country when the republicans really didn’t get a chance to lock in their gains very much and in fact, the democrats got their most powerful gerrymander in Illinois, so there is great, great opportunity for Team Blue in this region. If Team Blue has any designs on taking back the House majority in 2012, they will need to claim more than a few scalps in this region.
Before we get down and dirty in the upper midwest, here’s a look at where we stand so far:
Northeast Region:
Democrats pick up NH-1, NH-2, NY-24, lose 1 seat in redistricting in MA
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – DEM +2.5
Mid-Atlantic Region:
Democrats pick up NJ-3, MD-6, lose 2 seats in redistricting, one in PA, one in NJ
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – DEM +1
Upper South Region:
Democrats pick up no seats
Republicans pick up NC-8, NC-11, NC-13
Swing – GOP +3
South Atlantic Region:
Democrats pick up FL-18, win 2 new seats in FL-9 and FL-22
Republicans pick up no seats, win 1 new seat in SC-7
Swing – DEM +1.5
Eastern Great Lakes Region:
Democrats pick up OH-16, MI-1, MI-11, lose 1 seat in redistricting in MI
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – DEM +2.5
Gulf Coast Region:
Democrats pick up no seats
Republicans pick up no seats, lose 1 seat in redistricting in LA
Swing – DEM +.5
Current National Swing – DEM +5
IL-1 – This seat is a massively democratic one in the Chicago area. Bobby Rush is the democratic representative, and he won’t have any trouble winning re-election.
Rating – Safe D
IL-2 – Jesse Jackson Jr. is holed up in some hospital someplace. That much is true. But what is also true is that he’ll be back in Congress next session.
Rating – Safe D
IL-3 – Conservative democrat Dan Lipinski all but asked to have his seat weakened and gerry-rigged so that he wouldn’t draw a more liberal challenger. This was seen to fruition. At 58% Obama, this district is certainly not out of the realm of danger for Team Blue, and you’d think the republicans would be putting up a better effort to win here, but their candidate is Richard Grabowski, a cashless nobody. Lipinski is safe.
Rating – Safe D
IL-4 – Luis Guitierrez holds this Hispanic VRA seat in Chicago, and at 80% Obama, just like IL-1 and IL-2 it ain’t turning red short of a whole bunch of cash in somebody’s freezer.
Rating – Safe D
IL-5 – Mike Quigley’s district in northern Chicago isn’t as democratic as IL-1, IL-2, or IL-4, but that’s like saying the Chicago White Sox haven’t sucked quite as much historically as the Chicago Cubs. The republican opposition comes from Dan Schmitt, who’s pretty much a Some Dude.
Rating – Safe D
IL-6 – Peter Roskam was pretty entrenched in his western Chicagoland district, so as part of the gerrymander the democrats gave him a 47% McCain seat that is way more republican at the local level in an effort to attack other republicans. This seat could still be possible for the Democrats to take as its only about R+3 or so, and their candidate, Leslie Coolidge has raised 203k this cycle but is currently tapped out after a competitive primary with 2 other democrats. Roskam holds about 476k on hand, so even if Obama does very well at the top, he should be decently equipped to hold it.
Rating – Likely Republican
IL-7 – Danny Davis’s district runs from west Chicago into downtown, and its one of the most democratic districts in the country.
Rating – Safe D
IL-8 – Joe Walsh is one of the biggest blowhards in the House of Representatives. That is a fact. He won his seat in 2010 in one of the biggest upsets of the cycle. That is a fact. His district got changed from a 55% Obama seat to a 62% Obama seat. That is a fact. And he drew one of the strongest democratic challengers in the country this cycle in Tammy Duckworth. That is a fact. While it may be my opinion only that he’ll be squished like the little cockroach that he is in November, I think its only a matter of time before that becomes fact too.
Rating – Likely Democratic (democratic pickup)
Region Swing – Democrats +1
National Swing – Democrats +6
IL-9 – Jan Schakowsky’s north side district is another democratic bastion at 69% Obama. She doesn’t have much opposition to worry about as the republican, Tim Wolfe, is cashless.
Rating – Safe D
IL-10 – This seat north of Chicago is home to Bob Dold! Dold barely won over Dan Seals in 2010 to hold this district, which has been agonizingly tough for democrats to crack locally despite it being a 60+% Obama district. It got even bluer in redistricting, going to 63% Obama. Dold has a flat-out ridiculous amount of cash, at 2.9 million raised and 2.05 million on hand. However, democratic candidate Brad Schneider is no slouch, having raised 1.62 million and having 612k on hand, which would be higher if he didn’t have to spend so much of it in a contested primary earlier on. Despite the district’s history, I think it would’ve gone blue in anything but a massive red wave in 2010, which is what happened. This year, Schneider gets it done for Team Blue.
Rating – Leans Democratic (democratic pickup)
Region Swing – Democrats +2
National Swing – Democrats +7
IL-11 – This seat is a suburban district lying to the southwest of Chicago. Judy Biggert is the republican representative here, and she was the biggest loser in the new democratic gerrymander of Illinois. Deeply entrenched in her previously swingy district, she now sits in a 61% Obama district. Worse for Biggert, a big name in former IL-14 representative Bill Foster stepped up to run and won the primary. Even worse, Biggert, despite raising 1.76 million and holding 1.15 million on hand, Foster has been such a fundraising maven that she is actually down by 100k in the cash on hand race. I know Biggert is fairly well liked and is an astute politician, but she’s facing nearly insurmountable odds here.
Rating – Leans Democratic (democratic pickup)
Region – Democrats +3
National Swing – Democrats +8
IL-12 – This is one of two swingy seats downstate, an area that is trending republican for the most part. The seat is 55% Obama and lies in the lower Mississippi River valley. Rep Jerry Costello is retiring so the seat is open. The democrats were dealt a blow in recruitment here as St Clair County Superintendent Brad Harriman was sidelined due to a neurological condition. Businessman William Enyart is the democratic candidate, but his fundraising is underwhelming at 177k, though he hasn’t spent any of that yet. The republicans landed a pretty good candidate here in 2010 Lt Governor candidate Jason Plummer. Plummer holds a modest cash on hand advantage at this point but even his efforts aren’t outstanding. This looks to be a very tough call, one of the toughest calls I’ve had to make all cycle so far. I’m going with Enyart, barely, thanks to the district’s ancestrally democratic tendencies.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Democratic
IL-13 – This is yet another competitive race in Illinois. Tim Johnson retired as his district was sliced and diced into a swing seat connecting Bloomington, Normal, Springfield, and Champaign. This race should be a tight one. The republican candidate is Rodney Davis, the democratic candidate is 2010 IL-15 candidate David Gill. Davis currently holds a 2-to-1 cash on hand advantage at 429k to 198k. Obama will likely win this district again, but I think a lot of this territory is ancestrally republican, and that Davis has the slightest of edges right now.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Republican
IL-14 – This district covers a lot of exurban territory west of Chicago. Randy Hultgren is the representative here, and though officially it is R+6 according to Charlie Cook, Obama actually carried the seat in 2008 by 3%. That being said, the seat is ancestrally very republican, and the democratic challenger, Dennis Anderson, doesn’t look like the sort to take down Hultgren. Although, I must point out that Hultgren is only holding 115k cash on hand, which is a very underwhelming total. If he sleepwalks through this and Obama carries the district again…who knows what might happen if voters vote straight ticket.
Rating – Likely Republican
IL-15 – This is the most republican district in Illinois, stretching through the southeastern part of the state in mostly rural territory. John Shimkus is the republican representative here, and he should be fine. Democrat Angela Michael is running against him but she’s cashless and without much of a profile.
Rating – Safe R
IL-16 – This seat in rural northern Illinois was the site of an incumbent v incumbent primary in which Adam Kinzinger defeat Donald Manzullo. Kinzinger should now breeze to re-election even though Obama carried this seat in 2008, democratic challenger Wanda Rohl is very unimpressive.
Rating – Safe R
IL-17 – Bobby Schilling became a congressman when Phil Hare ran one of the worst campaigns in recent memory in 2010. Now this seat is heavily democratic at 60% Obama, taking in parts of Peoria and Rockford in addition to its center in the Quad Cities. East Moline Alderwoman Cheri Bustos is the democratic candidate here, and she has a very impressive profile, raising 1.29 million this cycle and holding 839k on hand. That’s actually just behind Schilling who has raised 1.47 million and holds 931k, but given the partisan lean of the district and Bustos’s campaigning ability, Schilling is definitely the underdog to return to Congress.
Rating – Lean Democratic (democratic pickup)
Region Swing – Democrats +4
National Swing – Democrats +9
IL-18 – This is a heavily republican rural district in the west of the state. Aaron Schock, a GOPer who could pretty much get by on his looks alone if he had too, can also depend on nice republican partisan lean. The democrat is Steve Waterworth, but he’s a perennial candidate without any cash.
Rating – Safe R
Illinois Redistricting – Before we move out of Illinois we have a redistricting adjustment to make, as IL-19, a very red seat was eliminated. This adds another ½ seat for the democrats.
Region Swing – Democrats +4.5
National Swing – Democrats +9.5
WI-1 – Oh my did this race just get interesting! Paul Ryan, one of the top house GOPers, was just picked as presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s running mate. He can still run for re-election here, but with his ultra-conservative profile going national, this race probably will too. Democrat Rob Zerban was already doing a solid job fundraising before this at 1.22 million raised and 538k on hand, but the money will likely start pouring in now. Ryan has 2.4 million to spend, but again, I don’t think fundraising will matter much here. Both sides will get their message out, probably ten times over. In the 2008 presidential, Obama won this district 51-48, and I’m not expecting as much split ticket voting here as then because of Ryan being the VP nominee. Right now I say Ryan holds on, but this one is definitely a threat to turn over now.
Rating – Leans Republican
WI-2 – This is a safe D seat centered on Madison. Democrat Tammy Baldwin is running for the Senate, so the seat is open. The D primary favorites are state representatives Mark Pocan and Kelda Roys, although Dane County Treasurer Dave Worzala might have a say too. Whoever wins the D primary will win in November.
Rating – Safe D
WI-3 – This seat in rural southwestern Wisconsin, held by democrat Ron Kind, was actually shored up a bit in order to help republican Sean Duffy. At 59% Obama, it should be a Dem hold in all but the worst of years. The republican in the race, Ray Boland, is a cashless Some Dude.
Rating – Safe D
WI-4 – This is a VRA seat in Milwaukee. Gwen Moore is safe. 2010 candidate Dan Sebring is the republican sacrificial lamb.
Rating – Safe D
WI-5 – We move now into the so-called “circle of ignorance” in the Milwaukee suburbs. Jim Sensenbrenner is the representative for the GOP, and he’s safe. David Heaster will try, unsuccessfully, to slay the dragon known as Waukesha for Team Blue.
Rating – Safe R
WI-6 – Tom Petri’s district based in Oshkosh and Fond du Lac was tied in the 2008 presidential, but it is usually very republican. His seat is little changed in redistricting, and he should be fine to win another term. Democrat Lauren Stephens will try to beat him, but she’s a Some Dudette with no cash.
Rating – Safe R
WI-7 – Joe Walsh may be the biggest dirtbag republican in the Western Great Lakes, but Sean Duffy is up for an honorable mention. Despite some of his more heartburn inducing statements, the republicans shored him up a bit in redistricting, but this seat was still carried by Obama 53-45, making the PVI about even. The democratic candidate here is businessman Pat Kreitlow, who has raised 800k and holds about 437k on hand. That pales in comparison to Duffy’s strong 1.82 million raised and 1.04 million on hand. I don’t get the vibe that Duffy is a very astute campaigner though, so this will be a race worth watching, and with Obama likely to carry WI-7, this might go right down to the wire. Right now I have Duffy retaining the seat, barely.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Republican
WI-8 – This final Wisconsin seat is in the northeast, centered on Green Bay, which for some reason leans republican but went hard for Barack Obama four years ago. Reid Ribble is the representative here, he knocked out democrat Steve Kagen in 2010. 2006 primary candidate Jamie Wall is running for the democrats, and she’s done pretty well fundraising, raising 711k and holding 506k on hand. Ribble has been very strong as well, raising 1.63 million and holding 872k on hand. In that regard, Ribble is just behind Duffy, but I don’t think that Ribble is nearly as obnoxious and as easy to frame as such to swing voters. The district PVI-wise is almost identical to WI-7, Obama won by 9% in 2008, but the territory is more ancestrally republican. This will likely be another close one, but Ribble has a slight edge.
Rating – Leans Republican
MN-1 – Moving into Minnesota now, this is Tim Walz’s district. Obama carried this seat by just 4% in 2008, so you’d think the republicans would be going after Walz with gusto, but their candidate, state senator Mike Parry, only has 30k in the bank. How a state senator isn’t doing better than that I don’t know. Walz meanwhile has 800k in the bank. This could turn into a race if Parry gets the fundraising going, but for now there’s not much to see.
Rating – Likely Democratic
MN-2 – John Kline’s seat in the south MSP suburbs became nominally more democratic in redistricting, moving to an R+2 Obama district. Kline has been fundraising like a demon, raising 1.84 million and holding 1.16 million on hand. The democrats, known as democrat-farmer-laborers in Minnesota, came up with a solid candidate in former state representative Mike Obermueller. His fundraising has been so-so to this point at 307k raised and 227k in the bank. I think this could be one of those seats that falls if a democratic wave forms, but right now Kline definitely has the advantage.
Rating – Likely Republican
MN-3 – This seat in Minneapolis’s western suburbs is nominally republican at the presidential level, but extremely ancestrally republican. Erik Paulsen is the GOP representative, and he’s sitting on a huge warchest, plus his democratic opponent, Brian Barnes, is a some dude with no cash.
Rating – Safe R
MN-4 – Betty McCollum’s district is based in St Paul. It’s solidly democratic, and the republican opposition is weak.
Rating – Safe D
MN-5 – Keith Ellison represents the Minneapolis-based 5th, and as the most democratic seat in the region outside of Chicago, he’s not going anywhere.
Rating – Safe D
MN-6 – Ah yes, the home of one Michelle Bachmann. Well, actually the 6th isn’t her home anymore as her house got moved into Betty McCollum’s 4th district, but the point remains. Her seat got shored up in redistricting to 55% McCain, making any pickup difficult despite her ridiculousness. As it stands she has to get by a primary challenge from Stephen Thompson and Aubrey Immelman, but she should do so easily. The democratic candidate is Jim Graves, who has raised 578k so far this cycle and holds 352k on hand. I don’t know much about his overall profile besides that, but he’ll have to run the race of his life to beat Bachmann, who’s always flush with cash and long on hate.
Rating – Likely Republican
MN-7 – This nominally republican rural district in western Minnesota is held by DFLer Collin Peterson, who’s one the most entrenched representatives in the whole country. Republican Lee Byberg is back for another run, but he’s got just 74k in cash on hand, plus he got crushed in 2010 when most other republicans were winning. Peterson has 823k raised this cycle and 400k on hand, so he’s definitely not sleeping through this one.
Rating – Safe D
MN-8 – We close out the region with an absolute doozy in Minnesota’s Iron Range. Freshman GOPer Chip Cravaack is a weapons-grade wingnut who has absolutely no business representing a D+2, ancestrally democratic seat. He won it in 2010 of course, when Jim Oberstar ran a horrible campaign on top of the R wave. As you can imagine, the democratic primary was heated from the start. Although Jeff Anderson is in the race and might have a say, the race will likely come down between former representative Rick Nolan and former state senate majority leader Taryl Clark. Clark has had the money lead from the start and has moneybombed the district with ads late to get a victory, while Nolan is the establishment choice who has the better grassroots support. Cravaack has to be loving this, because he has almost 900k cash on hand and the democratic primary winner, whoever it is, will be tapped out financially and need to rebuild. While this looks favorable for Cravaack right at the moment, I think once the primary is over and the Dem consolidates support and fundraises again, the spotlight will turn back to Cravaack’s ultra-conservative views and his unpopularity.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Democratic (democratic pickup)
Region Swing – Democrats +5
National Swing – Democrats +10
Region Wrapup: This is by far the best region of the country for Team Blue thus far, as they take over an impressive 5 seats from the republicans. 4 of the seats are in Illinois, IL-8, IL-10, IL-11, and IL-16, plus the GOP lost a seat in redistricting. The democrats also pick up MN-8. The scary thing is here for the republicans, outside of IL-12 which is an open seat trending somewhat in their direction, they really don’t have any chances elsewhere. And worse for them, this prediction assumes that they hold onto marginal seats in IL-13, WI-7, and WI-8, the first two of which are basically coin flip races. Best case scenario for the Republicans is they win IL-12 and Cravaack wins and they only drop 3.5 seats. The democrats on the other hand, could win the 5 seats I have them winning now, plus IL-13, WI-7, and WI-8, for an incredible +8.5, basically a reversal of 2010 and then some. The national swing now stands at DEM +10.5.