2012 Baseline Presidential Ratings
2 weeks ago I came out with my preliminary Senate rankings, and this time I take my first look at the 2012 Presidential Election. These ratings are mostly based off of past election data, PVI, and other rudimentary figures since we haven’t seen a whole lot of polling data in individual states yet. Therefore this diary won’t be quite as detailed as the Senate one, but they’ll get more detailed once we get into the heart of the race. Here goes.
THE MAP:
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NORTHEAST REGION:
Maine – Likely D – Maine isn’t as democratic as some northeastern states, but it’s a very difficult nut for the GOP to crack in anything but a landslide.
New Hampshire – Toss Up – This is a big money state but is low on electoral votes. It went very, very blue in 2006 and 2008 and very red in 2010, so whoever is leading nationally will likely win by more than national average indicates. My guess is that Romney will do well here if he is the nominee, but if its Santorum, Obama will likely clean up. Right now it’s a toss up until the nominee is determined. This is Obama’s toughest state in the northeast to win.
Vermont – Safe D – Vermont was the 2nd most democratic state in 2008. Next.
Massachusetts – Safe D – It will be interesting to see how Romney does here if he is the nominee. He might keep the margin lower than normal, but doesn’t have a snowball’s chance of winning.
Rhode Island – Safe D – I know a lot of people in RI are upset with government corruption and high unemployment, but seriously, this state ain’t going red in a presidential race, probably not in my lifetime at this rate.
Connecticut – Safe D – Here’s another New England state that votes very strongly democratic in presidential elections. No reason that won’t happen again this year.
New York – Safe D – Another solidly democratic state. Next.
New Jersey – Likely D – New Jersey isn’t quite as democratic as the New England states generally are, there is a relatively strong GOP base in Ocean & Monmouth counties as well as the northwestern mountains, but that isn’t enough to win statewide.
Pennsylvania – Lean D – This state is really enigmatic in its voting patterns. Santorum is from here, but I’m not really sure he’d do better than Romney here in fact he might even do worse, I think he’d get clobbered in SEPA because of his stand on social issues. Obama is really, really unpopular in central and southwestern Pennsylvania, which gives the GOP a chance, but they always seem to contend but never win here. I’m kind of in the mood of, okay, until Team Red actually wins one here, I don’t think they can.
Delaware – Safe D – Nothing to worry about here. The Dem base in Wilmington and New Castle County easily trounces GOP strength in the south of the state.
Maryland – Safe D – Maryland is quickly becoming mission impossible for the GOP. Next.
Washington D.C. – Safe D – Haha. Hahahahaha. Next.
NORTHEAST REGION TOTAL –
Safe D – 70 EVs
Likely D – 18 EVs
Lean D – 20 EVs
Toss Up – 4 EVs
SOUTHEAST REGION:
Virginia – Toss Up – Virginia is a definite toss up. It is a state that is like Pennsylvania in that one end of the state, in this case the western and southern half, is moving republican while the northern and eastern portions are moving democratic. Obama won here in 2008 and still seems fairly popular among base voters here. Romney would probably do better than Santorum here.
North Carolina – Toss Up – This is a state that has moved rather strongly in the democratic direction of late, especially in the Charlotte area as well as the research triangle part of the state. We’ve actually seen some polls here, and they show a tight race. Many of the pundits were taken by surprise, as they expected a quick reversion to the GOP after Obama’s tight win in 2008. Not so fast.
South Carolina – Likely R – The GOP is definitely favored here, as they’ve won most all races in the Palmetto state of late, but I wonder if at some point, all the scandals and turmoil might finally bite the GOP. The 2010 gubernatorial race was surprisingly close, and the 2008 presidential race was in single digits. Plus, the other states on the southeastern coast are all moving leftward. Something to think about.
Georgia – Lean R – Georgia is another state that is moving in the leftward direction, mostly because the suburban areas around Atlanta are turning leftward very quickly, faster than the rural areas are turning rightward. Still, either of the republicans’ main candidates would be favored to beat Obama here. Santorum would almost certainly do better than Romney here.
Florida – Toss Up – Florida appears to be turning in the rightward direction, especially in the northern half of the state. The unpopular noose of governor Rick Scott is a definite weight for the GOP candidate though. Again, the battle to win will likely be centered around the I-4 corridor between Tampa and Orlando, the latter of which is moving democratic at a fairly quick clip. Romney would definitely be a better candidate here than Santorum.
Kentucky – Safe R – Kentucky just hates Obama, plain and simple. Local dems do much better here, but the presidential contest won’t be close.
West Virginia – Likely R – West Virginia is like Kentucky except that it is even more strongly democratic at the local level. WV was closer than KY in the 2008 election, but Obama is very unpopular here nevertheless. It would take a strange turn of events for him to flip WV into his column.
Tennessee – Safe R – Tennessee is turning rightward, especially in the traditionally democratic western half of the state. Outside of Memphis and Nashville there isn’t much of a Dem base anymore.
Alabama – Safe R – Not even worth talking about. Next.
Mississippi – Safe R – This state is defined almost totally by racial-based voting. Obama won 98% of blacks but just 11% of whites in 2008. Unless blacks outnumber whites in the 2012 vote, Obama ain’t winning.
Arkansas – Safe R – The lightspeed at which this state is moving to the right is startling.
Louisiana – Safe R – Ditto.
SOUTHEAST REGION TOTAL –
Toss Up – 57 EVs
Lean R – 16 EVs
Likely R – 14 EVs
Safe R – 49 EVs
MIDWEST REGION:
Ohio – Toss Up – Always a premier battleground, Ohio starts in the toss up column. The battle lines are changing here too, much like Pennsylvania and Virginia. The cities are turning blue very quickly, especially Columbus and Cincinnati, but the rural areas in the south and east of the state are turning red. Santorum would have a much better shot here than Romney, but either way it will be close.
Indiana – Lean R – Indiana seems to have slipped back into republican voting mode following Obama’s unexpected 1-pt win in 2008. Really the democrats have to hold margins down in the rural country while running up huge margins in Indianapolis and the northwestern ring around Lake Michigan to have a good chance. If Romney is the nominee the democratic chances go up marginally.
Michigan – Lean D – Michigan is just like Pennsylvania, a state Republicans say they can win, but they can’t. The state played the republican game in 2010 just like any other but with Romney struggling here and with their Senate candidate running stupid TV ads, the optics aren’t good here. Obama will clean up in southeast Michigan and that will be enough on its own to win, though his margin may not match 08.
Wisconsin – Lean D – I think Wisconsin is so much of a hotbed for political activity, that the democratic base won’t let themselves fall asleep or be tricked like they were in 2010. Obama will put up massive numbers in Milwaukee and Madison again and win much of the west part of the state, so the republican nominee will need to be relentless in courting voters in the Milwaukee burbs and the east. Another state where the GOP says they can win, but can’t.
Minnesota – Lean D – I was very close at starting this one out at Likely, but if Santorum is the nominee he might have an outside shot at winning. Romney would get crushed. Obama is fairly popular in MN, and the margins he puts up in the twin cities would make it very difficult for the Republicans to make up for in the rural areas.
Iowa – Toss Up – This is another quintessential swing state. The GOP allegedly has a head start here because of the fierce primary campaigning that took place here, but I’m not really buying it. The state’s eastern half is very democratic in spots and either Romney or Santorum would have to overcome that to win. Obama would have to avoid getting crushed in the western half. Should be a good race.
Illinois – Safe D – Almost forgot about this one. No republican candidate is overcoming Chicago’s blue hue unless they can turn the suburbs red. Not likely to happen.
Missouri – Lean R – Missouri has trended in the rightward direction, to the point where the rural areas are now blood red. Obama rang up huge margins in the cities in 2008 but it wasn’t enough to win. I’m not sure what else he could do to win, honestly. Maybe if Romney is the nominee the rural turnout won’t be as high and he’ll have a better shot than against Santorum.
North Dakota – Likely R – I think North Dakota isn’t likely to flip, but with such a small population and the state’s turn leftward in 2008, if Obama can clean up in Fargo and Grand Forks it’ll be a decent starting point.
South Dakota – Likely R – Same as with North Dakota, Obama’s got a really uphill battle to face here, no matter who the GOP candidate is.
Nebraska – Safe R – Obama will put some resources into Omaha in an effort to win the 2nd congressional district again, but outside of that he’s got no shot here.
Kansas – Safe R – Another hugely Republican state. Next.
MIDWEST REGION TOTAL –
Safe D – 20 EVs
Lean D – 36 EVs
Toss Up – 24 EVs
Lean R – 21 EVs
Likely R – 6 EVs
Safe R – 11 EVs
SOUTHWEST/MOUNTAIN REGION:
Oklahoma – Safe R – The reddest state in the nation in 2008. Next.
Texas – Likely R – This is a state that I honestly think should start to become less partisan toward the Republicans as the suburban communities start to lose their rock-ribbed Republicanism and the increase in the Hispanic population continues. My guess is that it could be in play in the future, but Obama has little to no chance of winning against either prospective republican.
New Mexico – Lean D – NM has really turned hard in the leftward direction in recent years, especially in the northern and central parts of the state. Again, with Hispanic population driving much of the growth, the GOP will have to get better at courting these voters. It’s not an impossible task for the GOP to win here, but it’ll be tough.
Colorado – Toss Up – This once pinkish-red state has turned in the democratic direction as well, mostly because of Denver’s suburban communities . There is still a considerable republican base here, especially in the rural country as well as the Colorado Springs area, but the democrats have a very strong bastion of support near Denver, Boulder, and Pueblo. This will definitely be a swing state that will determine the course of the election and the money will come hard and fast.
Wyoming – Safe R – This state isn’t going blue anytime soon. Next.
Montana – Lean R – This is a state that very nearly went blue in 2008, a far cry from its republican blowout numbers in 2004. The state has two democratic senators and is also the site of one of the premier senate contests this year. Obama could probably win this one if he’s winning nationally, but in a tight race Montana will likely keep its pink hue. A cheap state though, so it’ll probably get lots of ads.
Idaho – Safe R – Another state that isn’t going anywhere. Next.
Utah – Safe R – Ditto. Could be interesting to see the results here if Romney ultimately doesn’t win the nomination, if any kind of a mormon-based backlash happens, but Obama still has no chance.
Arizona – Likely R – This is a state that appeared to be heading in the democratic direction in 2008 but was stymied by the McCain home state effect. But maybe we were deluding ourselves, either that or the state took a sharp turn to the right sometime between 2008 and 2012 because it doesn’t look like Obama has much chance to win here. Not impossible, but not likely.
Nevada – Lean D – I’m really getting sick and tired of the media and pundits talking about Nevada like its such a tough swing state. It’s not. Nevada might have gone republican in 2004, but since then it has taken a very hard swing to the left, as evidenced by Harry Reid’s victory over Sharron Angle in 2010. The republican candidate would really have to run a great race to win this state.
SOUTHWEST/MOUNTAIN REGION TOTAL –
Lean D – 10 EVs
Toss Up – 9 EVs
Lean R – 3 EVs
Likely R – 49 EVs
Safe R – 20 EVs
PACIFIC REGION:
Washington – Likely D – Washington is a state that has really been tough for Republicans to break through, and with most of the population situated around the Puget Sound, that isn’t likely to change. Obama would really have to tank in order to lose this one.
Oregon – Likely D – Oregon is in the same place as Washington. It didn’t used to be so democratic, but it has taken a hard swing to the left in the past decade, especially around Portland as well as other bastions of support like Corvallis and Eugene.
California – Safe D – Can’t see California going red again for a long, long time. Next.
Alaska – Likely R – Alaska has a bit of an independent streak at times. Obama was running competitively with McCain through the summer of 2008 before Sarah Palin’s emergence took the state off the board. This will still be a very difficult state to turn into the blue column, but perhaps not as impossible as some pundits would think, especially because ads would come cheap there.
Hawaii – Safe D – The most democratic state in the nation in 2008 probably will be again in 2012. Fin.
PACIFIC REGION TOTAL
Safe D – 59 EVs
Likely D – 19 EVs
Likely R – 3 EVs
NATIONAL TOTAL –
Safe D – 149 EVs
Likely D – 37 EVs
Lean D – 66 EVs (252 EVs in democratic column)
Toss Up – 94 EVs
Lean R – 40 EVs (192 EVs in republican column)
Likely R – 72 EVs
Safe R – 80 EVs
So that’s where I see things today. Comments, questions, and suggestions can be made and I’ll look to answer many of them in the thread.