Hello DKE'ers, and welcome once again to StephenCLE's House Rankings. It's been a long time since our last installment, about two months, but the time has come to get back to business. In this diary, I continue my series on the House of Representatives. Having already gone through the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Coastal Southeast regions, today we turn our attentions to the Great Lakes. This region has been for some time one of the swing regions of the country in presidential elections, and it does feature some interesting House contests as well.
Recapping our analysis so far:
Northeast (ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY) - Democrats 43 seats, Republicans 5 seats, Dems pick up NY-11 & NY-19, Reps pick up NY-21, swing D+1
Mid-Atlantic (PA, NJ, MD, DE) - Democrats 20 seats, Republicans 19 seats, Dems pick up NJ-3, Reps pick up no seats, swing D+1
Coastal Southeast (VA, NC, SC, GA, FL) - Democrats 22 seats, Republicans 49 seats
Dems pick up no seats, Reps pick up NC-7, swing R+1
Total swing through 3 regions - D+1
OH-1 – Fred Kundrata vs Steve Chabot-inc
The Cincinnati-based 1st district contains part of Cincinnati and all of blood red Warren County. Steve Chabot is the representative here, and he should win easily under underfunded republican-turned-democrat Fred Kundrata
Rating – Safe R
OH-2 – Marek Tyszkiewicz vs Brad Wenstrup-inc
The 2nd district takes in the rest of Cincinnati and some of the river counties to the east. Brad Wenstrup is the republican incumbent. He too should be back in Congress next cycle.
Rating – Safe R
OH-3 – Joyce Beatty-inc vs John Adams
The 3rd district covers most of Columbus. Joyce Beatty is the democratic incumbent, and in this blue island surrounded by red territory, she has nothing to worry about.
Rating – Safe D
OH-4 – Janet Garrett vs Jim Jordan-inc
The 4th district snakes from the rural west up toward north central Ohio. At R+7 it’s on the fringe of what a democrat could win in a wave year. Incumbent Jim Jordan looked to be uncontested in this district, but democrat Janet Garrett decided to wage a write-in candidacy in the primary and garnered enough votes to qualify for the ballot. That being said, her chances of winning are slim to none.
Rating – Safe R
OH-5 – Robert Fry vs Bob Latta-inc
The 5th district takes in much of rural northwest Ohio. It’s an area that is ancestrally republican and pretty red in terms of PVI as well. Incumbent Bob Latta should be fine.
Rating – Safe R
OH-6 – Jennifer Garrison vs Bill Johnson-inc
The 6th is Ted Strickland’s old district, taking in much of southeast Ohio. This is the first somewhat competitive district in the Buckeye State. Incumbent Bill Johnson has been in tough battles the last 2 election cycles, and this cycle he drew a challenge from state representative Jennifer Garrison. Garrison isn’t widely beloved in democratic circles due to her moderate to conservative social views, but she is a very good fit policy wise for economically liberal/socially conservative southeast Ohio. The issue for Garrison right now is money, she has $231k in the bank, but that pales to Johnson’s 1.2 million. The district is ancestrally democratic but is now very red in terms of PVI and trending rightward. In the end I think Garrison will put up a decent fight but Johnson is very likely to prevail.
Rating – Likely R
OH-7 – nobody vs Bob Gibbs-inc
Incumbent Bob Gibbs did not draw a democratic challenger this cycle, so he’s going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R
OH-8 – Tom Poetter vs John Boehner-inc
This is the speaker’s district, a massively red area between the Cincinnati suburbs and rural west Ohio. Democrat Tom Poetter is running against the Tan Man. Godspeed sir.
Rating – Safe R
OH-9 – Marcy Kaptur-inc vs Richard May
This district snakes along Lake Erie from Toledo to Cleveland. This was the place where Dennis Kucinich saw his congressional career come to an end against current incumbent Marcy Kaptur. She’ll have this seat as long as she wants it.
Rating – Safe D
OH-10 – Robert Klepinger vs Mike Turner-inc
The 10th district is centered on Dayton. Incumbent Mike Turner is very popular there, which makes this a non-contest. The 10th should theoretically be a district worth contesting, as Barack Obama won it in 2008 and narrowly lost it in 2012. Democrat Robert Klepinger will try, but he doesn’t have much of a shot against the powerful Turner.
Rating – Safe R
OH-11 – Marcia Fudge-inc vs Mark Zetzer
The 11th district goes from Cleveland to Akron, and is one of the most democratic districts in the nation. Marcia Fudge won’t have any trouble making it back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
OH-12 – David Tibbs vs Patrick Tiberi-inc
The 12th district is a very red swath of land in central Ohio north of Columbus. Patrick Tiberi is the republican incumbent, and he should win easily over Some Dude candidate David Tibbs.
Rating – Safe R
OH-13 – Tim Ryan-inc vs nobody
Democrat Tim Ryan did not draw a challenger this cycle, so he’s going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
OH-14 – Michael Wager vs David Joyce-inc
This is probably the most competitive race in Ohio this cycle. David Joyce is a freshman incumbent for the GOP. The district covers the northeast corner of the state, and is marginally republican in PVI. Mitt Romney triumphed barely over Barack Obama here in 2012. Democrat Michael Wager has stepped forward to run against Joyce. His overall profile is perhaps not quite as strong is Jennifer Garrison’s in OH-6, but Wager has fundraised fairly well, and holds $526k in the bank compared to Joyce’s 1.02 million. That gap actually got smaller in Q2 as Joyce lost about 150k in cash on hand. Given the PVI and given the money situation, if Wager puts together a solid campaign in the fall this district could well be in play. I give Joyce the edge for now, but this definitely merits watching.
Rating – Lean R
OH-15 – Richard Wharton vs Steve Stivers-inc
The 15th district is another oddly-shaped one, stretching from central Ohio to the southeast. It’s actually not as republican as you might think since the mapmakers threw liberal Athens into the mix, but republican Steve Stivers is a powerful incumbent. Democrat Richard Wharton doesn’t have the resources needed to beat him.
Rating – Safe R
OH-16 – Pete Crossland vs Jim Renacci-inc
We finish Ohio in my home district, which takes in a lot of suburbs of Cleveland and Akron. Republican Jim Renacci is a strong incumbent, and democrat Pete Crossland doesn’t have the profile or resources of the woman Renacci beat last cycle, former representative Betty Sutton. Renacci should win easily.
Rating – Safe R
MI-1 – Jerry Cannon vs Dan Benishek-inc
We enter Michigan now, and our first stop is in the north of the state. The first district has been the Bloody First of late, with massively close races in each of the last two cycles. Incumbent republican Dan Benishek has been able to barely cling to his seat, winning by 1% in 2012. This is a district that is trending republican, and that trend probably saved him last time around. His democratic opponent this cycle is former army general and Kalkaska County Sheriff Jerry Cannon. Cannon has a very strong profile and has fundraised well, as he has $373k in the bank to Benishek’s $942k. What I can’t seem to figure out is whether this district failed to flip in 2012 because of Barack Obama’s unpopularity here, or Romney’s strong performance is indicative of a bigger trend toward the GOP. If it’s the former, Cannon might win. Right now though I have to give Benishek the edge.
Rating – Lean R
MI-2 – Dean Vanderstelt vs Bill Huizenga-inc
The 2nd district is the most republican in Michigan, taking in much of the west coast of Lake Michigan. Bill Huizenga should triumph easily over democrat Dean Vanderstelt.
Rating – Safe R
MI-3 – Bob Goodrich vs Justin Amash-inc
The 3rd district is centered on Grand Rapids. Justin Amash has always been a somewhat unpopular figure in the GOP, mostly for his tea party views and no votes from the right on many pieces of legislation. This district got slightly bluer in redistricting, so you’d think that democrats would try to improve on their 8% loss here last cycle. Unfortunately, Some Dude candidate Bob Goodrich was the best they could scrape up. I’m not seeing how that is enough to beat the well-funded Amash.
Rating – Safe R
MI-4 – Open seat race
The 4th district covers much of central Michigan. With Dave Camp’s retirement the seat is open. Michigan, unlike the other states in the Great Lakes region, hasn’t had their primary yet, so the republican field is divided between businessman Paul Mitchell and state senator John Moolenar. At this point it appears that Mitchell will probably win the primary, which is a bit of a surprise. The democratic candidate in the race is a Some Dude by the name of Jeff Holmes. That’s a bit of a recruiting fail, and tells me that the republicans should hold the seat.
Rating – Safe R
MI-5 – Dan Kildee-inc vs ???
The 5th district takes in the democratic bastions of Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City. Dan Kildee has a pair of republicans dueling it out in the primary for the right to face him, but he should have no trouble retaining his seat.
Rating – Safe D
MI-6 – Paul Clements vs Fred Upton-inc
The 6th district is a closely contested one nationally with a slightly republican PVI. Romney beat Obama here by 1% in 2012. Republican incumbent Fred Upton is relatively entrenched but isn’t used to having serious challenges thrown his way. Democratic candidate Paul Clements, a professor, is locking to take down Upton this cycle. I don’t know that being a professor gives one a good profile for federal office, but Clements does have some good money at $354k in the bank. I think this is somewhat of a long shot honestly, but because of the relatively even PVI I feel I must put it into the competitive zone.
Rating – Likely R
MI-7 – Pam Byrnes vs Tim Walberg-inc
The 7th district takes up much of south central Michigan. Incumbent Tim Walberg got off relatively easy in 2012 without much of a challenge, but yet he only garnered 53% of the vote. As a tea party extremist, Walberg isn’t all that popular within the district, and it’s one that Mitt Romney only won by 3% in 2012, so in terms of PVI it is gettable for democrats. The democratic candidate this cycle is Pam Byrnes. Byrnes seems to have a decent profile for the district and has been fundraising very well, holding $609k in the bank to Walberg’s 1.06 million. I see this being a really hot contest due to Walberg being a weak and unpopular incumbent. If Byrnes runs a great campaign I honestly think she will win, but right now I give Walberg the slightest of edges.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R
MI-8 – Open seat race
The 8th district is an open seat contest, and here you have all the makings of a very competitive race. Both of the primaries are contested by more than 2 candidates. Former Michigan house speaker Mike Bishop seems the most likely to emerge on the republican side, while Ingham County treasurer Eric Schertzing seems the likeliest to win the democratic nomination. If there’s a surprise on either side that could alter my view on the race, but if it is a Bishop vs Schertzing contest, it will be a real battle between two established and strong politicians. I would give Bishop the slightest of edges due to the marginally republican PVI, but this is one to definitely watch.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R
MI-9 – Sander Levin-inc vs George Glihko
The 9th district became somewhat less blue in redistricting, but is still very strongly democratic. Entrenched incumbent Sander Levin should prevail easily over Some Dude republican George Glihko.
Rating – Safe D
MI-10 – Chuck Stadler vs Candice Miller-inc
The 10th district is a solidly republican seat, and Candice Miller is a very strong and popular incumbent. She beat democrat Chuck Stadler by 40 points in 2012, and I don’t see why this year would be different.
Rating – Safe R
MI-11 - ??? vs ???
Now this seat is interesting. Republican Kerry Bentivolio is the incumbent here, and he’s sort of a whackjob, to the point where other republicans don’t really like him. Businessman David Trott is running against him in the primary and is expected to knock Bentivolio off. In expectation of this, urologist Anil Kumar and businessman David McKenzie are facing off in the democratic primary for the shot at an open seat. I’m not sure who is likelier to triumph there. Based on a hunch, I think Trott would be a fairly astute candidate and not as easy to beat as Bentivolio would be, though you can never really tell with first time non-politicians. This definitely will be re-evaluated after the primary, but I see this district as less likely to flip than the 7th or 8th.
Rating – Lean R
MI-12 – Open seat race
With longtime democratic incumbent John Dingell retiring, this seat is technically open, but his wife Debbie Dingell is running for the democrats instead. Republicans Stephen Farkas and Terry Bowman are running for the right to face her, but since this is a very democratic district, they won’t come close to beating her.
Rating – Safe D
MI-13 – John Conyers-inc vs Jeff Gorman
The 13th is based in Detroit and is one of the most democratic districts in the nation. Conyers will have no trouble dispatching republican Jeff Gorman.
Rating – Safe D
MI-14 – Open seat race
The 14th district is also centered on Detroit, and is open. This is a very heated and contested democratic primary with 3 noteworthy combatants, former US rep Hansen Clarke, state representative Rudy Hobbs, and Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence. Republican Christina Conyers is waiting in the wings to see which democrat triumphs, and thus has the right to walk all over her in the general election.
Rating – Safe D
IN-1 – Pete Visclosky-inc vs Mark Leyva
After all the competitive seats in Michigan, we now head to Indiana, where there is comparatively little action taking place. The first district is centered on Gary and Chicago’s suburbs, and it is very democratic. Pete Visclosky isn’t a great incumbent and is somewhat scandal tainted, but he’ll go back to Congress easily unless something unexpected happens.
Rating – Safe D
IN-2 – Joseph Bock vs Jackie Walorski-inc
The South Bend-based 2nd district didn’t change a lot in redistricting, but the extra 2% republican advantage it got was the difference in Jackie Walorski’s 1% nailbiter win over democrat Brendan Mullen. Oddly enough, Mitt Romney crushed Barack Obama by 14% in 2012, so this, coupled with the fact that she couldn’t beat now Senator Joe Donnelly in 2010 of all years, makes Walorski one of the weakest republican incumbents in the House. The democrats should be going after her with hammer and tongs, and they got a pretty good candidate in Notre Dame administrator Joseph Bock. Bock hails from the democratic bastion of the district in South Bend, and has $277k in the bank, which should allow him to compete in the fall. Very few people saw this as a pickup opportunity for Dems in 2012, and had Mullen gotten a little more national support he probably would’ve won. Watch this one, I’m telling you.
Rating – Lean R
IN-3 – Justin Kuhnle vs Marlin Stutzman-inc
The Fort Wayne-based 3rd is one of the most republican districts in Indiana. Marlin Stutzman isn’t a terribly strong incumbent but I don’t see him having any trouble here.
Rating – Safe R
IN-4 – John Dale vs Todd Rokita-inc
Incumbent republican Todd Rokita is a pretty astute politician, and he sits in a very republican district in central Indiana. Democrat John Dale is playing the role of sacrificial lamb here.
Rating – Safe R
IN-5 – Shawn Denney vs Susan Brooks-inc
Another district centered in the cherry red suburbs of Indianapolis, the 5th isn’t exactly fertile territory for Democrats. Susan Brooks should be able to easily dispatch democrat Shawn Denney.
Rating – Safe R
IN-6 – Susan Heitzman vs Luke Messer-inc
The 6th is another very republican district, and it’s another seat where the democrats put up only token opposition. Incumbent Luke Messer should easily hold onto his seat.
Rating – Safe R
IN-7 – Andre Carson-inc vs Catherine Ping
The Indianapolis-based 7th is a solidly democratic district. Andre Carson won’t have any trouble making it back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
IN-8 – Tom Spangler vs Larry Bucshon-inc
The 8th district in southwestern Indiana was once so competitive that many have referred to it as the “Bloody Eighth”. Incumbent Larry Bucshon did have a mildly competitive 10% win over democrat Dave Crooks in 2012, but I’m not expecting anything competitive this cycle. Democrat Tom Spangler is underfunded and outgunned.
Rating – Safe R
IN-9 – Bill Bailey vs Todd Young-inc
The 9th district is another seat that has been competitive in the recent past. On paper, the Democrats drew a challenger with a good political profile in former Seymour mayor Bill Bailey. The issue for Bailey is that he doesn’t appear to have any fundraising prowess, having just 1k in the bank in April. Republican Todd Young shouldn’t have much trouble unless something fundamentally changes.
Rating – Safe R
IL-1 – Bobby Rush-inc vs Jimmy Tillman
We move into Illinois now, and the 1st district takes in part of the Chicago metroplex, thus making it massively democratic. Bobby Rush will cruise.
Rating – Safe D
IL-2 – Robin Kelly-inc vs Eric Wallace
The 2nd district takes in southeastern Chicago and counties along the Indiana border. Democrat Robin Kelly shouldn’t have any trouble retaining her seat.
Rating – Safe D
IL-3 – Daniel Lipinski-inc vs Sharon Brannigan
The 3rd district is nicknamed the Madigan-mander, as it was drawn as a sink of blue dog-ish, white democrats in southwestern Chicago meant to re-elect incumbent Daniel Lipinski. It’s only marginally democratic in PVI but Lipinski is a very strong incumbent, and will easily beat republican Sharon Brannigan.
Rating – Safe D
IL-4 – Luis Gutierrez-inc vs Hector Concepcion
The 4th district is a snake of a seat that connects Hispanic neighborhoods in western Chicago. It’s one of the most democratic districts in the nation, so democratic incumbent Luis Gutierrez will easily win re-election.
Rating – Safe D
IL-5 – Mike Quigley-inc vs Vince Kolber
The 5th district is another very blue district, this one on Chicago’s north side. Incumbent Mike Quigley will make quick work of republican Vince Kolber.
Rating – Safe D
IL-6 – Michael Mason vs Peter Roskam-inc
The 6th district is a republican vote sink west of Chicago, mostly in DuPage County. The democrats made this a republican seat in order to make other districts like the 8th, 10th, and 11th more solidly democratic so they could be picked up. As a result, republican Peter Roskam, who is a strong incumbent in his own right, doesn’t have much to worry about. Democrat Michael Mason will try to beat him, but he is without resources.
Rating – Safe R
IL-7 – Danny Davis-inc vs Richard Bumpers
The 7th district takes in downtown Chicago, and is one of the most democratic districts in the nation. Danny Davis will go back to Congress without fail.
Rating – Safe D
IL-8 – Tammy Duckworth-inc vs Lawrence Kaifesh
The 8th district in 2012 saw odious republican incumbent Joe Walsh meet his end at the hands of Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth. Her victory was just 10%, a 6% underperformance of Obama’s 16% win over Romney, but these districts in the Chicago suburbs do have some ancestral republican tendencies. That being said, republican Lawrence Kaifesh doesn’t appear to be much of a challenge. Notably, he has just 51k in the bank to Duckworth’s 1.36 million. Duckworth should win this one easily.
Rating – Safe D
IL-9 – Jan Schakowsky-inc vs Susanne Atanus
The 9th district is another democratic bastion based in northern Chicago. Not only does incumbent Jan Schakowsky have an easy district, but she’s going up against a complete whackjob in tea partier Susanne Atanus. This one will be a big blowout for Team Blue.
Rating – Safe D
IL-10 – Brad Schneider-inc vs Bob Dold
The 10th district, which you could call the “Bloody Tenth”, has been the site of many competitive races of late. 2012’s was a thriller, which saw Brad Schneider pull out a gerrymandering induced 1% win over incumbent republican Bob Dold. Undeterred, Dold is looking to win his seat back, and he’s a very powerful politician with a lot of money in the bank, 1.65 million in fact. Not to be outdone, Schneider has 1.90 million in the bank and has PVI on his side, as this seat is about D+6. In a normal year, that’s on the fringes of what a republican could possibly hope to win. Right now I’m going to be cautious and put this race in the competitive zone because of Dold’s prowess as a campaigner…but I would be stunned if a republican could pick off a non-tainted Dem incumbent in a D+6 district in a non-wave year.
Rating – Lean D
IL-11 – Bill Foster-inc vs Darlene Senger
The 11th used to be a marginal district, but it was changed in redistricting to be a democratic district. At D+7, its not exactly fertile ground for republicans. Republican Darlene Senger was initially touted by the NRCC, but she has just 150k in the bank to Foster’s 1.39 million. Given that, the PVI, and the fact that Foster crushed former incumbent Judy Biggert by 17% in 2012, I can’t see how this is competitive.
Rating – Safe D
IL-12 – Bill Enyart-inc vs Mike Bost
The 12th district is a marginally democratic district, but one that is turning somewhat rightward. The democratic incumbent is Bill Enyart, who won this open seat in 2012 by 9%, a pretty strong performance considering Barack Obama only won by 2% over Mitt Romney. Republican state representative Mike Bost has a strong profile and is looking for a chance to pick up this seat. He’s off to a good fundraising start, collecting $348k in his bank account to Enyart’s $677k. I’d like to say that Enyart is a strong enough incumbent for this not to be a toss up race, but given the rightward pull lately in downstate Illinois and the close fundraising race, there’s good reason for Team Blue to be concerned. I see this being a real battle, and the GOP’s best shot at a pickup in Illinois.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D
IL-13 – Ann Callis vs Rodney Davis-inc
The 13th district connects many of the cities in downstate Illinois, and is pretty even in terms of PVI, maybe a point or two toward the republicans. Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama here by .3%, one of the closest congressional districts in the country in 2012, and the congressional race was just as tight, with Rodney Davis beating democrat David Gill by the same .3%. Given this, you know this district will be hard fought once again. The democratic candidate is former Illinois appeals court chief judge Ann Callis. She has a very strong profile and has been fundraising very well and holds an impressive $717k in the bank as of Q2, though that trails Davis’s 1.33 million. As with the neighboring 12th, the overall trend in downstate Illinois isn’t that positive for Team Blue, and that is just enough to say that Davis will hang on. That being said, this is a great pickup opportunity for the democrats, and Callis well could win.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R
IL-14 – Dennis Anderson vs Randy Hultgren-inc
This is just the 2nd legit republican district in Illinois we’ve seen so far, and it features a rematch of 2012, with democrat Dennis Anderson looking to improve on his 17% defeat. I expect Randy Hultgren to win by at least that and maybe more this time around.
Rating – Safe R
IL-15 – Eric Thorsland vs John Shimkus-inc
This is the most republican district in Illinois, and should be an easy seat for incumbent John Shimkus to hold onto.
Rating – Safe R
IL-16 – Randall Olsen vs Adam Kinzinger-inc
There’s not really much to see here, even though the seat is just R+6. Incumbent Adam Kinzinger is a very strong politician, and it’s very hard to see democrat Randall Olsen getting close to him in this contest.
Rating – Safe R
IL-17 – Cheri Bustos-inc vs Bobby Schilling
The 17th was the site of another gerrymandering induced victory for Team Blue, as Cheri Bustos knocked off republican incumbent Bobby Schilling by 6%. At D+7, it’s not exactly fertile territory for republicans, but Schilling is back for another go in 2014. He’s got obvious name recognition plus $500k in the bank, though that pales compared to Bustos’s 1.47 million. Maybe Schilling thinks he can do better this time around in a better year for his party than 2012, but he’s fighting against incumbency now, and knocking out an incumbent on such blue territory is a hard sell for any republican.
Rating – Likely D
IL-18 – Darrel Miller vs Aaron Schock-inc
The final seat in Illinois is a blood red one held by incumbent Aaron Schock. He won’t have any trouble holding onto it in November.
Rating – Safe R
WI-1 - ??? vs Paul Ryan-inc
We head into the Badger State now, and we start in Paul Ryan’s district. This seat in southeast WI is about R+3, but Ryan is about as powerful an incumbent as you can think of. 2012 candidate Rob Zerban and filmmaker Amir Kaleka are battling for the right to face Ryan, but this seat will stay red for sure.
Rating – Safe R
WI-2 – Mark Pocan-inc vs Peter Theron
The Madison-based 2nd district is a major democratic stronghold. Mark Pocan won’t have any trouble keeping this seat blue in November.
Rating – Safe D
WI-3 – Ron Kind-inc vs ???
This district in southwestern Wisconsin is not all that democratic at roughly D+4, but it does feature a powerful incumbent in Ron Kind. Three Some Dudes are running in the republican primary for a shot at Kind, but given that the incumbent won by nearly 30% last time around, I don’t see this being close.
Rating – Safe D
WI-4 – Gwen Moore-inc vs ???
The Milwaukee-based 4th district is the most democratic district in Wisconsin. Incumbent Gwen Moore, short of getting stuck with a freezer full of laundered cash, will be heading back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D
WI-5 – Chris Rockwood vs Jim Sensenbrenner-inc
Oh Wauke$ha County, how we don’t love thee.
Rating – Safe R
WI-6 – Open seat race
It’s been a while since we’ve run across an open seat contest, but we get one here as Tom Petri is retiring. A sizeable field of strong politicians has jumped at the chance to take the open seat. For the republicans, state senators Glenn Grothman and Joseph Leibham, and state representative Duey Stroebel have all jumped in. For the democrats, Winnebago County Executive Mark Harris is in the race. Looking at fundraising, none of the candidates have impressive totals in the bank, but with the primary round next week that’s to be expected. I’ll have to look at this one again after the primary round, but with an R+4 PVI, the republican that comes out of the primary has to be favored.
Rating – Likely R
WI-7 - ??? vs Sean Duffy-inc
The 7th district covers most of northwestern Wisconsin. It’s a seat that Mitt Romney won by 3% in 2012 over Barack Obama, but incumbent Sean Duffy did much better, beating democrat Pat Kreitlow by a surprisingly large 11%. Democrats Kelly Westlund and Mike Krsiean are battling for a shot to take on Duffy in November. Westlund is a city councilor and did have about 100k in the bank as of April, so she’s a definite step above a Some Dude. DKE isn’t tracking any fundraising data on this district and Ballotpedia doesn’t have July listed yet. I’ll have to look at this again after the primary. Right now a D pickup doesn’t look likely, but they’d have a small chance if Westlund wins the primary.
Rating – Likely R
WI-8 – Ron Gruett vs Reid Ribble-inc
The Green Bay-based 8th is our final Great Lakes district, and incumbent Reid Ribble has proven to be quite capable, winning here by 12% in 2012 despite Romney only beating Obama by a little under 4%. Democrat Ron Gruett will take his best shot, but he won’t get far without resources against a skilled incumbent like Ribble.
Rating – Safe R
So we've gone through all 5 of the Great Lakes states, and I'm sorry to say that I don't currently see any seats changing hands. Probably the most likely seat in the region to change hands is IL-13, followed closely by MI-7, but I just don't feel confident enough at this time to swing those seats into the democratic column. Republicans in the region are pretty much maxed out, so their aim will be to maintain their advantage as opposed to playing offense. Really IL-12 is the only seat in the whole region I could see them picking up.
The national swing stays D+1 through the first four regions. Next diary up I'll have coverage of the Interior Southeast, a broad region that extends from West Virginia to Texas.