Hello DKE'ers, and welcome again to StephenCLE's House Ratings. Today, we continue our trip across the United States. Our destination today is the Gulf Coast region.
Region 6 – The Gulf Coast
Much like the Eastern Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast region is one in which the republicans basically maxed out their victories in 2010. However, unlike the Eastern Great Lakes, which have a lot of marginal seats held by the GOP, this region has very few if any at all. Team Blue will have to pick their spots and hope for a lot of conservadem votes in R+ districts that Obama won’t get in order to pick up seats.
The Gulf Coast region consists of the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. We’ll start in Alabama. Before we do though, here’s the rundown of the other regions thus far. Two things to note…I am now including a ½ seat reduction in the national swing for any seat a party has seen disappear in redistricting. Likewise, for new seats newly created, a party can only gain a ½ seat back since it is not a true pickup. This will cause some changes to my national score, most of it beneficial to the GOP.
Also, there are a slew of ratings changes, and all are favorable for the Democrats. The first one is in NY-27. I originally had Chris Collins picking up this seat for the GOP, but after some negative press about Collins and some consternation amongst republicans that this isn’t the slam dunk they thought it was, I now have Kathy Hochul holding the seat for the Democrats. The rating there now stands at Toss Up/Tilt Democratic. The second rating change is in MI-11, which saw Paulist republican Kerry Bentvolio win the republican primary there, while a sterling democratic challenger, Syed Taj, won his primary against a LaRouche disciple. The result of this is that despite the district’s lean, Taj is now favored to pick up the seat. The rating moves to Lean Democratic.
The third rating change is in PA-12, where internal polling shows Mark Critz ahead of Keith Rothfus by 10 points, but more importantly shows Critz at the 50% mark. I view House internals with a tremendous grain of salt, and I still think this race will be tight ultimately, but for now this ancestrally democratic, nationally republican seat moves back into the blue column at Toss Up/Tilt Democratic.
Northeast:
Democrats pick up NH-1, NH-2, NY-24 – lose one seat in redistricting in MA
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – Democrats +2.5
Mid-Atlantic:
Democrats pick up NJ-3, MD-6 – lose one seat in redistricting each in PA and NJ
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – Democrats +1
Upper South:
Democrats pick up no seats
Republicans pick up NC-7, NC-8, NC-11
Swing – Republicans +3
South Atlantic:
Democrats pick up FL-18, win new seats in FL-9 and FL-22
Republicans pick up no seats, win new seat in SC-7
Swing – Democrats +1.5
Eastern Great Lakes:
Democrats pick up OH-16, MI-1 MI-11, lose one seat in redistricting in MI
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – Democrats +2.5
Current National Score – Democrats +4.5
AL-1 – This district centered on Mobile is quite red at R+14. Representative Jo Bonner is running unopposed aside from an independent whom he’ll beat handily.
Rating – Safe R
AL-2 – This district has been the site of some really epic battles the past two cycles. 2010’s battle between Bobby Bright and Martha Roby was decided by 2%, and Bright would’ve likely survived anything but a republican wave election. That’s very impressive given that this seat is extremely red at R+19. As it is, Bright is not gunning for a rematch, and Roby’s only opposition is an unknown in Therese Ford. After 2010’s fight, Roby’s a lock this year.
Rating – Safe R
AL-3 – This district was the site of some close battles in 2006 and 2008, but Mike Rogers (not to be confused with the Mike Rogers from MI-8), shouldn’t have to fight too hard this year. This eastern Alabama seat is turning redder by the year too.
Rating – Safe R
AL-4 – This is one of the most republican districts in the country at R+22. Robert Aderholt is the representative here and should win easily. Ironically, the democrats got a solid recruit here in state representative Daniel Boman. His candidacy is little more than a suicide mission though.
Rating – Safe R
AL-5 – This is another ancestrally democratic seat that has zoomed rightward in recent years. This was the seat that saw Parker Griffith go from being a democrat to a republican and get ousted in the 2010 primary by Mo Brooks. Brooks looks like a lock for re-election as little known Dem Charlie Holley is his only opponent.
Rating – Safe R
AL-6 – This is probably the most republican district in the whole country, filled with suburbs and exurbs of Birmingham. Democrat Penny Bailey will nevertheless try to get north of 25% here against Spencer Bachus.
Rating – Safe R
AL-7 – The lone democratic seat in Alabama, and we probably only have it because of the VRA, this seat takes in the west of the state plus parts of Birmingham and Montgomery. Terri Sewell is the democratic incumbent, and she will win re-election with ease against republican Don Chamberlain.
Rating – Safe D
MS-1 – This was the district of Travis Childers, chair of the SSP Mustache Caucus following his 2008 win. He was swept out in the 2010 red wave, and Alan Nunnelee is the GOP rep. Democrat Brad Morris is out to defeat him, but his lackluster fundraising has me thinking this race isn’t going anywhere.
Rating – Safe R
MS-2 – This seat in western Mississippi is a VRA one, and Bennie Thompson should have no trouble with re-election. Race tracker says republican Bill Marcy has raised…wait for it…$181. Not 181k, $181.
Rating – Safe D
MS-3 – Gregg Harper sits in a very republican district in central Mississippi. His opponent in November is unheralded democrat Crystal Biggs.
Rating – Safe R
MS-4 – This district is under new management following a long run by democrat Gene Taylor. Republican Steven Palazzo is the representative, and in all honesty, I think he has this extremely red seat as long as he wants it. Democrat Michael Herrington is in the race, but he’ll be crushed.
Rating – Safe R
Louisiana Redistricting – We now come to a rare state in which the republicans lost one of their seats in redistricting, as LA lost one red seat, so the democrats get a ½ seat gain.
National Score – Democrats +5
LA-1 – Moving into Louisiana now, we find yet another crazy red seat. Steve Scalise is unopposed.
Rating – Safe R
LA-2 – Cedric Richmond holds a racially gerrymandered seat that runs from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. He’s a lock.
Rating – Safe D
LA-3 – This is an incumbent vs incumbent mashup, as Charles Boustany holds this southwestern Louisiana district, and won’t have any trouble holding it unless he loses the primary to fellow rep Jeff Landry. No democrat is running.
Rating – Safe R
LA-4 – Believe it or not, at R+11, this is the least republican of the republican districts in Louisiana. John Fleming is the representative here, and he’ll be up against one of three nameless democrats following the jungle primary.
Rating – Safe R
LA-5 – Rodney Alexander is unopposed. Not a tragedy, since nobody was going to beat him anyway.
Rating – Safe R
LA-6 – This seat became redder in redistricting as the democrats in Baton Rouge got moved to LA-2. Bill Cassidy is safe.
Rating – Safe R
TX-1 - Moving into Texas now, and this rural eastern district used to be a democratic district, but like so much of Texas’s rural expanse, it is now dark red. Louie Gohmert will be back for another term.
Rating – Safe R
TX-2 – Ted Poe represents some suburban and exurban territory north of Houston, and its very red as well. He’s safe.
Rating – Safe R
TX-3 – This seat rests within Collin County, an exurban part of the metroplex which is starting to turn leftwards but still has a long way to go. Case in point, GOP rep Sam Johnson is unopposed.
Rating – Safe R
TX-4 – Ralph Hall’s district sits in the northeastern corner of Texas, and its an easy hold. Perennial democratic candidate Valinda Hathcox is in the race, but she’ll be crushed.
Rating – Safe R
TX-5 – This semi-rural, semi-suburban seat is held by Jeb Hensarling. It’s another hugely GOP district and an easy hold. The democratic candidate is Linda Mrosko, and she’ll fight to get above 30% maybe.
Rating – Safe R
TX-6 – This district stretches from south of Dallas up in between Dallas and Forth Worth, taking in several suburban cities including Arlington. It moved a little bit in redistricting to 42% Obama, which prompted several democrats to get into the primary. However, I don’t think Joe Barton will be pushed too much. His challenger, Kenneth Sanders, is cashless.
Rating – Safe R
TX-7 – This district is another that is slowly turning leftward, sitting just west and northwest of Houston, but it still has a long way to go to be competitive. John Culberson should win re-election easily against underfunded challenger James Cargas.
Rating- Safe R
TX-8 – Kevin Brady’s district is 70% McCain, one the most republican in the whole country. He’s safe.
Rating – Safe R
TX-9 – Al Green’s Houston-based district is 76% Obama, one of the most democratic in Texas. He’ll have no trouble winning re-election against republican Steve Mueller.
Rating – Safe D
TX-10 – Michael McCaul’s district is another in Texas that appears to be moving leftward, but it got somewhat more red in redistricting, moving to 56% McCain from 54%. The democratic candidate here is Tawana Cadien, who has raised…wait for it…$100 so far this cycle.
Rating – Safe R
TX-11 – Moving in west Texas now, this is Mike Conaway’s district. At just 23% Obama, this might as well be a nuclear exclusion zone for Team Blue.
Rating – Safe R
TX-12 – Kay Granger’s seat consists mostly of suburbs and exurbs to the west of Fort Worth. At R+18, she has very little to worry about.
Rating – Safe R
TX-13 – Now we hit the top of the panhandle. Mac Thornberry is the representative here, and honestly, we should be thankful he isn’t as bad as Michelle Bachmann or Allen West, because this is about as red as red gets.
Rating – Safe R
TX-14 - This coastal district stretches from Beaumont down through Galveston and into Brazoria County. It’s Ron Paul’s seat, but he’s retiring, which has surprisingly yielded a battle. State representative Randy Weber is the republican candidate, but the democratic candidate is former congressman Nick Lampson. Right now Lampson is leading the cash on hand race 3-to-1 at 334k to 110k, and he’s no stranger to competing and winning on red turf. Weber is still favored because of the district’s partisan lean, but don’t expect Lampson to go quietly.
Rating – Leans Republican
TX-15 – This district is one of the so-called “fajita strips” in south Texas, a VRA seat centered on McAllen. At 57% Obama and trending leftward, Hinojosa looks to be pretty safe, especially since republican Dave Bruggermann hasn’t raised much of any cash.
Rating – Safe D
TX-16 – This district centered on El Paso featured a rarity, a democratic incumbent going down in a primary, as rep Silvestre Reyes lost the primary to Robert O’Rourke, a former city councilman. The republicans would ideally like to capitalize on this but they have a little known challenger in Corey Roen. The district is 64% Obama, so not really competitive.
Rating – Safe D
TX-17 – This was the seat of one Chet Edwards, the master of being a fairly liberal guy that could win on some really red turf. He was swept out in the 2010 wave though, and Bill Flores is the representative now. Ironically, this seat became much more democratic in redistricting (to 41% Obama from 32%) and if Edwards came back he could probably win. Alas he didn’t, and no other Dem stepped forward, so Flores is unopposed.
Rating – Safe R
TX-18 – Back over to Houston now. Sheila Jackson-Lee is the democrat representing this VRA seat, and she will continue to do so after 2012.
Rating – Safe D
TX-19 – Another district in the vast empty parts of west Texas. Randy Neugebauer is the GOP rep here, and he’s unopposed.
Rating – Safe R
TX-20 – Now we head to San Antonio, where Charlie Gonzalez represents a democratic vote sink within Bexar County. He’s retiring, but State representative Joaquin Castro has stepped forward for Team Blue, and has fundraised over a million dollars this cycle. At just 58% Obama, the district was weakened in redistricting, but the GOP candidat, David Rosa, is unknown and cashless. Somewhat of a recruiting fail here for the GOP.
Rating – Safe D
TX-21 – Lamar Smith holds a strongly republican seat between the desert west and San Antonio, and doesn’t have much in the way of opposition. He’s through for another term.
Rating – Safe R
TX-22 – This seat south and southwest of Houston is home to Pete Olson. He is a republican in a reliably red district. The democratic candidate is LaRouchite Kesha Rogers, and needless to say, she won’t be winning.
Rating – Safe R
TX-23 – This is a very swingy seat in the southwestern part of the state. It covers a lot of rural territory between San Antonio and El Paso. Cook calls it R+6, which I question since Obama won it 50-49. Republican representative Francisco Canseco is in a bit of a pinch competitively, but has fundraised very well, reaching 1.735 million raised and nearly 900k on hand. His competition is democratic state rep Pete Gallego, who just went through a rough primary battle against former rep Ciro Rodriguez, which has completely worn Gallego out financially. At this point Canseco has the upper hand, but if Gallego can recover financially and campaign well this seat could well turn over.
Rating – Leans Republican
TX-24 – Back into Tarrant County now, and Kenny Marchant represents a strongly republican district of mostly suburban territory. The democratic candidate is a cashless nobody named Tim Rusk.
Rating – Safe R
TX-25 – This is a new seat that consists of mostly rural territory between Fort Worth and Austin, though its population base is in suburban Austin. The seat was 56% McCain in 2008, so a republican will likely win it. Former Texas secretary of state Roger Williams will take on democrat Elaine Henderson in the general. Williams, despite a deeply disputed primary, has a huge cash on hand advantage.
Rating – Safe R (new district win)
National Score – Democrats +4.5
TX-26 – This district is centered on heavily Republican Denton County, and Michael Burgess is the GOP rep here. He’s safe.
Rating – Safe R
TX-27 – This seat has expanded far to the north and takes in more rural territory, but is still centered on Corpus Christi. Freshman GOP rep Blake Farenthold is the representative, and sitting in an R+13 district, he shouldn’t have much to worry about. However, he only has 20k in the bank and trails the democratic candidate, Nueces County district attorney Rose Meza Harrison in that department. I don’t know how much I should read into that or how much his district changing geographically might be a problem, but his lack of cash is almost unique amongst incumbent republicans this cycle.
Rating – Likely Republican
TX-28 – This is a fairly swingish seat in the Rio Grande Valley, but Henry Cuellar is fairly entrenched. His opposition is very little this cycle as well, as cashless nobody William Hayward is looking to unseat him. Not likely.
Rating – Safe D
TX-29 – Gene Green represents some blue territory in Houston. He’s unopposed.
Rating – Safe D
TX-30 – Eddie Bernice Johnson’s district takes in central Dallas and most of its inner core. She’s safe.
Rating – Safe D
TX-31 – This seat is centered on northern Austin suburbs in Williamson and Bell counties. John Carter is the republican representative here, and though this district is still 56% McCain, it is moving rapidly to the left, so much so that in a few election cycles it might be competitive. This year though, Carter is a heavy favorite over democrat Stephen Wyman.
Rating – Safe R
TX-32 – Pete Sessions’s district lies just north of Dallas, and used to be in solidly red territory but that land is shifting leftward. He got shored up a bit in redistricting to just 44% Obama from 46%, but this is another seat where you might see competition later this decade. Right now though, Katherine McGovern has a very high hill to climb in order to beat Sessions.
Rating – Safe R
TX-33 – This is a new Hispanic majority seat in D/FW, a seat basically created by the Obama DOJ when they sued Texas’s new maps in 2010. It is 69% Obama, so Marc Veasey, the winner of the democratic primary, should be a shoo-in over republican primary victor Charles Bradley.
Rating – Safe D (new seat pickup)
National Score – Democrats +2
TX-34 – This is another new district. It is one of the fajita strips and a VRA district, this one centered on Brownsville and Harligen. The runoff in the democratic primary was between Filemon Vela and Denise Blanchard, and race tracker does not say who the victor was. Ditto for the republican primary runoff between Adela Garza and Jessica Bradshaw. What I do know is that this seat is marginally democratic at D+3, and that the fundraising on all sides has been very weak except for Vela, who is tapped out from the primary round. This seat is trending leftward, and given the current partisan lean, Team Blue is favored here.
Rating – Likely Democratic (new district pickup)
National Score – Democrats +5.5
TX-35 – This is a VRA seat that runs from Austin to San Antonio. This was basically an attempt to get rid of Lloyd Doggett, but Doggett survived the primary round despite the racial breakdown of the district and will certainly win this solidly D seat in November. The repu
Rating – Safe D
TX-36 – This is the final district in Texas and the last new district. Unlike the previous two, this one is very heavily republican, centered on rural territory in East Texas. Former congressman Steve Stockman won the GOP primary here and will surely win in November over sacrificial lamb Max Martin.
Rating – Safe R (new district pickup)
National Score – Democrats +5
Region Roundup – Well, after all that, what do we have? Bupkus. As of now, I don’t see a single seat changing hands in this region of the US, and in fact, there’s really only one seat that’s even competitive at the moment, that being TX-23. Ultimately, the Democrats get a +.5 because the republicans saw one of their seats disappear in Louisiana, so its better than nothing. The four new seats in Texas got allocated 2-2, so no change there.
Ultimately this leaves the Democrats up by 5 seats from 2010 after 6 regions…but still with a lot of work to do to reclaim the majority. However, the next region, the Western Great Lakes, might be their region of greatest opportunity. We’ll head there next time.