October 29th Ratings Update – One Week Left!
Before I start this week’s update, let me lend my strength and prayer to those affected by Hurricane Sandy. Even though I’m from Ohio, this storm had a profound effect on me personally as I have many relatives and family living in greater Philadelphia. In fact, each year many of us vacation down in the jersey shore town of Sea Isle City. If that place sounds familiar to any of you, it should, because Sea Isle City is where the eye of Hurricane Sandy made landfall yesterday. I have only a few pictures to go by as to the destruction that has occurred there, what I do know is that the entire island has been flooded and many of the buildings were ripped apart by the 90-mph sustained winds near the center. All along the east coast it is obvious that this storm has done immense damage in terms of flooding, straight-line winds, power outages, blocked roads, and much more.
To all DKE’ers impacted by this monstrous hurricane, I feel for you all tonight.
Presidential:
This was a pretty solid week for Barack Obama overall, as he solidified his advantage in the swing states to a degree. His aggregate lead right now is 4 in Wisconsin and Nevada, 3 in New Hampshire, Iowa, and Ohio, 2 in Virginia, and 1 in Colorado. Virtually everybody, including the republicans outside of a few loony bins like Karl Rove and Dick Morris, agree that Obama has 237 electoral votes in the bag. Romney actually is only down 5 in Pennsylvania, 6 in Michigan, 7 in Oregon, and 8 in Minnesota, but to come back from 5+ down in the final week when you’ve barely contested any of these states throughout the campaign…well it just doesn’t happen.
Romney right now has 191 electoral votes in the bag. The closest non swing state on the republican side is Arizona, where Romney’s aggregate lead is 7. The others are Georgia and Montana, where he leads by 8, and Missouri where he leads by 9. But given the aggregate totals I just laid out earlier, Romney is only leading in two swing states, Florida and North Carolina. Those only get him to 235. From there, he needs Virginia and Colorado surely, and the polls are very close in those states and indeed, the GOP feels they are ahead there even though the total aggregate says no. But if Romney gets those two, that only nets him 257 EVs. He would then need to do one of three things to win.
1. Win Ohio. That would get Romney to 277 EVs and a victory.
2. Win Wisconsin and 1 other state of Nevada, Iowa, or New Hampshire. This would get Romney 273 with WI + NV or IA, or 270 exactly with Wisconsin + New Hampshire
3. Find a way to pull an upset in one of the Lean Democratic states, like Michigan or Pennsylvania. Michigan would give Romney 273 EVs, Pennsylvania 277 EVs.
Option #3 is essentially the Dick Morris strategy, and would be predicated on the idea that somehow the pollsters are way off in those states and that late momentum there would put Romney over the top. But it’s unrealistic. The strategy Romney seems to have resigned himself to is Option #1, win Ohio. It is the simplest and most straightforward strategy, but it is a difficult one as Obama has led virtually all polls in Ohio and has a 3% aggregate lead.
One thing is certain, with just 6 days left until the polls open, I would much rather be in Barack Obama’s position than Mitt Romney’s, regardless of what the largely irrelevant national polls say. (The National polls are likely to be screwy in the final week anyway since many northeastern folks aren’t likely to be answering their phones due to Sandy)
Electoral vote distribution:
Safe D – VT, MA, RI, NY, DE, MD, DC, IL, CA, HI – 142 EV
Likely D – ME, CT, NJ, WA – 37 EV
Lean D – PA, MI, MN, NM, OR – 58 EV
Toss Up/Tilt D – NH, VA, OH, WI, IA, CO, NV – 66 EV
Toss Up/Tilt R – NC, FL – 44 EV
Lean R – GA, MO, MT, AZ – 40 EV
Likely R – SC, IN, ND, SD – 26 EV
Safe R – WV, KY, TN, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX, OK, KS, NE, WY, ID, UT, AK – 125 EV
Total Obama EV - 303
Total Romney EV – 235
The Map:
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Popular Vote Projection:
National – Obama 50.11%, Romney 48.57%
DC – Obama 89-9
Hawaii – Obama 66-33
Vermont – Obama 64-35
New York – Obama 62-36
Rhode Island – Obama 61-37
Maryland – Obama 59-39
Illinois – Obama 59-40
Delaware – Obama 59-40
Massachusetts – Obama 59-40
California – Obama 57-42
Washington – Obama 56-43
New Jersey – Obama 55-44
Maine – Obama 55-44
Connecticut – Obama 54-44
New Mexico – Obama 54-45
Minnesota – Obama 53-45
Oregon – Obama 53-46
Michigan – Obama 52-46
Pennsylvania – Obama 52-47
Nevada – Obama 51-47
Wisconsin – Obama 51-47
New Hampshire – Obama 51-48
Ohio – Obama 51-48
Iowa – Obama 51-48
Virginia – Obama 50-48
Colorado – Obama 50-49
North Carolina – Romney 50-49
Florida – Romney 50-49
Arizona – Romney 53-46
Georgia – Romney 53-45
Montana – Romney 53-45
Missouri – Romney 54-45
Indiana – Romney 56-43
South Carolina – Romney 56-43
South Dakota – Romney 57-41
North Dakota – Romney 57-41
Mississippi – Romney 57-41
Louisiana – Romney 57-41
Texas – Romney 58-41
Nebraska – Romney 58-41
Kansas – Romney 58-41
Alaska – Romney 58-40
Kentucky – Romney 59-40
Tennessee – Romney 59-39
West Virginia – Romney 61-38
Arkansas – Romney 61-38
Alabama – Romney 63-36
Oklahoma – Romney 64-35
Wyoming – Romney 66-33
Idaho – Romney 66-33
Utah – Romney 73-26
Senate:
If there is one area where the Democrats have some serious mojo, it is in the Senate. The Republicans are in complete disarray, as not one, but two Senate hopefuls in Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock have seen their campaigns come apart over their comments about rape. Mourdock’s position isn’t quite as dire as Akin’s, but he’s now trailing Joe Donnelly in Indiana. Add that seat to the pile of success for the democrats, buoyed by the likeable and popular Heidi Heitkamp, who has run the race of her life and looks poised to upset republican Rick Berg in North Dakota. Then there’s Montana, where democrat Jon Tester has dug into the trenches and has refused to concede an inch despite the fact that Barack Obama is losing to Mitt Romney there. Tester and republican Denny Rehberg are in a virtual dead heat, Tester leads by 1 in the current aggregate.
Republican candidates appear to have failed in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Florida, and Ohio, as all four of those races are firmly in lean democratic territory now. Pennsylvania has had a bit of a republican trend lately but executive Tom Smith had so far to come back that at best he’s going to run out of time. Therefore, the republican ceiling is 50 seats. The democratic ceiling for much of the past month has been 57 seats, but we’re starting to see polling in Nebraska (Yes, Nebraska!) that suggests that former democratic senator Bob Kerrey has a ton of momentum against republican Deb Fischer. Fischer’s aggregate lead has gone from 11 to just 5 in a week. If that trend were to continue, maybe the democratic ceiling is actually 58 seats. That being said, a Kerrey win on election night would be a spectacular upset.
Looking at all the toss-up races, in Virginia, Tim Kaine leads George Allen. The former democratic governor has had this one close to Lean D territory for weeks now. Allen is still theoretically alive, but would need a huge comeback late to win. I put Indiana as the next most likely win for Team Blue as Mourdock’s trajectory is down, down, down following his rape comments. Donnelly leads by 2 in the aggregate, whereas Mourdock led by 2 last week. I’m starting to become confident that despite the state’s obvious republican lean, democrat Heidi Heitkamp is going to win in North Dakota as Rick Berg is just too unpopular and hasn’t run nearly as strong a campaign. On the opposite side, I still feel somewhat confident that republican Jeff Flake will hold off a strong challenge from former surgeon general democrat Richard Carmona. That race has been close, but Flake has a 2 point lead in the aggregate.
The final three races really are coin flips. In Wisconsin, one of the few races with a republican trajectory, former republican governor Tommy Thompson appears to have some momentum against democrat Tammy Baldwin. Baldwin still leads in the aggregate by 1, but boy is it looking shaky. In Montana, the battle between Tester and Rehberg has been so close all election cycle, and indeed we may be headed for a recount there. Lastly in Nevada, acting republican senator Dean Heller continues to lead democratic representative Shelley Berkley, but his aggregate lead is down to 1. As we all know, any republican in Nevada that isn’t leading by at least 4 or 5 going into election night has reason to be very worried, as pollsters typically undersell democratic performance there and have done so each of the last 2 election cycles. Its possible that we could have a recount there too.
Bottom line, I have the democrats winning 55 Senate seats on election night, with 57 a definite possibility. 51 is starting to look like a best case scenario for the republicans.
Seat Breakdown –
Democrats – 30 seats not up for re-election
Safe D – ME, VT, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, WV, MN, CA, WA, HI – 12 seats
Likely D – MI – 1 seat
Lean D – MA, CT, PA, FL, OH, MO, NM – 7 seats
Toss Up/Tilt D – VA, IN, WI, ND, MT, – 5 seats
Toss Up/Tilt R – AZ, NV – 2 seats
Lean R – NE – 1 seat
Likely R –
Safe R – TN, MS, TX, WY, UT – 5 seats
Republicans – 37 seats not up for re-election
Democratic Pickups – ME, MA, IN
Republican Pickups – NE
New Senate Partisan Breakdown – 55 democrats, 45 republicans
Swing – Democrats +2
The Map:
[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG]
Projected vote totals for competitive races:
42 Dem seats safe (30 not up + ME, VT, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, WV, MN, WA, CA, HI)
Michigan – Stabenow 55 – Hoekstra 43
New Mexico – Heinrich 54 – Wilson 45
Florida – Nelson 53 – Mack 45
Missouri – McCaskill 53 – Akin 45
Pennsylvania – Casey 53 – Smith 45
Massachusetts – Warren 53 – Brown 46
Ohio – Brown 52 – Mandel 46
Connecticut – Murphy 52 – McMahon 47
Virginia – Kaine 51 – Allen 47
Indiana – Donnelly 50 – Mourdock 48
North Dakota – Heitkamp 50 – Berg 49
Montana – Tester 50 – Rehberg 49
Wisconsin – Baldwin 50 – Thompson 49
Nevada – Heller 50 – Berkley 49
Arizona – Flake 50 – Carmona 48
Nebraska – Fischer 52 – Kerrey 47
42 GOP seats safe (37 not up + TN, MS, WY, UT, TX)
House:
Boy wow, where do I begin. I’m starting to see some really, really biased numbers in favor of the GOP. Let me start first of all with individual district numbers, and though I’ve seen bad numbers from internal polls on both sides, its been especially bad on the republican side. Two pollsters in particular, OnMessage and Public Opinion Strategies, would have you believe that the republicans are going to win more seats this year than in 2010. Just this past week they had Brendan Doherty, Jim Renacci, and other republicans in the Lean D and Toss Up columns of my rankings winning by wide margins. It doesn’t sound crazy unless you consider that this is the same polling firm that has Wilson beating Heinrich in NM-Sen, and Hinckley within single digits of Sheldon Whitehouse in RI-Sen. In other words, they suck.
With that in mind, I’m not making any more ratings moves based on internal polls, especially not from GOP internal polls. Independent polling of competitive races when we’ve been able to get it looks pretty good for the most part, and by pretty good I mean that it is at least somewhat consistent with the national generic ballot.
But now I’m also starting to see some bias in the national generic ballot too. According to pollster.com, the republicans are back ahead in the generic ballot for the first time since August. Seeing as we’ve had very few firms do generic ballot polling this cycle, Rasmussen is really starting to throw off the numbers. Their R+3 number posted today was the first R lead of more than R+1 in almost a month.
Quite simply, I think we’re starting to see the same divide that we’ve seen for months in the presidential race between national and state polls filtering down to the House level. If you look at polls that ask the generic congressional ballot in states like Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, etc, the democrats are leading more often than not, which isn’t consistent with a republican national lead. This is leading me to believe that like Obama, House Dems will overperform in a lot of the swing states and get pounded in the red states.
So as of now, I’m no longer pegging my projected national vote according to the pollster.com regression, but rather on the national aggregate of all state polling in the presidential race. How big a change is this? Pollster says the national ballot is now R+.2. By that metric, that would lead Team Red with a 2.6% win in the competitive seats when the R+1.2 battleground PVI is factored in, leaving Team Blue with only a 4 seat gain in the House. When the aggregate of state polling is used instead, this gives us a projected national ballot of D+1.6. When the battleground PVI is taken into account, that gives Team Red a much smaller .8% win in the competitive zone, and under this scenario, Team Blue picks up 12 seats, which is much more plausible given that Obama will likely win the presidency and the democrats will gain seats in the Senate.
Man, that was a lot of verbiage. Sorry you all had to sit through that. Bottom line, as of today I project the democrats to pick up 12 seats, a nice gain but well short of a majority.
Projected 2-party vote share – 50.8% democratic, 49.2% republican
Battleground PVI – R+1.2 (the PVI of all 91 competitive districts on the equal area map)
Battleground 2-party vote share – 49.6% democratic, 50.4% republican
New House Partisan Breakdown – 230 republicans, 205 democrats
Swing – Democrats +12
The Equal Area Map:
[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG]
Projected Vote Totals for Competitive Seats: (candidate listed first wins)
158 Safe Democratic Seats
IL-8 – Duckworth 56 – Walsh 44
CA-47 – Lowenthal 56 – DeLong 44
MD-6 - Delany 56 – Bartlett 44
IA-2 – Loebsack 55 – Archer 45
AZ-2 – Barber 55 – McSally 45
CA-3 – Garamendi 55 – Vann 45
FL-9 – Grayson 55 – Long 45
FL-22 – Frankel 55 – Hasner 45
NY-25 – Slaughter 55 – Brooks 45
CA-9 – McNerney 54 – Gill 46
FL-26 – Garcia 54 – Rivera 46
CA-41 – Takano 54 – Tavaglione 46
MN-8 – Nolan 54 – Cravaack 46
CO-7 – Perlmutter 54 – Coors 46
IL-13 – Gill 53 – Davis 47
NH-2 – Kuster 53 – Bass 47
NY-1 – Bishop 53 – Altschuler 47
IL-10 – Schneider 53 – Dold 47
WA-1 – Delbene 53 – Koster 47
CA-26 – Brownley 53 – Strickland 47
IL-11 – Foster 53 – Biggert 47
KY-6 – Chandler 53 – Barr 47
MI-1 – McDowell 53 – Benishek 47
OH-16 – Sutton 53 – Renacci 47
NY-21 – Owens 53 – Doheny 47
NY-24 – Maffei 53 – Buerkle 47
PA-12 – Critz 53 – Rothfus 47
RI-1 – Cicilline 53 – Doherty 47
AZ-9 – Sinema 52 – Parker 48
CA-24 – Capps 52 – Maldonado 48
CT-5 – Esty 52 – Roraback 48
OH-6 – Wilson 52 – Johnson 48
CA-7 – Bera 51 – Lungren 49
CO-6 – Mikloski 51 – Coffman 49
------------------------------------------------------ current House Breakdown (242R, 193D)
IL-12 – Enyart 51 – Plummer 49
NV-4 – Horsford 51 – Tarkanian 49
TX-23 – Gallego 51 – Canseco 49
NH-1 – Shea-Porter 51 – Guinta 49
CA-52 – Peters 51 – Bilbray 49
AZ-1 – Kirkpatrick 51 – Paton 49
FL-18 – Murphy 51 – West 49
IL-17 – Bustos 50 – Schilling 50
FL-2 – Lawson 50 – Southerland 50
NC-7 – McIntyre 50 – Rouzer 50
IA-4 – Vilsack 50 – King 50
MI-3 – Pestka 50 – Amash 50
----------------------------------------------------- prediction line (230 R, 205 D)
NY-27 – Collins 50 – Hochul 50
UT-4 – Love 50 – Matheson 50
FL-10 – Webster 51 – Deming 49
IN-2 – Walorski 51 – Mullen 49
WI-7 – Duffy 51 – Kreitlow 49
IN-8 – Bucshon 51 – Crooks 49
CA-10 – Denham 52 – Hernandez 48
CO-3 – Tipton 52 – Pace 48
MI-11 – Bentivolio 52 – Taj 48
GA-12 – Anderson 52 – Barrow 48
IA-3 – Latham 52 – Boswell 48
CA-21 – Valadao 52 – Hernandez 48
NE-2 – Terry 52 – Ewing 48
----------------------------------------------------- line of majority control (218D, 217 R)
NY-19 – Gibson 52 – Schreibman 48
SD-1 – Noem 52 – Varilek 48
TX-14 – Weber 52 – Lampson 48
MA-6 – Tisei 53 – Tierney 47
NY-11 – Grimm 53 – Murphy 47
PA-8 – Fitzpatrick 53 – Boockvar 47
NY-18 – Hayworth 53 – Maloney 47
CA-36 – Bono-Mack 53 – Ruiz 47
WI-8 – Ribble 53 – Wall 47
MT-1 – Daines 53 – Gillan 47
MN-6 – Bachmann 54 – Graves 46
NV-3 – Heck 54 – Oceguera 46
FL-13 – Young 54 – Ehrlich 46
MI-6 – Upton 54 – O’Brien 46
NC-8 – Hudson 54 – Kissell 46
ND-1 – Cramer 54 – Gulleson 46
PA-6 – Gerlach 54 – Trivedi 46
NJ-3 – Runyan 54 – Adler 46
TN-4 – Desjarlais 54 – Stewart 46
OH-7 – Gibbs 56 – Healy-Abrams 44
FL-16 – Buchanan 56 – Fitzgerald 44
CA-25 – McKeon 56 – Rogers 44
VA-5 – Hurt 56 – Douglass 44
MI-7 – Walberg 57 – Haskell 43
MN-2 – Kline 57 – Obermueller 43
PA-7 – Meehan 57 – Badey 43
IN-9 – Young 57 – Yoder 43
VA-2 – Rigell 57 – Hirschbiel 43
WI-1 – Ryan 57 – Zerban 43
WA-3 – Herrera 57 – Haugen 43
186 Safe Republican Seats
We are now just 6 days away from my final predictions, which come out on Monday 11/5. Can't Wait!!!