September 24th Ratings Update –
Presidential –
This race is starting to get ugly. Barack Obama’s lead is now the biggest it’s been all campaign long. It’s starting to resemble the advantage he had against McCain with just weeks to go in 2008. Perhaps most ominously for Mitt Romney, polling right now is showing that Obama is at or breaking the 50% mark in many battleground states, including Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Some firms even have Obama breaking 50% in Colorado and Florida as well, and indeed those states are in danger of drifting out of toss up and into lean democratic territory too with Obama leading by an aggregate of 4% in each. In all, there are 10 ratings changes this week, with one such change moving a state from the red column to the blue column. That state is North Carolina, where multiple polls showed Obama in the lead this past week.
The longer this trend toward Obama continues, the more I’m inclined to believe that Romney basically needs a hail mary to win. He’s got two chances to turn the tide, either in the debates, or if a negative economic event of some sort were to strike before Election Day. That’s Romney’s potential golden ticket, if a Lehman Brothers-style event that struck in September 2008 and sunk McCain’s candidacy were to arise. But if you’re dependent on that kind of an event to win, that’s not a good place to be.
If however, this polling trend continues, you’re going to see less attention paid to the presidential contest in the final weeks, with the focus turning toward whether the Democrats will hold the Senate or possibly even gain seats, and win back the House of Representatives.
Race Ratings Changes for week of 9/18-9/24:
Maine – from Likely D to Safe D
Connecticut – from Likely D to Safe D
Michigan – from Lean D to Likely D
Pennsylvania – from Lean D to Likely D
Virginia – from Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D
Iowa – from Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D
North Carolina – from Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D
Arizona – from Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R
Nebraska – from Safe R to Likely R
Tennessee – from Safe R to Likely R
Texas – from Safe R to Likely R
Safe D – ME, CT, VT, MA, RI, NY, DE, MD, DC, IL, CA, WA, HI – 165 EV
Likely D – NJ, PA, MI, MN, NM, OR – 72 EV
Lean D – NH, VA, OH, WI, NV – 51 EV
Toss Up/Tilt D – FL, NC, IA, CO – 59 EV
Toss Up/Tilt R – AZ – 9 EV
Lean R – SC, GA, IN, MO, MT – 51 EV
Likely R – TN, TX, ND, SD, AK – 56 EV
Safe R – WV, KY, AL, MS, LA, AR, OK, KS, NE, WY, ID, UT – 75 EV
Total Obama EV - 347
Total Romney EV – 191
The Map:
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Popular Vote Projection:
National – Obama 51.81%, Romney 46.49%
DC – Obama 91-7
Hawaii – Obama 69-30
Vermont – Obama 66-34
New York – Obama 62-37
Rhode Island – Obama 62-37
Maryland – Obama 62-37
Illinois – Obama 61-37
California – Obama 61-38
Massachusetts – Obama 61-38
Delaware – Obama 59-39
Washington – Obama 58-41
Maine – Obama 57-41
Connecticut – Obama 57-41
Oregon – Obama 56-43
New Jersey – Obama 56-43
New Mexico – Obama 55-43
Minnesota – Obama 55-44
Michigan – Obama 55-44
Pennsylvania – Obama 54-44
Nevada – Obama 53-45
Ohio – Obama 52-46
Wisconsin – Obama 52-46
Iowa – Obama 52-46
New Hampshire – Obama 52-47
Virginia – Obama 52-47
Colorado – Obama 51-47
Florida – Obama 51-47
North Carolina – Obama 50-48
Arizona – Romney 51-47
Indiana – Romney 52-47
Montana – Romney 52-47
Georgia – Romney 53-46
Missouri – Romney 53-45
South Carolina – Romney 53-44
Tennessee – Romney 54-43
South Dakota – Romney 55-43
North Dakota – Romney 55-43
Alaska – Romney 55-42
Texas – Romney 56-42
Nebraska – Romney 56-42
Mississippi – Romney 57-41
Kentucky – Romney 58-41
Kansas – Romney 58-41
West Virginia – Romney 58-40
Louisiana – Romney 59-40
Arkansas – Romney 59-39
Alabama – Romney 61-37
Wyoming – Romney 62-36
Idaho – Romney 62-36
Utah – Romney 64-34
Oklahoma – Romney 65-33
Senate –
As with the presidency, there has been a lot of movement in the Senate landscape too. With each passing day the math gets grimmer for Team Red. I still have the Democrats controlling 53 senate seats and the Republicans controlling 47, a wash for this election cycle, however, the overall odds of the Republicans taking over the Senate dropped hugely. Two seats changed hands from the previous week, one in each direction. Republican Denny Rehberg has inched back ahead of Jon Tester in Montana, turning that seat back into a republican pickup. On the flip side, there has been a dramatic turn of events in Wisconsin, where Democrat Tammy Baldwin has rallied from behind to take a solid lead over Republican Tommy Thompson.
Right now we have a total of 7 toss up contests. The bad news for the GOP is that even if they win all 7, that still only brings the Senate breakdown to 50-50, meaning they will need Mitt Romney to win the presidency to gain control. In other words, you’re talking about the unlikeliest of unlikely situations. If however, the democrats sweep and win all 8, they will control 57 Senate seats going into next year, an outcome so incredibly outrageous just months ago that you would’ve had your permission to talk denied if you even suggested it. And to be honest, right now, the democrats sweeping all 7 is much more likely than the republicans doing it, because the GOP is literally hanging on by a thread in all four of IN, NV, MT, and AZ, while the democrats are leading in MA and ND by 3-4%, just barely outside of lean D territory.
Ratings changes for week of 9/18-9/24:
Maine – from Safe D to Likely D
New Mexico – from Lean D to Likely D
Florida – from Lean D to Likely D
Virginia – from Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D
Montana – from Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R
Wisconsin – from Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean D
Arizona – from Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R
Safe D – VT, RI, NY, PA, DE, MD, WV, MN, CA, WA
Likely D – ME, NJ, FL, MI, NM, HI
Lean D – VA, OH, WI, MO
Toss Up/Tilt D – MA, CT, ND
Toss Up/Tilt R – IN, MT, NV, AZ
Lean R –
Likely R – NE
Safe R – TN, MS, TX, WY, UT
Democratic Pickups – ME, MA
Republican Pickups – NE, MT
New Senate Partisan Breakdown – 53 democrats, 47 republicans
Swing – Push
The Map:
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House –
Oh man, the battle for the House of Representatives is REALLY getting interesting now. We had a whole slew of ratings changes this week in favor of the democrats, and the margin for error for the republicans to keep the majority keeps getting thinner and thinner by the day. They still have it for now, but by next week that could change unless there is a change in national momentum.
There were 5 seats that switched columns this week, 4 from red to blue, and 1 from blue to red. CA-10, OH-6, and TX-23 became democratic pickups thanks to favorable polling from those districts that showed the democratic challenger either tied or leading. As we saw in 2010, basically any House incumbent that was either losing, or polling with 46% or less going into election day lost, and Jeff Denham, Bill Johnson, and Quico Canseco all fit that criteria. The fourth democratic pickup came in NV-3, where I was forced to discredit SurveyUSA’s polling in the Silver State after they showed Danny Tarkanian ahead of Stephen Horsford in nearby NV-4, a race I had at Safe D due to Tarkanian being bankrupt. Given this poll and last week’s ridiculous result in NV-3, I have to conclude that SUSA can’t poll Nevada to save their lives, on top of all pollsters generally underrating democratic performance in that state since 2008.
The one republican pickup came in GA-12, a district that has been on a razor’s edge all cycle. The overall polling out of Georgia hasn’t been a favorable as I would have expected, and that to me is just enough to knock out John Barrow and put the seat into the red column.
Bottom line, this week the Republicans still hold the majority with 222 seats, but that is down from 225 last week. The Democrats now hold 213 seats, and only need 5 more pickups to win the majority.
Current pollster.com regression – 45.8% democratic, 42.8% republican
Projected 2-party vote share – 51.64% democratic, 48.36% republican
Battleground PVI – R+1.64 (the PVI of all 105 competitive districts on the equal area map)
Battleground 2-party vote share – 50% democratic, 50% republican
New House Partisan Breakdown – 222 republicans, 213 democrats
Swing – Democrats +20
Beginning next week with my October 1 update, I will be listing margins of victory for every competitive House race. You won’t want to miss that.
The Equal Area Map:
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