September 10th Ratings Update –
Presidential – We’re currently in the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, and if the current slew of national polling is to be believed, then Barack Obama is surging ahead. At this time last week the race was pretty much tied and Romney might have even been ahead by a point or two. Now the script has flipped, and Obama is ahead by anywhere from four to seven points depending on who you believe. As with last week, I don’t take the convention bounces quite so seriously with regard to my predictions, but you can’t deny the effect Obama’s national surge is having on the electoral map.
Beginning this week, I will start posting each state’s projected vote share. The compilation of these numbers caused some states to change rating as well.
Ratings Changes from September 4th update:
South Carolina – Moves from Likely R to Lean R – I’m telling you, the Palmetto State is this year’s big sleeper in the presidential. This is a state that only went red by 9% in 2008, and has produced some surprisingly close results lately, namely when Vincent Sheheen nearly upset Nikki Haley in the 2010 governor’s race when nobody had it close. With the national numbers moving in Obama’s direction, don’t lose sight of this one, it could be closer than it appears.
Georgia – Moves from Likely R to Lean R – The Peach State also moves closer to the Toss Up zone with Obama’s lead widening. At this point its just a few points outside of that range. If Team Blue starts leading consistently by end of the debates, expect Obama to dump a huge amount of cash here.
Tennessee – Moves from Likely R to Safe R – There were some early poll numbers indicating that Tennessee was surprisingly close, but I think it was a mirage. With the new national-based weighting, the Volunteer State moves into the safe republican category.
Florida – Moves from Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D – Florida continues to be on a razor’s edge. Two surveys this past week showed Obama ahead by 1 point, which along with the national movement was good enough to barely nudge it back into the blue column. I have a feeling we’ll see this one continue to go back and forth.
Ohio – Moves from Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D – Ohio continues to swing back and forth from Toss Up and Lean D. Public Policy Polling’s latest survey has Obama up 50-45, and internal polling from the Obama campaign has the democrat up by 9. While I don’t put too much stock into internals usually, there has been an awful lot of consternation from Team Romney here. In the last week even his closest advisors have all but admitted he is behind.
North Dakota – Moves from Safe R to Likely R – This is mostly a national based move. The Senate race is the main focus here.
South Dakota – Moves from Safe R to Likely R – As North Dakota moves, so goes South Dakota. These were states that Obama did way better than Kerry in, even after accounting for the national swing.
Montana – Moves from Likely R to Lean R – Here’s another national move, though we should see some public polling here later this week. Could be interesting, not just in the presidential but more importantly in the Senate race.
Washington – Moves from Likely D to Safe D – With the national polling moving this week, Washington is now totally off the board and safe for Obama.
Electoral Vote Breakdown – Bottom line…it’s looking pretty grim for Romney at the moment. Even without toss ups, Obama has 265 electoral votes firmly in his column, meaning he only needs one of the 6 toss up states to win. Obama’s convention bounce will probably fade a little bit, but Romney will need to perform well in the debates to turn the tide.
The Map:
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Safe D – VT, MA, RI, NY, DE, MD, DC, IL, CA, WA, HI – 154 EV
Likely D – ME, CT, NJ, NM, OR – 37 EV
Lean D – NH, PA, OH, MI, MN, NV – 74 EV
Toss Up/Tilt D – VA, FL, WI, IA, CO – 67 EV
Toss Up/Tilt R – NC – 15 EV
Lean R – SC, GA, IN, MO, MT, AZ – 60 EV
Likely R – ND, SD – 6 EV
Safe R – WV, KY, TN, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX, OK, KS, NE, WY, ID, UT, AK – 125 EV
Total Obama EV - 332
Total Romney EV – 206
Popular Vote Projection:
National – Obama 50.67%, Romney 47.02%
DC – Obama 90-7
Hawaii – Obama 68-30
Vermont – Obama 64-34
New York – Obama 61-37
Rhode Island – Obama 60-37
Maryland – Obama 60-37
Illinois – Obama 60-38
California – Obama 60-38
Massachusetts – Obama 59-39
Delaware – Obama 58-40
Washington – Obama 56-41
Connecticut – Obama 55-42
Maine – Obama 55-43
Oregon – Obama 55-43
New Jersey – Obama 54-43
New Mexico – Obama 54-44
Minnesota – Obama 53-44
Michigan – Obama 53-45
Nevada – Obama 53-45
Pennsylvania – Obama 52-45
New Hampshire – Obama 52-46
Ohio – Obama 51-46
Virginia – Obama 51-47
Wisconsin – Obama 51-47
Colorado – Obama 51-47
Florida – Obama 50-48
North Carolina – Romney 50-48
Georgia – Romney 52-46
Indiana – Romney 52-46
Arizona – Romney 52-46
Missouri – Romney 52-45
Montana – Romney 52-45
South Carolina – Romney 53-44
South Dakota – Romney 54-43
North Dakota – Romney 55-42
Alaska – Romney 56-41
Texas – Romney 57-41
Kentucky – Romney 58-40
Mississippi – Romney 58-39
Nebraska – Romney 58-39
Kansas – Romney 58-39
Louisiana – Romney 59-39
Tennessee – Romney 59-38
Arkansas – Romney 60-37
West Virginia – Romney 61-37
Alabama – Romney 62-36
Wyoming – Romney 62-36
Idaho – Romney 62-36
Utah – Romney 64-34
Oklahoma – Romney 65-32
Senate –
It was a very sleepy week on the Senate front, with the only polls coming out basically confirming the ratings that I already had. As a result, the week is a wash, with no race ratings changing at all.
The Map:
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Safe D – ME, VT, RI, NY, PA, DE, MD, WV, MN, CA, WA
Likely D – NJ, MI, HI
Lean D – FL, OH, MO, NM
Toss Up/Tilt D – CT, VA, ND
Toss Up/Tilt R – MA, IN, MT, NV
Lean R – WI, AZ
Likely R – NE
Safe R – TN, MS, TX, WY, UT
Democratic Pickups – ME
Republican Pickups – NE, WI, MT
New Senate Partisan Breakdown – 51 democrats, 49 republicans
Swing – Republicans +2
House –
There were a fair amount of house polls this week, but we’re still waiting for an uptick of public polling in the swing districts and I hope it comes soon. Otherwise, I’m going to be forced to start making moves based on the expected distribution of the national house vote, similar to what I did this week for the presidential vote.
The bottom line though, is that there was no change in the partisan breakdown of the new house this week. The six ratings changes were a bit of a mixed bag, with four of the moves (CA-47, OK-2, NY-21, and MN-6, favorable for the democrats, the other two (NY-19 and FL-3) good for the republicans.
New House Partisan Breakdown – 228 republicans, 207 democrats
Swing – Democrats +14
The Equal Area Projection:
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