Good day again, fellow DKE'ers. As promised, this is the first of my series of weekly updates on the state of the election race. Each week between now and election day, we'll go through all the ratings for the Presidency, the Senate, and the House. Today we find a presidential race that looks pretty good for Barack Obama, a Senate contest that is tight but leans slightly toward the Democrats retaining control of the chamber, and a House contest that the Republicans have a decent handle on.
August 27 Race Ratings Update –
President:
The last time I did ratings back on August 3rd, Barack Obama was doing extremely well, up at least 3-4% in national polling and up by at least that much if not more in the major swing states, which was enough for me to move a lot of them into the lean D category. Since the naming of Paul Ryan to the ticket, Romney has seen a bit of movement in his direction, prompting 7 ratings changes in his direction. That being said, Obama still leads by quite a bit in the Electoral College at the moment. What Romney can say is that the map has evolved in a manner in which he has a foreseeable path to victory, which I didn’t think he had a month ago.
Of the toss up states, I feel pretty strongly that VA, OH, and WI would go blue if the election were today, and that NC would go red. CO would probably stay blue though it might be a long night on election night. IA and FL seem to be a dead tie, perhaps headed toward a recount, they are extremely, extremely hard to call.
The Map:
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Safe D – 142 EV – VT, MA, RI, NY, DE, DC, MD, IL, CA, HI
Likely D – 49 EV – ME, CT, NJ, NM, OR, WA
Lean D – 55 EV – NH, PA, MI, MN, NV
Toss Up/Tilt D – 56 EV – VA, OH, WI, IA, CO
Toss Up/Tilt R – 44 EV – FL, NC
Lean R – 32 EV – IN, MO, AZ
Likely R – 39 EV – SC, GA, TN, MT
Safe R – 120 EV – WV, KY, AL, MS, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, ID, UT, AK
Total Obama – 302 EV
Total Romney – 235 EV
Moves since August 3 update:
North Dakota – From Likely R to Safe R – Polling has shown Mitt Romney with considerable leads here, generally between 15-20 points. With the oil boom going on there, I believe that the state has likely moved rightward at the national level since 2008, and polling confirms that.
South Dakota – From Likely R to Safe R – South Dakota votes almost exactly the same as North Dakota at the national level, so even though I haven’t seen much polling here, this move makes sense. Romney is probably up by at least 15 points.
Montana – From Lean R to Likely R – There have been some pretty good polls for Romney out of the Dakotas and there have been several from Montana as well putting him up double digits over the president. This state is very similar to the Dakotas, so it seems natural to move it too.
Ohio – From Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D – This move is an obvious one, but Ohio remains very close to the Lean D column right now. Obama’s aggregate lead back on August 3 was near 5%, now its down to about 3%. Romney still has a lot of work to do in the Buckeye State, but at least for him its somewhat within reach.
Wisconsin – From Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D – I’m not sure what to make of Wisconsin. The state was a pretty safe one for Obama prior to Paul Ryan’s selection, then a whole bunch of polls came out showing it close. So far the Romney campaign hasn’t made a significant effort here and neither has Obama. We’ll keep an eye on it.
Minnesota – From Likely D to Lean D – The whole upper Midwest seems to be weakening a bit for Obama, so even though I haven’t seen any polling here in a while, I’m going to move Minnesota into the lean column as well.
Colorado – From Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D – This is one state where Romney’s standing has definitely gotten better over the past month. Polls are showing a pretty tight race. Out of all the toss up states tilting toward Obama, this is probably the least sure so far. Romney is currently running tons of ads here, which makes sense.
Senate:
While the race for the presidency has gotten somewhat more republican-friendly over the past month, the race for control of the Senate has not. Everybody will focus on Todd Akin’s implosion in Missouri, but there have been other races that have moved in the democratic direction since last month’s update as well. Not all moves were democrat-friendly though. The seat breakdown did not change from last month’s 51-49, but 2 seats on each side ended up changing hands. What is notable is that for the first time all year, the republicans are defending just as much tossup territory (Massachusetts, Indiana, and Nevada) as the democrats are (Virginia, Montana, North Dakota). That’s not a good omen for their chances of flipping control of the Senate, and as of now, they are winning 4 of these 6 races, so they would have to sweep the tossups 6-0 to win control assuming Obama wins the presidency, a Romney victory would mean they would need to go 5-1 to win a 50-50 tie scenario.
The Map:
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Total Democratic Pickups – 1 – Maine
Total Republican Pickups – 3 – Nebraska, Montana, Wisconsin
National Swing – Republicans +2
New Senate Breakdown – 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans
Safe D – 10 seats – ME, VT, RI, NY, PA, MD, WV, MN, CA, WA
Likely D – 3 seats – NJ, CT, MI
Lean D – 4 seats – FL, OH, MO, NM
Toss Up/Tilt D – 2 seats – VA, ND
Toss Up/Tilt R – 4 seats – MA, IN, MT, NV
Lean R – 2 seats – WI, AZ
Likely R – 1 seat – NE
Safe R – 5 seats – TN, MS, TX, WY, UT
Massachusetts – From Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – It simply baffles my mind that Scott Brown is ahead of Elizabeth Warren. I never thought that Brown in a year that could decide control of the Senate could get the needed crossover Obama voters to vote for him, but his personal appeal and likeability has him marginally in front. Warren shouldn’t have reason to panic though, this will be a fight all the way.
Florida – From Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D – Bill Nelson got a bunch of bad polls thrown his way last month as republican Connie Mack IV seemed to be surging, but his momentum has stagnated, and most polling now shows what we thought all along, that Nelson is running 4-5% ahead of Barack Obama, mostly pulling in white voters in north Florida where Obama is likely getting crushed. Mack still has a chance, just not as strong a chance as before.
Wisconsin – From Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean R – This is a big move, as the republicans nominated their strongest possible candidate in former governor Tommy Thompson, while the democrats nominated an openly lesbian, uber-liberal in representative Tammy Baldwin. Thompson is ahead by upper single digits although its not clear if this is a post-primary bounce or something more significant. We’ll continue to watch it.
Missouri – From Lean R to Lean D – Huge move here, and it is because of Todd Akin going completely nuclear in his views about rape. Claire McCaskill was in bad shape prior to this happening but is now clearly ahead now that the dust has settled.
North Dakota – From Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D – Rick Berg’s unpopularity as a congressman coupled with Heidi Heitkamp’s strong likeability and campaigning to this point has changed what should’ve been a GOP victory into a race where they are now behind. Given that Romney is killing Obama here, what democrat Heitkamp has been able to accomplish is amazing. Polling has her ahead by 3-6 points, so this is actually closer to Lean D than a republican pickup at the moment.
The House of Representatives:
The race for the House of Representatives has changed little in the last week. 7 districts had their ratings changed, with only 1 seat changing sides. Cheri Bustos, for whatever reason, has been polling very poorly against republican incumbent Bobby Schilling in IL-17. What should be a clear democratic pickup in a district that voted 60-38 Obama in 2008 seems to be in doubt. It moves back to the red column for the time being, giving us a breakdown of 230 Republicans and 205 Democrats. That is a net gain of Democrats +12.
The Equal Area Map:
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