Part 5 – The Eastern Great Lakes
We’ve now reached our fifth region in our trip around the United States. This region houses the states of Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana. This region was one of the worst, maybe the worst for the Democrats in 2010 as they dropped two seats each in Indiana and Michigan and dropped an incredible 5 in Ohio. The 2010 redistricting saw the republicans not really playing offense here but trying to lock in their gains for the most part. They drew some fairly strong maps, particularly in Ohio, but the democrats will have areas in which they can crack the defense.
National Recap:
Northeast Region (D+2):
Democrats pick up NH-1, NH-2, NY-24
Republicans pick up NY-27
Mid-Atlantic Region (D+1):
Democrats pick up NJ-3, MD-6
Republicans pick up PA-12
Upper South Region (R+3):
Democrats pick up no seats
Republicans pick up NC-8, NC-11, NC-13
South Atlantic Region (D+2)
Democrats pick up FL-9, FL-18, FL-22
Republicans pick up SC-7
National Swing = D+2
OH-1 – We start this region down in Cincinnati, which was ruthlessly split up and had its west side attached with the most republican county in the state, Warren County. Overall this seat is now R+6, right on the fringes of what would normally be competitive. Steve Chabot will look to hold this seat for the republicans and he should. Democrat Jeff Sinnard, who ran for OH-2 but lost in the primary in 2006 is opposing him, but he’s cashless.
Rating – Safe R
OH-2 – This seat was home to Jean Schmidt, and the republicans made a dangerous move, turning this safe seat bluer, to R+8, which Schmidt would’ve lost in 2006 and 2008. But in a stroke of luck for the GOP, Schmidt was defeated in the primary by physician Brad Wenstrup. This essentially takes the pickup attempt off the board, as the democrats top candidate, David Krikorian, was taken out by William Smith, a cashless nobody.
Rating – Safe R
OH-3 – This is the newly drawn seat in Columbus, which from the air looks something like a 4-leaf clover. The democratic candidate is Joyce Beatty, a former state house minority leader. She’ll have no trouble winning in November.
Rating – Safe D
OH-4 – This insidious gerrymander stretches all the way from Urbana, hometown of Jim Jordan all the way up to Lorain County and its biggest town of Elyria. Jim Jordan is the representative, and he’ll win it easily as he faces just token opposition.
Rating – Safe R
OH-5 – This is a seat that used to be solidly republican and is still ancestrally so, but is starting to turn blue. Bob Latta has basically been a backbencher, but is tough to dislodge in this R+5 district. The democratic candidate is Lucas County School Board member Angela Zimmann. Her fundraising hasn’t been great, but at 191k raised and over 100k in the bank, she’s doing better than your standard run of the mill candidate. Still, she’ll need a major swing in momentum from somewhere to win.
Rating – Likely Republican
OH-6 – This seat is the site of a juicy matchup. Bill Johnson pulled off a bit of an upset in this ancestrally democratic but trending rightward district along the Ohio River. His 2010 opponent, former congressman Charlie Wilson, is back for a rematch. Johnson has been fundraising well, he’s raised 1.43 million this cycle and has 910k in the bank. Wilson has done fairly well but is behind by about 2-1 at 686k raised and 401k in the bank. This is a race in which Johnson has the advantage, but its not a big one. Wilson won’t go quietly.
Rating – Leans Republican
OH-7 – This is definitely the dark-horse race in Ohio this year. Bob Gibbs, outside of Steve Austria who saw his district dissappear, got the rawest deal for the GOP. His district not only got bluer, from R+7 to R+4, but it also covers 75% new territory for Gibbs, taking in some suburban and exurban territory in Lorain, Medina, and Stark County. Gibbs has been a strong fundraiser at 1.19 million and 850k in the bank. His democratic opponent is Joyce Healy-Abrams, who has done decently on the fundraising front at 410k raised and 234k in the bank. In what is effectively an open-seat contest, if Healy-Abrams can campaign well and make a little stronger push on the fundraising, this could be an upset in the making.
Rating – Leans Republican
OH-8 - This is the home district of House Speaker John Boehner. He is unopposed.
Rating – Safe R
OH-9 – This district is just lolzy. It stretches all the way along Lake Erie from Toledo to Cleveland. This seat saw a brutal democratic primary between Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich, which was won by Kaptur. The general election promises to be just as lolzy, as Kaptur’s republican opponent is Joe “the plumber” Wurzelbacher. Kaptur is actually in debt after the primary, but with just 18k on hand, Wurzelbacher isn’t in a position to take advantage. Plus, the seat is D+10. Kaptur will win.
Rating – Safe D
OH-10 – The tenth district is centered on Dayton. This seat is one that is somewhat marginal in terms of PVI, in fact it was the closest district in the nation in 2008, one that Obama won over MccCain by 13 votes! Mike Turner, the former mayor of Dayton, is the representative here and is extremely popular. Democrat Sharon Neuhardt, the 2008 candidate, is back for another go in 2010, and while I don’t like her chances on paper, Turner’s fundraising is a bit of an eyebrow raiser, as Neuhardt only trails 311k to 225k in the cash on hand race. That and the PVI is enough to put the race on the board, but it’ll take a whale of a campaign by Neuhardt to win.
Rating – Likely Republican
OH-11 – This seat is one of the most democratic in the nation, and is basically a racial gerrymander linking eastern Cleveland with black parts of Akron. Marcia Fudge is the representative here, and she is unopposed.
Rating – Safe D
OH-12 – Patrick Tiberi once sat in a red seat, but it moved way out from under him in the past decade as Columbus zoomed to the left. The republicans decided to vote sink Columbus, spreading OH-12 to the north central part of the state. Its now R+8 in PVI, and Tiberi still has a sizeable warchest of 1.27 million cash on hand. Which he won’t be needing, since he faces a cashless nobody in James Reese in November.
Rating – Safe R
OH-13 – This democratic district stretches from Youngstown to Akron, and is a 62% Obama seat. Tim Ryan is the democratic rep here, and though he faces a nominal challenge from republican Marisha Agana, this race won’t be competitive.
Rating – Safe D
OH-14 – What looked to be a snoozer seat just days ago turned on its head when Steven LaTourette abruptly announced his retirement. Since this occurred after the primary, the GOP will have to announce a candidate to take his place on the ballot. This district is R+3, and would be a nice pickup opportunity for Team Blue, but their candidate is a cashless nobody in Dale Blanchard. The Ohio Democratic Party could try to force him off the ballot, but Blanchard has said he would rather switch parties than budge. This stinks. Any R candidate would beat him.
Rating – Safe R
OH-15 – Like Patrick Tiberi, Steve Stivers was helped by the new Columbus vote sink, which moved his district out into more rural country. Its now an R+6 district at 52% McCain. Also like Tiberi he has a warchest of over 1 million cash on hand as he was anticipating a more competitive district. The democrat here is Pat Lang, yet another cashless nobody.
Rating – Safe R
OH-16 – Now this is going to be one of the most closely fought races of the cycle, and it’s my home district as well! Here you have two sitting representatives, Jim Renacci of Wadsworth and Betty Sutton of Copley, battling to represent their new merged district that extends from near Canton through the west and southwest suburbs of Cleveland and Akron. Officially the district is R+4, but it covers territory that seems to be reeking in buyers remorse over John Kasich’s election 2 years ago. Polling right now shows either a tie or Sutton with a small lead. Not that I put a lot of stock in house polling this early on, but in a race where both combatants are well known already, people’s opinions of them are somewhat baked in. This will likely go right down to the wire, but I like Sutton to edge Renacci and pick this one up for the democrats.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Democratic (9th democratic pickup)
National Score – Democrats +3
IN-1 – This seat stretches from Gary and the Chicago suburbs down the western border of the state. Pete Visclosky is the democratic representative here, despite his ethical issues, he should have no trouble surviving in this strongly D seat.
Rating – Safe D
IN-2 – This should be a really tight race. Democrat Joe Donnelly is running for the Senate, so this seat is open. It became slightly more republican in redistricting, dropping from 53% Obama to 50%, so in an even year it will likely go for the GOP candidate, but not by a lot. Republican Jackie Walorski, aka Wacky Jackie, was so wacky far to the right that she couldn’t win this district in the midst of a red wave that hit particularly hard in the lower Midwest in 2010. The district is open this year and she’s fundraising well though, at 1.13 million raised and 796k on hand, but the democratic candidate, Brendan Mullen, is doing well too, at 804k raised and 575k on hand. This has the makings of a race that will go right down to the wire and believe it or not, I think if Mullen campaigns well he wins because of how batshit crazy Walorski is.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Democratic
IN-3 – The Fort Wayne-based 3rd is an extremely republican district. He’s got nothing to worry about in his battle against little-known democrat Kevin Boyd.
Rating – Safe R
IN-4 – The 4th district takes in much of the western part of the state and includes some of Indianapolis’s very red suburbs. Todd Rokita is the republican representative and he will win easily against underfunded challenger Tara Nelson.
Rating – Safe R
IN-5 – This district would have been very intriguing had corrupt representative Dan Burton not retired. The district was once hugely republican but is now 46% Obama after redistricting as it moved into some blue areas in northern Indianapolis. In all honesty, this could be the sleeper race in Indiana, as the republican standard bearer, Susan Brooks, isn’t well funded and has just 123k on hand. The democratic candidate has a decent profile too, as state representative Scott Reske is in the race. His fundraising has been somewhat underwhelming to this point at 284k, but he’s just barely behind Brooks in cash on hand. If Reske can pick up the fundraising pace, who knows what could happen. Brooks has the edge because of the PVI though.
Rating – Likely Republican
IN-6 – This seat in eastern Indiana is fairly solidly republican. There was a ridiculously crowded primary on the republican side here which was won by 2010 IN-5 candidate Luke Messer. He should cruise in November against anonymous democrat Bradley Bookout.
Rating – Safe R
IN-7 – This seat is a democratic sink in Indianapolis. Andre Carson is unopposed.
Rating – Safe D
IN-8 – Ah yes, the Bloody Eighth of Indiana. This seat is a seemingly perennial battleground, and 2010 was no different as Larry Bucshon won the open seat for the republicans. The district got nominally more democratic in redistricting, but is still somewhat red as McCain won by 3% in 2008 over Barack Obama. Bucshon hasn’t fundraised as well as most endangered incumbents, raising just 844k and holding just 475k on hand. His democratic opponent, Dave Crooks, has raised 742k total and holds the cash on hand lead at 530k. That is impressive, and certainly a red flag for the republican incumbent. For now I’m still giving Bucshon the benefit of the doubt…barely, because of the district’s PVI, but this is a very possible pickup for Team Blue, sure to be close.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Republican
IN-9 – This seat was another perennial battleground in southern Indiana, the site of the warfare waged by Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel. As luck would have it, both men are out now, Sodrel a primary casualty and Hill a loser in the general against republican Todd Young. This seat got somewhat more republican in 2010 redistricting, going to 53% McCain from 50%, so Young has a considerable advantage. His opponent, Shelli Yoder, is somewhere higher up from a cashless dudette, but isn’t really much of a threat.
Rating – Safe R
MI-1 – We now move into Michigan, and immediately we run into a competitive race. The race between republican Dan Benishek and democrat Gary McDowell was one of the most hotly contested in 2010. The district barely changed in redistricting, and both are back for a rematch. As of now, Benishek has raised more cash at 1.27 million to 926k, but McDowell holds the cash on hand lead at 621k, always an ominous sign for an incumbent. This is also territory that is ancestrally more democratic than the presidential toplines (50-48 Obama) would suggest. I feel that McDowell probably would have held this seat in anything but a massive red wave, and at this point is the slight favorite to pick it up for the democrats.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Democratic (10th democratic pickup)
National Score – Democrats +4
MI-2 – The western 2nd CD is the most republican in Michigan, and republican Bill Huizenga is running unopposed.
Rating – Safe R
MI-3 – The Grand Rapids-based 3rd CD was drawn south into Battle Creek in order to stop former congressman Mark Schauer from running against Tim Walberg again, but as a result it turned slightly more democratic, into a 50-49 Obama district. Tea partier Justin Amash holds the seat, and he’s amassed a voting record that makes him look somewhat like the Dennis Kucinich of the right, voting against his own party’s bills from the right. This has earned him some scorn from the establishment, which might reflect in his iffy fundraising. He has raised just 902k this cycle, compared with 798k for his opponent, former state representative Steve Pestka. Worse yet for Amash, Pestka holds the cash on hand lead at 452k to 411k according to race tracker. If Pestka camapaigns well, this is another good chance at a democratic pickup. The one thing that concerns me here is that MI-3 is for the most part ancestrally republican, so right now I given Amash the slight edge.
Rating – Lean Republican
MI-4 – This central Michigan seat is home to Dave Camp, an entrenched incumbent. At R+3 this seat would be in the crosshairs for Team Blue if open, but Debra Wirth is trying anyway. She’s cashless and doesn’t have much of a shot.
Rating – Safe R
MI-5 – Dale Kildee is retiring, which has set up an open seat, but this seat is a democratic vote sink taking in Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City. The democratic candidate is Dan Kildee, which reeks of nepotism. Two cashless and nameless republicans are looking to challenge him, but I don’t see this race being competitive.
Rating – Safe D
MI-6 – This is a seat that would be competitive were it not for the fact that Fred Upton is one of the most entrenched incumbents in the House. It has an even PVI and was 54% Obama in 2008. Democrat Mike O’Brien is in the race, mostly as a standby just in case somehow 2008 Senate candidate Jack Hoogendyk can upset Upton in the primary. Unless that happens, there won’t be anything to see here.
Rating – Safe R
MI-7 – This race disgusts me. Weapons grade wingnut Tim Walberg, who lost this seat in 2008 only to come back and win it in 2010, should be one of the top targets for Team Blue this cycle. Instead, cashless nobody Kurt Haskell is the democratic candidate, despite Walberg’s loony-ness and the districts R+1 PVI. Major recruiting fail here.
Rating – Safe R
MI-8 – Another major recruiting fail here as the democrats failed to find even a second-tier challenger to incumbent Mike Rogers. Admittedly Rogers is more entrenched than Walberg, but this seat is also more democratic. Alas, cashless Some Dudes Lance Enderle and Michael Magdich have no shot unless something dramatic happens.
Rating – Safe R
MI-9 – This district north of Detroit got more republican in redistricting, and is down to D+6, but that shouldn’t be a problem for Sandy Levin, as he’s entrenched. 2010 republican candidate Don Volaric and Gregory DilDilian are jockeying for the chance to face Levin in November, but neither has the wherewithal to be competitive.
Rating – Safe D
MI-10 – This district is one of the most republican in Michigan, and basically takes in the thumb of the state. Candice Miller is the GOP rep, and she doesn’t have much to worry about here. Henry Yanez and Jerome Quinn are in the democratic primary, but they are cashless and have to fight against an R+5 current.
Rating – Safe R
MI-11 – Wowzer. This district is hot, mostly because of Thad McCotter not getting enough signatures to get on the ballot, after which he retired. This has set off a mad dash on the republican side as the only candidate on the ballot, 2010 state senate candidate Kerry Bentivolio, is a paulist libertarian type that nobody in the establishment likes. Establishment candidate Nancy Cassis is trying to run a write-in campaign to beat Bentvolio. On the democratic side, Syed Taj is the candidate. All 3 candidates have little cash on hand, less than 150k, so that part of the equation is neutralized. Politically, this district was shored up from Even to R+3 in redistricting, but with as crazy a race as this has become, its anyone’s game. My guess is that Taj would beat Bentvolio but lose to Cassis.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Republican
MI-12 – John Dingell is a House legend, having served for many decades. His seat has been redrawn closer to Detroit and is still extremely democratic. Republican Karen Jacobsen is running to beat him, but she has no chance in this 67% Obama district.
Rating – Safe D
MI-13 – The two VRA seats in Detroit ended up getting extended into outlying counties, especially Oakland County, due to population loss. John Conyers is running for re-election here, and he has a lot of competition to clear in the primary, the steepest challenger being state senator Glenn Anderson, who has the cash on hand lead. Unfortunately for Anderson this primary has a bit of a clown car feel to it. Ultimately it matters not who wins since its 82% Obama.
Rating – Safe D
MI-14 – With Gary Peters’s district being taken away, Peters has elected to seek re-election in this VRA district extending out from Detroit. This is the home of representative Hansen Clarke, and as a black majority seat he should be the favorite. However, Peters is winning due to a sort of racial based clown car effect as many minority candidates have jumped into the race, led by Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence. Again though, no matter who wins the primary it’ll be an easy win for the democrat in what is one of the most democratic districts in the nation.
Rating – Safe D
REGION WRAPUP – The Eastern Great Lakes is an intriguing region for Team Blue because the republicans basically maxed out here in 2010, aside from picking up IN-2 which they might do this year. As of now I have the Republicans gaining no seats here, and the Democrats picking up 2 seats in MI-1 and OH-16 for a regional +2, and a national +4 through 5 regions.
The best case for the republicans is probably a +1, in which they pick up IN-2 and don’t lose any seats. The best scenario for the democrats is likely a +6, in which they hold IN-2, pick up IN-8, MI-1, MI-11, OH-16, OH-6, and then either of MI-3 or OH-7. In a year in which House dems pick up a decent wave of support, this could easily happen as most of these seats are republican-leaning, but not overly (R+2 to R+4)